Will Daniel
Sat, May 7, 2022, 2:36 AM·3 min read
Lane Turner—The Boston Globe/Getty Images
In this article:
Wall Street titan Jeremy Grantham has been warning of a “superbubble” in the U.S. since last year, arguing the S&P 500 is set to be cut in half as an era marked by exceedingly risky investor behavior begins to fade.
Now, the cofounder and chief investment strategist of the Boston-based asset management firm Grantham, Mayo, and van Otterloo (GMO) is warning the U.S. may be headed toward a housing crisis as mortgage rates soar, and the effects on the economy could be devastating.
So far, his prediction about the S&P 500 has proved to be prescient, if a little dramatic, as the index is now down roughly 15% year to date. Stocks, particularly in the once high-flying tech sector, have been hammered as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in hopes of combating levels of inflation not seen in four decades.
Grantham argues the U.S. economy can weather dramatic drops in the stock market, as evidenced by the merely mild recession that surrounded tech stocks’ blowup during the dotcom bubble. But when it comes to a housing crisis, he says, the economy is unlikely to come through unscathed.
The dotcom bubble of “2000 showed you can just about skate through a stock market event, but Japan and 2008 showed you can’t skate through a housing crisis,” Grantham told Bloomberg in an interview published on Friday.
Grantham is convinced that we’re in the midst of a fifth great bubble of the modern era, following the Wall Street crash of 1929, the Japanese asset bubble of 1989, the dotcom blowup in 2000, and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
He argues that both stocks and the housing market have been lifted to unsustainable levels owing to speculation from investors and unsustainably loose monetary policies from the Federal Reserve.
Grantham—who is well known for accurately predicting the housing bubble and subsequent crash of 2008—warned late last year that a “day of reckoning” for the housing market would come.
Now, with interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rising to 5.27% this week, their highest levels since 2009, he sees that point coming ever closer.
ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー
コメント
ついに、金利高によってバブル崩壊が近いか？
Sat, May 7, 2022, 2:36 AM·3 min read
Lane Turner—The Boston Globe/Getty Images
In this article:
Wall Street titan Jeremy Grantham has been warning of a “superbubble” in the U.S. since last year, arguing the S&P 500 is set to be cut in half as an era marked by exceedingly risky investor behavior begins to fade.
Now, the cofounder and chief investment strategist of the Boston-based asset management firm Grantham, Mayo, and van Otterloo (GMO) is warning the U.S. may be headed toward a housing crisis as mortgage rates soar, and the effects on the economy could be devastating.
So far, his prediction about the S&P 500 has proved to be prescient, if a little dramatic, as the index is now down roughly 15% year to date. Stocks, particularly in the once high-flying tech sector, have been hammered as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in hopes of combating levels of inflation not seen in four decades.
Grantham argues the U.S. economy can weather dramatic drops in the stock market, as evidenced by the merely mild recession that surrounded tech stocks’ blowup during the dotcom bubble. But when it comes to a housing crisis, he says, the economy is unlikely to come through unscathed.
The dotcom bubble of “2000 showed you can just about skate through a stock market event, but Japan and 2008 showed you can’t skate through a housing crisis,” Grantham told Bloomberg in an interview published on Friday.
Grantham is convinced that we’re in the midst of a fifth great bubble of the modern era, following the Wall Street crash of 1929, the Japanese asset bubble of 1989, the dotcom blowup in 2000, and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
He argues that both stocks and the housing market have been lifted to unsustainable levels owing to speculation from investors and unsustainably loose monetary policies from the Federal Reserve.
Grantham—who is well known for accurately predicting the housing bubble and subsequent crash of 2008—warned late last year that a “day of reckoning” for the housing market would come.
Now, with interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rising to 5.27% this week, their highest levels since 2009, he sees that point coming ever closer.
ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー
コメント
ついに、金利高によってバブル崩壊が近いか？
アクセス
トータル
ランキング
今年から米国株始めました。
現在、合計150ドルのマイナス。
NISA で買ってます。
日本の会社も買ってます。
日本は合計3千円くらいプラス。
全部合計で2万円くらいマイナスで笑うしかないです。
今日は司法書士の本試験でした。
今年は停電になり、50分中断しました。
試験の手応えは全くありません。
いい加減にやめるべきなんだろうと思って帰ってきました。