Civilizations and value 20 (industrial revolution, natural disasters, diplomacy)

*3 New industrial revolution

It is commonly referred to as the fourth industrial revolution. However, what is usually called the second industrial revolution is when the power source changed from coal to oil, and what is called the third industrial revolution is when computers and the Internet were introduced. Rather, it may be better to combine the first and second industrial revolutions, and the third and fourth industrial revolutions. This is because the nature or classification of each revolution becomes clearer. In English, it would be like adding " great" to " industrial revolution " . Based on this nomenclature, the essence of the first great industrial revolution is the ``substitution of manual labor by machines.'' In contrast, the essence of the second great industrial revolution is the ``replacement of mental labor by machines.'' Another characteristic of this second great industrial revolution is that it is opening up possibilities for the fusion of many science and technologies, such as the introduction of new energy and the fusion of machinery and biotechnology.

 

On the other hand, however, behind this state of development, the problem that ``social structural strength'' has not kept pace with ``technological efficiency'' remains a major issue . In fact, it can be said that the gap is widening. The major feature of the second great industrial revolution is deeply related to the methodology of what should be done to fill this gap and how to proceed with the replacement of brains by machines. It seems to be occurring.

 

The conflict between democracy and totalitarianism may become meaningless. Or perhaps the social sciences will experience even more shock than the natural sciences, and this situation could lead to the creation of a new form of democracy and social science.

Furthermore, in developed countries, human populations are aging. However, in this situation, just as the materials that made up "machines" changed from "wood to steel" during the first industrial revolution, the materials that made up "human resources" changed from "intelligence to artificial intelligence." It may be the cause of this. In a country like Japan, where the aging population is rapidly decreasing and the birthrate is declining, this will likely become the background for the widespread introduction of intellectual ability to replace humans, as well as physical ability connected to it. This is because there is a need for it, and when I say broadly, I mean that it can be a public demand for cities, municipalities, and the country as a whole. During the Industrial Revolution in England, machines were able to be introduced because, despite various frictions, necessity outweighed human labor.

 

In relation to the budget deficit, it will be necessary to use profits from overseas to build new industries in the country in the coming years. However, in reality, there may be many difficulties due to legal regulations and social customs. There is also the problem that it would be cheaper to experiment with these new experiments in developing countries rather than in Japan. The formation of new industries, social science, and democracy in the era of AI and big data are issues that must be urgently addressed.

 

* 4　Possibility of natural disasters (earthquakes, epidemic, global warming)

An unstable factor in Japan is earthquakes that can occur anywhere in the country. Moreover, these earthquakes have the potential to significantly destroy economic bases (Kanto, Nankai Trough). Furthermore, natural disasters (wind and flood damage)  pandemic caused by the current covid virusc and global warming are expected to increase. These natural disasters are caused by external factors, are highly shocking, and cannot be easily prevented by humans. Therefore, it is important to reduce the number of man-made disasters as much as possible on a daily basis . In terms of funding, it is a domestic "portfolio" issue, and at the same time it is also related to the nature of the second great industrial revolution. It is also related to the future prospects of cities and the issue of the aging population and declining birthrate. In rural areas, there is a concentration of population in areas such as prefectural capitals (concentration in urban areas), but it may be possible to more efficiently build and maintain medical and disaster prevention facilities by concentrating the population to some extent. However, there may be a problem with how to concentrate. Compact cities are being talked about, but when considering the impact on the environment and housing (and the impact on the automobile industry), it seems that the hub-and-spoke concept is more useful overall. What size of population is desirable for a city, what type of clustering is desirable, and other issues that are also related to how cities should behave in the new industrial revolution.

 

*5 Diplomatic /Military Conflict between the US and China

Perhaps the most significant external factor for Japan today is the conflict between the United States and China. For this reason, Japan may tend to focus on the United States and China. However, what will emerge from now on is not limited to the rise of China. This is because it appears to be a multipolar development of civilizations in the world. And there are many kinds of civilizations . So far, we have explained the types of civilizations and quasi-civilizations. By paying attention not only to Chinese civilization, but also to Indian civilization, Islamic civilization, and many other quasi-civilizations, and connecting them, the safety of Japan and Japanese quasi-civilizations can be maintained.  Under these circumstances, it may be necessary to reconfirm the state of Japan-US relations from the time Perry arrived on the voyage to the present. The question is whether this alliance is limited to an alliance between nations, or whether it is something more than that.

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Civilizations and value １9 ( contents of the challenge to Japan)

On the other hand, when it comes to external value, it may be possible to estimate the content of new value to some extent by understanding the content of the challenge . The external problems that Japan is currently facing can be roughly summarized as follows .

 

Contents of the challenge

1　aging and declining birthrate

2　fiscal deficit

3　new industrial revolution

4　Possibility of natural disasters (earthquakes, corona, global warming)

5　Diplomatic /Military Conflict between America and China

These five things should be considered in particular, and we will examine each of their external meanings.

 

1　aging and declining birthrate

A phenomenon in which the death rate declines and the birth rate declines, resulting in an increase in the number of elderly people, a decrease in the number of children, and a rise in the proportion of elderly people. The cause of the increase in the number of elderly people is the development of medical technology, the decrease in the number of children is due to the increase in the number of single people, and the tendency for women to marry later in life as they enter the workforce. There are many other reasons behind the decline in the birth rate, but the problem is not simply that the birth rate should increase. If the ``working-age population'' cannot be maintained at an appropriate level, there is also the problem that a heavy burden will be placed on the child-rearing generation, who will have to look after both the elderly and children. Population issues are affecting various social situations. The increase in the number of elderly people is also a factor in promoting population concentration in large cities in rural areas due to problems with hospitals in rural areas (for example, population concentration in Sapporo in Hokkaido).

