日銀会合、 FOMCを終えて
完全にノーマークでした。
After the Bank of Japan meeting and the FOMC meeting
I was completely off the radar. I never thought it would go up to 158 yen. My prediction was wrong, I didn't think the Fed would lower the interest rate by 0.25. In the press conference immediately after, Powell suggested that the number of interest rate cuts next year would be reduced from the previous forecast of four to two. This is the reason why the dollar rose despite the interest rate cut. It seems that there will be a battle between caution against foreign exchange intervention and a strong dollar toward the end of the year. The range is from 153 yen to 159 yen.
https://youtu.be/68u64heSjxs?si=6SNAnD3052A51oKq
今週ついに日銀会合とFOMCがあります。1$155¥
FOMCも変更はないと思います。
This week, the Bank of Japan meeting and the FOMC will finally take place. I expect the rate to be 155 yen per dollar. Last December, Ueda's challenging remarks caused the yen to appreciate before the Bank of Japan meeting, but in the end there was no interest rate hike.
I don't think there will be any changes to the FOMC. Although the employment statistics were somewhat poor, the CPI is showing signs of increasing, so I think Powell will hold off on cutting interest rates this year.
2,024年12月20日日銀会合に向けて結論から言うと155
- 1.今年の夏に0.25ポイント上げたため11月の雇用統計も悪
そうなので円高に触れる場面はあったとしても結局利上げはしない とおもいます。 - 2. また、
トランプの1月の就任に向けて米株市場の高まりと共に債権金利が 上がるため結局円安になりドルも強くなるだろうと思います。
背景:ピンクモスク
In conclusion, I expect the rate to rise to 155 yen ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on December 20, 2024.
- [ ] 1. Since the rate was raised by 0.25 points this summer, the employment statistics for November look bad, so even if there are times when the yen may appreciate, I don't think there will be an interest rate hike after all.
- [ ] 2. Also, with the US stock market rising ahead of Trump's inauguration in January, bond interest rates will rise, so I think the yen will weaken and the dollar will strengthen.
Background: Pink Mosque