In this article, I would like to introduce part of the sound argument of Japanese defense experts.
In October last year, Taiwan's Minister of National Defense indicated that a full-scale invasion by China would be possible by 2025.
Also, in June last year, the Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command stated in the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that China's invasion of Taiwan would rise to a level where it would be possible after 2027.
Based on these assumptions, in the worst case scenario, the risk of a Taiwan-China conflict breaking out after 2025-2027 will increase.
(1)A looming Japanese emergency
If Taiwan becomes an emergency, Japan will also become an emergency.
In addition, for the purpose of separating Japan and the United States, the entire Japanese archipelago will be subjected to China's gray zone attacks (attacks that do not lead to armed attacks) by means of cyber-attacks, economic threats, political maneuvering, and information maneuvering such as fake news.
In the worst case, it is necessary to prepare for the threat of a nuclear attack.
The power of the United States is also becoming relatively weak.
In April last year, at a meeting of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, the commander of U.S. Strategic Command clarified the limits of U.S. nuclear deterrence against China.
Furthermore, last year, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command reportedly reported to the Pentagon that conventional forces may not be able to stop the expansion of Chinese military hegemony into the Western Pacific.
In this way, what should Japan do at a time when an emergency in Japan is looming, and when the era of "it's OK because the US military will help us in times of crisis" is about to pass away?
At the end of this year, the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Program Outline, and the Medium-term Defense Force Development Plan will be finalized.
These are the basic policies that will determine the fate of Japan and guarantee its survival and development. If Japan's defense capability does not become truly "battle-ready" and "defensible," it should be aware of the danger that Japan is destined to be swallowed by China.
Discussion of figures lacking a sense of crisis
It has been reported that the ratio of defense spending to GDP in FY2021 will be 0.95% by the Japanese government's standards and 1.24% by the standards of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
In the current difficult situation where Japan is at the forefront of the new Cold War between the U.S. and China, insisting on 1% is itself a lack of awareness of the changing security environment.
In addition, as in the Nikkei newspaper article of December 31, there is an argument that Japan should reduce its land defense capability, just like the Chinese military.
While the strategies of a country seeking to expand its hegemony outside its borders and Japan's strategy based on national defense are completely different, a simple comparison of the ratio of land, sea and air forces between the two shows a lack of strategic thinking and an opinion that ignores the essence of national defense.
Both arguments are based on numbers, but the important thing is to look at it from the perspective of, "Can this really protect the lives of the people?
It is time for Japan to face the crisis it is currently facing head on and show its seriousness in building a system that will truly protect the people. (End)