 

2　fiscal deficit

The government has set a goal to maintain a healthy income and expenditure throughout each fiscal year (primary balance). However, on the other hand, it has eased monetary policy in order to maintain domestic economic growth and has made fiscal spending for various reasons (from the bursting of the bubble to the coronavirus pandemic). The government issued large amounts of government bonds, which were purchased by the Bank of Japan and Japanese banks. If the economic growth rate is higher than the debt increase rate, the fiscal deficit will be eliminated by the increase in tax revenue. However, the precondition for this is that the primary balance and the cost of debt refinancing be equal to the debt growth rate. Japan was in a deflationary situation and the rate of inflation was low, so even if it issues government bonds (which moves the nominal interest rate), the real interest rate has not increased*. Japan's government bonds have been issued in large quantities, and their prices have risen. The background to this being possible is the accumulation of current account surpluses that have continued for more than 20 years. However, on the other hand, these surpluses have been used to cover emergency expenses related to the postponement of the Olympics and the coronavirus pandemic. Japan's private companies (operating overseas) have profits from direct investment, and the country is not yet heavily dependent on foreign debt. Only with economic growth can tax revenues increase and public finances improve, but Japan's deflationary economy has continued to show no signs of improving. Some scholars refer to this deflationary situation as the "medievalization of the world economy," but the situation with overseas earnings means that even if there is no point in investing in Japan, there is meaning in investing overseas. right.

 

In contrast to economic growth, the aging population and declining birthrate mean an increase in medical and social welfare costs, and we are faced with the problem that compulsory expenses continue to increase at the same rate as the economic situation. Looking at it in this way, it appears that the problem of fiscal deficits is related to the problem of how to allocate a country's assets (portfolio). What is the current account balance obtained from overseas (as domestic population growth is not expected and the multiplier is low, we have no choice but to rely on overseas sources, but it is said that the balance of this current account balance is also on the verge of collapse)? The question is whether only that amount will be sent domestically, or how it will be utilized. This is where the new industrial revolution (Fourth Industrial Revolution) and the reorganization of global supply chains become relevant. This is because the meaning of investing ``domestically'' is gradually increasing.

 

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Civilizations and value １8 ( the gap between social force and technological efficiency )

Due to the influence of external forces, modern Japan has not been able to clarify its cultural ideas to the same extent as it was during the Edo period * 1 , and today's new academic studies are similar to what Western studies were during the Edo period. This is probably a situation that has not yet been clarified . Therefore, it may be fair to say that modern Japan has fought back in a state of cultural and academic uncertainty and ambiguity, even compared to the Edo period *2 . The tools for fighting back have not yet been determined, and this may be why Japan appears to be drifting adrift .

 

 *1 Modern Japan has not been able to clarify its cultural ideas to the same extent as in the Edo period .

During the Edo period, cultural ideas seem to have changed in relatively simple or indigenous forms, partly due to the effects of national isolation. In contrast, cultural ideas have changed in complex and ideological ways due to the influence of Europe in the period before World War II and the United States and the Soviet Union in the period after World War II . For this reason, cultural ideas were not as clear as they were in the Edo period, and even today we can say that we are drifting adrift without being able to navigate. This is one of the reasons why modern Japan has not become like it was during the Meiji Restoration. This may lead us to expect that modern Japan will undergo reforms in a form different from that of the Meiji Restoration.

 

*2 Modern Japan is fighting back in a state of cultural and academic uncertainty, even compared to the Edo period.

At the end of the Edo period, Western science was a new and distinct methodology both culturally and academically. In terms of culture, it will later recede, but while the usefulness of science and technology is relatively easy to clearly identify, the usefulness of culture and social sciences is not clearly obvious. Despite this , it seems that even in modern times there are many places that rely too much on Western methods.

 

Japan's drifting is likely to be deeply connected to the next question of ``what is the essence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution?'' Although there are new values brought about by AI and new energy, the most important significance of the upcoming Fourth Industrial Revolution lies in ``bridging the gap between social structural strength and technological efficiency.' ' This is because there is a possibility that new value will be created.

 

Bridging the gap between social structural strength and technological efficiency

Social structural power is the power to improve life through the development of social organization based on certain values, and technological efficiency is the power to improve life through the development of technology based on certain values. It refers to the power to move. And value has an expanse, or value space. The premise of technological efficiency is natural science, and the methodology for understanding natural phenomena has made steady progress . Information science, physics, biology, and other fields have made progress, and it seems that we are reaching a stage where they are crossing over. But what was the basis of this development of natural science? I think it was mechanics (physics). By expressing power in numbers and using it, it can be said that the ability to produce and move has greatly increased, or is still in the process of increasing. This was also called ``physics imperialism.'' Can it really be said that social structural power has kept pace with such rapid developments in technological efficiency? The fields covered by social structural power may include politics, public administration, and business organizations. One of the reasons why social structural power is inferior to technical efficiency power is that it is considered a field that is not suitable for mechanical expression, and it may be because it has not necessarily been constructed in that way. It seems to me.

