I would like tentatively to share the insights of Mr. William Reinsch who holds the Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
His theme is “Predicting the Future.”
"As Yogi Berra said, it’s hard to make predictions, particularly about the future. I’m going to try anyway, but rather than focus on the immediate—the war in Ukraine—I will look at longer-term implications, although the war, along with the pandemic and the challenge of China, underlies all of them and suggests the future will be a different world in a number of ways."
"Overall, we are heading for a more fragmented, compartmentalized world. It will not be a Soviet Union–style cold war—the world is, and will remain, too economically integrated for that—but we should expect countries to look out for themselves at the expense of the rules-based system and at the expense of poor countries. To the extent there is cooperation, it will be among democratic rule-of-law states on one side and authoritarian states on the other."
