This time I would like tentatively to share some of the insights of Mr. Murray Hiebert, a senior associate (non-resident) of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.
His theme is: Fallout in Southeast Asia of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.
Southeast Asian nations have been rather subdued in their responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although all but two—Vietnam and Laos—voted in the United Nations in early March to condemn Moscow’s aggression.
The fighting erupted thousands of miles away, but the effects, particularly of the sanctions imposed by the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia, and others, will still have economic reverberations in Southeast Asia.
Overall, Russia and Ukraine are relatively minor economic players in Southeast Asia, with Russia making up just over 0.64 percent of global trade with the region while Ukraine accounts for just 0.11 percent, according to ASEANstats.
But Moscow’s Economic Development Ministry has said that it will work to boost trade and economic links with Asia to balance sanctions.
The biggest economic impact overall on people’s lives in Southeast Asia will likely be the inflation caused by the rapid rise in the price of oil and gas in the wake of the fighting, which will increase the costs of production and transport.
But Russia and Ukraine are also major exporters of agricultural inputs, food grains, and critical minerals needed for semiconductors, which could cause further shortages in Southeast Asia.
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