 

Max Weber's concepts of modernization included capitalism for the economy and democracy and bureaucracy for politics and administration. However, in a sense, capitalism has been quantified, and to a large extent dynamicalized (interest rates, prices, and economic growth rates are also expressed in quantities, if these can be considered as a kind of force) . On the other hand, it has been difficult to quantify democracy and bureaucracy , so they have not made much progress. Furthermore, democracy and bureaucracy have often clashed, and still do (perhaps especially in terms of the degree of vertical division). Under these circumstances, we are now beginning to see the possibility that democracy and bureaucracy can be quantified and dynamicized from a technical perspective as well. This is because informatization and AI are making this possible.

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Civilizations and value １７ ( forces external and internal )

 3: Thoughts on the future of Japan's quasi-civilization

 

Spengler's concept of the life and destiny of a nation more familiar than Western history , I have tried to explain it using the Japanese mentality of the Edo period as an example . From now on, I would like to consider the future of Japan based on the civilization theory and value theory that I have been considering so far . We will look at Japan's quasi-civilization, external value theory, and introverted value theory, and through this we will think about the theme of ``civilization and values.''

 

My impression from the civilization theory is that the problem of civilization is ultimately a matter of the "arrangement" of various civilizations , and when it comes to the country of Japan , it can be explained using the five forces that I proposed. This can be said to be a problem of "external forces . " This is tied to the question which combine to minimize external pressure and bounce back .

　

Also, in terms of changes in the mentality of the social order considered in the theory of value , where is the mentality of the Japanese people today ? Also, what are the historical challenges facing Japan today ? What are the values that we Japanese people are trying to cultivate in the face of historical challenges , and how are we trying to respond to them ?

 

Value has been considered to be something that arises from external challenges and responses, or from internal life phenomena . For this reason, I would like to begin by enumerating many of the challenges (both external and internal) that Japan is currently facing .

 

Next, I will consider where the internal life phenomena of the Japanese people are now . However, since the psyche of modern Japanese people is influenced by various external forces, it may be difficult to explain it as clearly as it was during the Edo period. However, the mentality of Japan's current social order may correspond to the pattern of the fourth period (the mentality of the old ruling order is in old age, the mentality of the new ruling order is in youth) .

 

In my research on psyche in the Edo period, I briefly mentioned that the new ruling order originally had`` politicized ' ' cultural ideas and emerged with `` new era scholarship '' as its backbone .

 

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Civilizations and value １６ ( Tokyo era - social order in opened system )

the Meiji Restoration to the present can be called the Tokyo era*1, and it can be said that it was an era in which even greater external forces were exerted than the Black Ships. In all cases, the United States and the United Kingdom*2 were at the center of this. Conversely, it may have been China and Korea*3 that were subject to external forces from Japan. Regarding the Tokyo era, it may be necessary to consider the changes in mentality in the social order, but the influence of external forces (America, England, Korea, China, Russia) has made it extremely complex, making it difficult to see its true nature. 4, I will conclude my discussion of values and the introvert model here, having captured the characteristics of the Japanese psyche in a simple form using the closed model.

 

 

*1 Tokyo era

The Tokyo period refers to the era from the Meiji era to the present day. This era is still ongoing. In terms of social order, the Tokyo era may be divided into two. This is because the era is divided into the Meiji Constitution era and the Japanese Constitution era. Looking at social order, it would be problematic to mechanically divide it into four categories within the Meiji system and four categories during the era of the Japanese Constitution. This is because, in Japan's case, the social order was partially forced to change after its defeat in World War II . One thing that can be said consistently from the Meiji era to the Reiwa era is that bureaucrats have ruled. Before the war, the military bureaucracy was also powerful. The difference was that the economic bureaucracy was powerful after the war. In terms of social order, the social order centered on the economic bureaucracy began to grow from about half way through the social order centered on the military, and the social order based on the economic bureaucracy has now passed its maturity stage and is now heading toward decline. It may be the image of Japan. If so, a new social force should have emerged around the time when the economic bureaucracy was at its peak, and in the future it may well be called the ``information bureaucracy.'' The intelligence bureaucracy may not yet have established its organizational base.

 

 

*2 America, UK

The most influential external forces were probably the United States and the United Kingdom. With Perry's arrival, Japan was opened to the United States. However, after that, Japan came to rely on Britain's world strategy rather than America's. During the Meiji period, Japan borrowed the best from other Western countries, so it can be said that it was influenced by a plurality of external forces. After World War I, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance ended (continued for 20 years). After that, Japan pursued its own path for a while. After World War II, the United States rested on America's global strategy under the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty. And it continues to this day (continuing for 77 years). The difference between after World War II and after the Meiji Restoration is that after World War II, Japan was overwhelmingly under the influence of the United States. However, that may have happened after the security struggle. The era when Japan followed its own path could be said to be a time when Japan itself had a global strategy, but the values that Japan sought to define were not universal. For this reason, in a sense, the unique era may have been connected to the Edo period in the sense of Japanese people. The way Japan is perceived will change greatly depending on whether one views the Meiji Constitution era and the Japanese Constitution era as two eras of different social orders, or as one continuous social order. In modern times, it may be often seen as two different social orders. However, unconsciously it seems to be a continuous social order. My impression is that this order is reaching its old age, and that the Tokyo era is coming to an end.

