I would like tentatively to share the insights of Mr. Steven Philip Kramer, a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
His title is “Does Ukraine Change Everything? Whatever the final results in Ukraine, Russia has shown itself to be far less than a great power.”
The French philosopher Michel de Montaigne said in his wonderfully ironic way, “I have seen the birth of several miracles in my time.”
We too have witnessed several turning points, one miraculous and one diabolical, after which we were told that “nothing would ever be the same again”: the end of the Cold War and 9/11.
Hegel was right, the owl of Minerva only sets sail after sunset. It takes a long time to evaluate the historical meaning of such events.
9/11, the American responses, and their repercussions appear to be a one-off. In geostrategic terms, the end of the Cold War was far more important.
Yet it too turned out to be ephemeral, since the issues supposedly resolved by the end of the Cold War have been reopened with violence by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
We are now faced with daunting questions that will take years to answer.
What kind of Russia will we face after the Ukraine invasion?
What will be its reach in Europe?
Will Europe move towards greater unity, including in the realm of defense, because of the Ukraine crisis?
How will China respond and what will be its role in a changed international environment?
