The current conflict in Ukraine is at a crossroads. Peace talks are positive, but Russia continues to attack Ukrainian cities and stage for large-scale combat operations on multiple fronts.
It is increasingly unlikely Russia can hold even the limited gains it is making in Ukraine.
As a result, the war will likely enter a new phase, more like the “frozen conflicts” Russia has used to destabilize its neighbors since the fall of the Soviet Union than current large-scale combat operations.
The West needs to start preparing now for that phase and reducing Russia’s advantages in future competition.