 

※３China, North Korea

Modern Japan is trying to stand between the United States and China, but it can be said that it has been receiving external forces from China and Korea for a long time. However, Japan may have been applying external force to China and Korea for a longer period of time. This was due to the fact that Japan had long been superior to these two regions both militarily and economically, and continued to have influence. That has been changing since the 1990s. China, Taiwan, South Korea, and North Korea have each developed (although North Korea is limited to nuclear forces) and have gradually shifted to influence Japan. In contrast, Japan's social order, as mentioned earlier, is in the old age of the Tokyo era. Among these external forces, Japan is located between the United States and China. From the old age of the Tokyo era, how to build a new social order will become important as an internal value. In terms of external value, it will be important for Japan to link Taiwan and South Korea to its side in line with America's global strategy. I think that propaganda, culture, and religion will also be squeezed out in the same way.

 

* 4 There is a fear that the true nature of the matter may become invisible.

In order to examine the transformation of introverted values, we have looked at the Edo period as a closed model. In line with this, I have adopted a simple open model that regards the period after the Meiji era as the Tokyo era, and here I have adopted the idea of viewing the Meiji constitutional order and the Japanese constitutional order as one social order. On the other hand,  the world strategies of the United Kingdom and the United States have exerted influence on Japan as external forces, and in recent years, as the social order of the Tokyo era has entered the aging process, the external power of China and Korea has increased. I have seen Japan as being caught in the middle. I have briefly described the framework of the open model, but when considering the vitality of Japan's quasi-civilization, I believe that what is more essential is introverted value transformation. For this reason, I would like to put aside the issue of external forces for the time being and think about the future of Japan's quasi-civilization.

 

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Civilizations and value １５ ( an example as introvert-type value transformation )

Looking at the period in which thinkers were born, we can see that in the first period, Neo-Confucianism became official and the Sengoku samurai ethos was absorbed by Yomeigaku, which was seen in Toju Nakae, and the infancy of the new social order and the maturation of the old social order. It can be seen from Banzan Kumazawa that the periods overlapped . A phenomenon that indicates maturity is shown in the situation of accepting diverse values. However, Yomeigaku lost its power in the second period. The fact that Soko Yamaga  and others rejected both Neo-Confucianism and Yomeigaku, and left a great influence on future generations as the founders of ancient studies (Confucianism) and systemists of Bushido, can be said to be the ideological fruit of the values of the old social order .  Also, during this period, under exceptional circumstances, Keichyu was engaged in activities that would become the founder of Kokugaku.

 

In contrast, the second period saw the maturation of Neo-Confucianism and a reaction against it. The maturation of Neo-Confucianism can be seen in Ekiken Kaibara and Hakuseki Arai's pursuit of the knowledge of Kakubutu , but the mainstream phenomenon is maturation, and it was probably a humanistic reaction to the formalization of Neo-Confucianism. The classical studies of Jinsai Ito and Sorai Ogyu are characteristic of the second period , which can be called the period of youth. At the same time, there was a strong reaction from Neo-Confucianism, and that was Ansai Yamazaki. The controversy between government and academia pushed Ogyu Sorai to the side of social order, and Edo period thought reached its peak. Kokugaku, which began to grow for the same reasons as ancient studies, grew little by little, as seen in Mabuchi Kamono . As an exceptional situation, the ideas of Shoeki Ando  were born. It is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that the main thinkers were not the samurai of the ruling class, as evidenced by the economic growth during this period due to social stability .  Jinsai Ito, Ansai Yamazaki ,  Mabuchi Kamono, and Shoeki Ando  were not samurai warriors, and Baigan Ishida 's philosophy of mind can be said to have the aspect of reaching the masses .

 

The third period began with Sorai Ogyu. Although the interpretation of nature as an objective world was abandoned, economics was born regarding human society and was inherited by Shundai Dazai and Toshiaki Honda. A critical spirit that shows maturity appeared in Nakamoto Tominaga  and Banto Yamagata . The interpretation of nature, which was outside the scope of Sorai , began with Baien Miura , and the development of Dutch studies as the infancy of a new social order began with translation . The activities of Genpaku Sugita and Ryotaku Maeno can be cited , but during this period , Dutch studies remained of academic and economic interest. The third period was also the period when merchant ideas spread to the samurai class, and this phenomenon can be seen in Seiryo Kaiho's interpretation of human relationships .

Furthermore, while classical studies reached great maturity with Sorai Ogyu, Kokugaku reached its peak with Norinaga Motoori. This phenomenon is probably an exceptional phenomenon. Shoeki Ando in the second period and Baien Miura in this period were also exceptional phenomena, but because they were located in remote areas, there were no successors and the business was not passed on. In the fourth period, masters of practical studies and military tactics emerged from among those who had studied Dutch studies . At the same time, emotional leaders such as Atsutane Hirata and Shoin Yoshida emerged as political ideologues.

 

As a closed model, I have been thinking about the qualitative psychological changes in the social order during Japan's ``Edo period,'' particularly as an example of the `` four periods . ' ' We have looked at the Edo period as an example of Spengler's introvert-type value transformation , but behind these superficial movements, we can observe the values of the Japanese people in this era , their lives, or their destiny. It might be possible. With the addition of external forces such as the Black Ships , the Japanese fought back with the Meiji Restoration .

Civilizations and value 14 ( Fourth period in Edo era )

In the fourth period, the leaders of Dutch studies that arose in the third period changed from doctors and agriculturalists to military strategists.

 

Japanese studies have also become politicized. Examples include Atsutane Hirata*1 and Yukoku Fujita*2's  Mito studies. What is remarkable is the politicization of Confucianism, including Shozan Sakuma *3, Shonan Yokoi *4, and Shoin Yoshida *5. In terms of economics, there are Nobuhiro Sato, who envisioned an absolutist state, and Sontoku Ninomiya, an agricultural politician. The leaders of Dutch studies became those who accepted not only Western natural sciences but also social sciences , producing figures who would lead the Meiji period . Examples include Yukichi Fukuzawa*8, Amane Nishi*9, and Hiroyuki Kato*10. It can also be said that the politicization of Confucianism had an influence on the Imperial Rescript on Education and the Civil Code, and Kokugaku had an influence on the Constitution of Japan.

 

 *1　Atsutane Hirata turned Kokugaku into a religion with a theory that was different from that of his master who valued positivism. The Hirata school spread among wealthy local farmers and priests, and had a great influence on the Sonno-movement at the end of the Edo period.

 

*2　Yukoku Fujita was the founder of the late Mito studies. He devoted himself to compiling the History of Great Japan, but in response to the external crisis, he advocated the Sonno-joi theory.

 

*3 Shozan Sakuma  was an advocate of Eastern morality and Western artistic concepts.

 

*4 Shonan Yokoi had idea of equality of all human beings. He evaluated Western democracy from the perspective of Confucian royalism.

 

*5 Shoin Yoshida  trained many people who contributed to the Meiji Restoration at Shokason School .

 

*6 Nobuhiro Sato  anticipated the Meiji state by presenting a vision of a nation based on overseas invasion, state control of industry, and strong popular control.

 

*7 Sontoku Ninomiya was an agricultural politician and leader of rural reconstruction.

 

*8 Yukichi Fukuzawa was a Western scholar and enlightener during the Meiji period. He tried to understand capitalist civilization from the spirit that created it, rather than a Japanese-style, Western-style understanding. He advocated the need for practical studies to replace Confucianism.

 

*9　Amane Nishi  was a philosopher during the Meiji Enlightenment. Introduced Western philosophy to Japan.

 

*10　Hiroyuki Kato was a scholar of national law at the end of the Edo period and in the Meiji period. Studied military tactics and Western studies under Sakuma Shozan. In the Meiji period, he advocated the theory of innate human rights, but took a stand against the rise of the Freedom and People's Rights Movement. .

 

As an example, I have considered the Edo period in terms of four periods based on the theory of social order, and although the period in which a character appears is roughly speaking, it is considered to be the year half of the character's life *1. 

 

 *1 Measured in years that are half of the person's life.

The era to which a person belongs may be related to that person's accomplishments, and may have nothing to do with age. Some people's achievements appear in the second half of their lives, while others appear in the first half of their lives. However, what would happen if we consider that there is a social background to the appearance of that person in history? Setting the principle of capturing characteristics at half the age of a historical figure is more convenient for capturing the appearance of other figures. Spengler believed that politics, economics, society, and culture, especially art and mathematics, have mental images that characterize an era. In other words, this is probably the least arbitrary and natural way to grasp the background or deep common mental images of all genres.

Civilizations and value 13 ( Second and Third period in Edo era )

In the second period, ancient studies arose as a reaction to the teaching of Neo-Confucianism. It may be said that this was the birth of humanism in Japan . Examples include Jinsai Ito *1, Ekiken Kaibara *2, and Sorai Ogyu *3, but there were also reactions from the Neo-Confucian system, such as Anzai Yamazaki *4 and Hakuseki Arai . Furthermore, the influence of humanism was not limited to Confucianism, but also led to the development of Japanese studies, such as the activities of Mabuchi Kamono *5. Furthermore, the influence of Neo-Confucianism on the masses can be seen in the emergence of Baigan Ishida *6's shingaku. As a reaction to Neo-Confucianism , there were also ideas such as Shoeki Ando 's revolutionary democracy .

 

*1　 Jinsai Ito did not serve as a government official throughout his life, but instead lived as an ordinary Confucian. They dismissed the commentaries of Zhu Zi and others as going against the ancient meaning of Confucius Meng, and directly advocated seeking the path of saints in the original s Confucius and Mencius. He is the founder of the Kogi school.

 

*2　Kaibara Ekiken  was a member of the Neo-Confucian school of thought, but his writings range from medicine to natural history. In his later years, he criticized Neo-Confucianism and developed a theory of rational monism in response to rational theory. This can be said to be a case in which the concept of knowledge in Neo-Confucianism was directed outward.

 

*3　Sorai Ogyu was the founder of the classical school of dictionary studies. He aimed to establish a new Confucian system through an accurate understanding of the Six Classics . He was the greatest thinker of the Old School, preached the separation of public and private life, and paved the way for economics.

 

*4 Anzai Yamazaki  created Suika Shinto, which was a combination of Yoshida Shinto and Neo-Confucianism.

 

*5  Hakuseki Arai was a Neo-Confucian scholar, but this is a case where the concept of knowledge in Neo-Confucianism turned to historical research. His book, Western Journal, was the beginning of the rise of Western studies.

 

*6 Mabuchi Kamono tried to revive the ancient path through research on the Manyoshu. He laid the foundation for Japanese studies.

 

*7 Baigan Ishida  adopted Shinto, Buddhism, and RoushiSoushi based on Neo-Confucianism, and advocated the establishment of commercial morality, preaching that merchants were no inferior to samurai in fulfilling their social duties.

 

*8 Shoeki Ando (physician) came from an upper-class peasant family, but he was a revolutionary thinker who completely rejected class-based society and Confucian-Buddhist ideology and advocated an ideal society in which all people worked and lived on their own.

 

　The third period saw the development of classicism, scientific thought, the separation of public and private life, and the development of economics that had occurred in the second period. However, classicism in Confucianism became less common , and Kokugaku reached its maturity under Norinaga Motoori  *1. Regarding scientific thought, Baien Miura  *2 and the appearance of many Dutch scholars are also a feature of the third period, including Genpaku Sugita  *3, Gennai Hiraga  *4, Ryotaku Maeno  *5 and Kokan Shiba *6. During this period, Dutch studies were in their infancy and began to spread as an academic discipline.*6 This period also saw the development of economics due to the influence of Sorai Ogyu 's separation of public and private life . Shundai Dazai *7, Seiryo Kaiho *8, and Toshiaki Honda *9 are some examples. Comparative cultural anthropological thinkers with a sharp critical spirit included Chuki Tominaga *10 and Banto Yamagata *11.

 

*1　Norinaga Motoori  investigated the true meaning of Japanese classics using linguistic and philological methods, harshly criticized the worldview of Confucianism and Buddhism, and affirmed humanity by emphasizing the compassion of things. Although it reflected a new civic consciousness, its idea of the divine kingdom and the idea of reverence for the king would be inherited by Restored Shintoism.

 

*2 In addition to Confucianism,Baien Miura  studied astronomy and Western studies, and advocated the study of reason as a kind of natural philosophy, and anti-viewing unity. It was a pioneering methodological awareness of empirical science.

 

*3 Genpaku Sugita was a medical scientist and Dutch scholar who translated Kaitai Shinsho and laid the foundations of Dutch studies.

 

*4 Gennai Hiraga was an inventor, naturalist, playwright, and joruri writer. Despite his versatility, he was not accepted by the world.

 

*5 Ryotaku Maeno was a medical scientist and Dutch scholar who was at the center of the KaitaiShinsho translation business.

 

*6 Kokan Shiba  was a Western-style painter and a Dutch scholar.

 

*7 Shundai Dazai  inherited the secular aspect of Sorai Ogyu .

 

*8 Seiryo Kaiho  was a  scholar on China and economic thinker. He looked at samurai's human relationships in terms of economic relationships.

 

*9 Toshiaki Honda  learned geography with Dutch books. He preached the necessity of trade and the importance of commerce.

 

*10 Chuki Nakamoto  was familiar with the scriptures of Shinto,Confucianism and Buddhism, and criticized the deterioration of religion and ethics. Known as a comparative cultural anthropological thinker.

 

*11 Banto Yamagata was successful as a merchant. He was a relentless critic of Buddhist beliefs and Shinto mythology. 

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Civilizations and value 12 ( First period of Edo era )

In Toynbee's view, a small number of creative rulers gain legitimacy , but lose it over time . The decline of civilization is portrayed as such a process , but the idea of the four periods mentioned above also suggests a way to analyze it by dividing it into smaller parts . In that case, the creative rulers are the leadership of the new social forces, and the legitimate rulers who have lost their creativity are the leadership of the old social forces. It may be possible to read it that way. In other words, it can be said that Spengler and Toynbee overlap in terms of internal value formation as well.

 

It is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that the total period of these four periods does not necessarily correspond to the period of existence of the actual social order as a social force . This is because a part of the first half of the social forces and a part of the latter half were periods in which they were not actually ruling orders or ruling forces, but could be regarded as periods in which they were potential forces .

 

 

Forces and mentality in the Edo period

 

above idea of social order or social forces as a hypothetical model, I would like to take a look at Japan's Edo period, which became a typical example of a closed model due to its national isolation policy. In terms of history, the Edo period was a social order established from the establishment of the Edo Shogunate to the restoration of imperial rule , and its period of existence was from 1603 to 1867 . However, in this hypothetical model, the first of the four periods already began before 1603 , and the fourth period ended after 1867.

 

Let me explain the major flow. The first period began before the establishment of the Edo Shogunate. This is probably because the values of the Sengoku samurai, the Ikko sect, the Nichiren sect, and Christianity had a strong influence, and the posthumous value was high . At the same time, we saw the beginning of the wide spread of Neo-Confucianism by Seika Fujiwara *1. This continued with Razan Hayashi *2 's teaching of Neo-confucianism. Examples of the products of friction between old social forces and new social forces include Touju Nakae*3, Banzan Kumazawa*4, and Soko Yamaga*5. Keichu*6 is cited as the origin of Kokugaku.

 

*1 The academic style of Seika Fujiwara  was not simply Neo-Confucianism, but rather an inclusive academic style that did not exclude Rikuo's studies, but also incorporated Laozhuang and Buddhism, and was rather said to have been on the flow of Ming xinxing. .

 

*2 Razan Hayashi  made Neo-Confucianism the official science of the shogunate, and his descendants called themselves the Hayashi family and became Confucian officials of the shogunate for generations.

 

*3 Touju Nakae is a Yomei scholar  who valued filial piety and cultivated virtue , Farmers called him the Omi Saint.

 

 * 4 Banzan Kumazawa  adopted the strengths of both Shushi and Yomei studies, and argued that politics should be viewed from a practical samurai standpoint, and that policies should be formulated according to the actual situation by understanding the three aspects of time, place, and rank.

 

*5 Soko Yamaga was one of the founders of the classical school of thought, which opposed Neo-Confucianism and Yomei school and advocated a return to the principles of Confucius, and he also influenced later generations as a systematist of Bushido.

 

*6 Keichū was a monk of the Shingon sect and laid the foundations for Japanese studies. He had many accomplishments in classical commentary and Japanese linguistics.

 

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Civilizations and value 11 ( structure about the DNA of social order )

Let's take a brief look at each period. Let's first formulate a general hypothesis about what characteristics each has.

 

 What is the first period, childhood? 

The first period, childhood, overlaps with the prime years of the preceding social forces . In contrast to the mature wisdom of the preceding social forces , this is the time when the new , albeit infantile, ideals of the newly born social forces are giving birth . Therefore, in childhood, the mature culture of the preceding social forces and the young, yet youthful culture of the next social forces coexist. The quality of social psychology , or value, is formed through this interaction .

 

What is the second period, adolescence ?

The second period, adolescence, overlaps with the old age of the preceding social forces . The youthful ideals of the new social forces grow little by little as they meet reality . In contrast , the mature wisdom of the preceding social forces becomes rigid with age, declines , and at the same time becomes religious and philosophical. The new social forces are lyrical, and since they are not actually in charge of society yet, this is a time of great energy , where they become fanciful and dream of a new era .

 

What is the third period, the prime age?

The third period, the prime of life, overlaps with the childhood of the next generation of social forces . This time, the positions have changed, and the social forces that have gained power and leadership become the ones who criticize and suppress them. The next generation of social forces will be born under this protection , and will begin to grow little by little while receiving the protection of a mature economy amidst the stability of established social forces .

 

What is the fourth period, old age?

In the fourth period, old age, people become the ones who are overcome by the social forces of the next generation in adolescence. Philosophy and religion become accepted by established social forces . This phenomenon occurs because the social forces that have been dominant up until now tend to seek spiritual elements due to material saturation, and because of friction with the next-generation social forces that occur one after another . This is probably because they are trying to assert the legitimacy of their rule . On the other hand, the next generation of social forces in adolescence have continued to grow since their birth and are in the process of coming together as a group . At the same time, this is a time when the next generation of social forces will gain the legitimacy of their rule while being trained by the ideas * that established social forces have created amidst contradictions, as well as by external forces, such as ideas from abroad. .

 

 * Thoughts created amidst contradictions

Although the idea is to innovate and reform, a situation where the outer shell of the argument has a retro-like appearance is referred to here as ``thoughts created in contradiction.'' One example of this is the reform ideology that took the form of sonno-joi at the end of the Edo period.

 

What can be considered through these four periods is that multiple social forces exist in one period, each with its own life cycle. The infancy of one social force exists in parallel with the prime of life of another social force . Also, old age exists in parallel with adolescence, childhood in middle age, and adolescence in old age . Furthermore , it is believed that the psyches of the two social forces , old and new, that are occurring at the same time , influence each other and form trends and culture . These combinations may change slightly depending on the situation and time differences . This is because the length of each of the four periods can change depending on the situation. It feels somewhat similar to the double helix structure of DNA. It is, so to speak, the DNA of social order.

 

However , first of all , ① childhood (new social forces) - middle age (old social forces), ② adolescence (new social forces) - old age (old social forces), ③ middle age (old social forces) - childhood (new social forces) , ④ Old age (old social forces) - Youth (new social forces)

　　This pattern can be considered as the basic type. Based on these hypotheses and keeping them in mind , we can use them as a starting point for looking at complex and diverse phenomena . In the sense of the error from the starting point, it would be possible to use it in a way similar to Weber's ideal type.

 

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Civilizations and value 10 ( The rise and fall of social order in four eras )

However, in many cases, values are formed not only in an introverted sense, but also in an extroverted sense, and I think much of this can be explained by the mechanism of challenge and response. These two viewpoints are necessary as a minimum as a large frame. Rather than thinking about how these will be combined as a theory, the purpose of the first basic stage is to first see what can be seen by taking each perspective and to concretely accept what is seen. That is to say.

　

Changes in the life phenomena of civilizations in closed civilizations

 

From here, we begin to observe the introverted life phenomena of civilization in the style of Spengler . In doing so , it is first necessary to look for historical examples as appropriate materials . One such example is the ` ` change in mentality during the Edo period under national isolation . ''

 

The history of Japan from the beginning of national isolation (1636) to the arrival of the black ships (1864) can be said to be very close to the ideal of a closed civilization . For this reason , I would like to use this model to observe the process of change in biological phenomena, as it is a suitable material for examining the introvert model .

 

 However, as a first step , it is necessary to present a simplified model of changes in social order and mentality , and to explain the concept behind it .

 

Let me now write about Spengler's four periods of rise and fall of social organisms. Spengler divided the rise and fall of social order into four eras*1 : childhood, youth , middle age , and old age . This classification method was criticized by Toynbee and others for viewing civilization as an organism .*2 However, on the other hand, Toynbee held the idea that child civilizations are germinated from parent civilizations *3. If so, is it possible that these four periods could arise depending on the degree of overlap between the parent civilization and the child civilization? These four periods can also exist as basic models, and the theme from here is to take a closer look at their characteristics.

 

 

*1 The rise and fall of social order in four eras

Regarding the idea of four eras of rise and fall of social order, some researchers of Spengler have criticized that Spengler is only understood formally. ``Only what is extremely external can be understood.'' This opinion is probably influenced by Toynbee and others' claims that society is not an organism. There are various types of civilizations, and some are influenced by multiple outside civilizations, but even among these, it can be said that the simplest form of civilization has followed a relatively organic form. 

 

*2 Toynbee looked critically at this method of classification.

Society is not a living organism in any sense. He says that society is nothing more than a common basis for the actions of individual human beings who are living organisms. He held that it cannot be demonstrated that the social order passes through successive periods of life in the same way as humans do. However, Toynbee also says that civilization has a parent-child relationship in a different sense than society . If there is a parent-child relationship, it is possible that the timing can be divided depending on the relationship. It would be even more meaningful to look at each period in detail.

 

*3 Toynbee's idea of the embryo of civilization

 A distinctive feature of Toynbee's theory of civilization was that each civilization did not complete its life phenomenon independently, but that it conceived child civilizations along the way. They are the parent civilization and the child civilization. He also believed that there was an encounter between different civilizations before the birth of civilization. If there is an embryo, this will likely be the cause of overlapping generations between civilizations. Civilization and social order are not necessarily the same thing. Civilization can be said to be a series of several social orders linked together over time. But there may be cases where they match. This may be the case with Japan during the period of national isolation. In such cases, it is expected that there will be roughly four eras in the rise and fall of the social order. I believe that such a phenomenon can occur in the relationship between the old social order (played by preceding social forces) and the new social order (played by new social forces).

 

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Civilizations and value 9 ( introvert model and extrovert model )

There are reasons to think that Toynbee and Spengler need to be reevaluated. It is important that these two were born out of the great destruction of World War I and World War II . The world is about to enter similar waters of destruction once again, but it seems that little is understood about what these two men were feeling during this tense situation. At the time, there may have been a strong tendency to be seen as a downfallist . However, in modern times, it may be better to reinterpret these two as futurists . How are the values that define and determine the future formed? Two styles were offered. Toynbee 's theory of extroversion and Spengler's theory of introversion each followed different developments* . Another aspect that cannot be ignored is that these two intuitions were achieved through honed sensibilities * during the extreme tensions of wartime .

 

 *Different development

For Toynbee , it would be fair to say that external influences on civilization were a more important factor in the formation of values . There is a challenge ( I divide it into external forces and environmental forces ) as a force that activates civilization , and this influences the ability to self-determine and fight back . A creative leader emerges and the masses begin to imitate him, but over time the creative leader gradually deteriorates and becomes dominant, and in this process, empires and fighting groups emerge. In contrast, Spengler argued that the culture that naturally arose from rural areas would become civilization as cities developed, and that humans would lose their culture, become rootless, become empires, and eventually collapse.

In his later years, Toynbee began to mention the importance of world religions. On the other hand, in his later years, Spengler began to think about what the German state and society should be like . As a result, he began to think about Prussian socialism . In a sense, this can be said to be a product of introverted thinking . It's socialism that takes advantage of Germany 's efficient bureaucracy, and it may be reminiscent of current China in the 2020s . Spengler believed that socialism and scientific bureaucracy, rather than markets or capitalism, would develop nations.

 

*Sensitivity honed under stress

In wartime, it was difficult to know whether to win or lose, and whose values would prevail, making it difficult to know the way out. For this reason, many historical and cultural works seem to have been supported by deep thought. Around the time of World War II, Braudel was writing ``Mediterranean'' and Sartre was writing ``Being and Nothingness.'' It is also interesting that all of them were French people who were occupied by Germany. This can also be said of Japanese writers before and after the GHQ rule.

 

 

2 Life and destiny that integrate challenge and response

 

I have looked at Toynbee, an extrovert, and Spengler, an introvert, with reference to Jung's classification based on psychological posture . It may be necessary to combine these ideas , but even if you try to combine these two abstractly , it doesn't seem to make much sense , and it probably won't be very convincing . However, even if we lean toward one or the other, it is insufficient*, so we would like to use both viewpoints as a minimum . Try using these as tools to actually explain the situation.

 

In addition, the examples of culture, art, science, mathematics, and history that Spengler cited in his discussion of the decline of the West seem to be extremely difficult for non-Westerners to evaluate in order to explain the theory of internal formation of values.  For this reason, I would like to consider Japan's own culture, rather than Spengler's example, as the material for internal formation theory. With this in mind to some extent, I would like to think about Japan's future as a theme .

 

 ※insufficient

If we concentrate too much on introverted values, we will become too fixated on the phenomena of life and see value only in terms of fate. However, it seems necessary as a methodology to consider a model that is not influenced by external factors. By consciously choosing a closed model, you can think purely about the introvert model. This can be said to be the significance of observing life phenomena in a closed civilization.

 

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Civilizations and value 8 ( Toynbee and Spengler 's theory of civilization )

Weber's sensibilities include an ``ideal type'' way of thinking, a way of focusing on modernization theory, and a somewhat calculus-like perspective. The convenient genre divisions and classifications of economy, politics, administration, society, and culture are the same as in my theory of civilization, but they are nothing more than a methodology for analysis and synthesis. However, if we look at this categorization of economics, politics, administration, society, and culture from a different perspective, we can also think of it as a convenient classification of ``value space'' into categories. This can also be said to be related to the methodology for analysis and synthesis.

 

However, this so-called Toynbee-like theory of value formation may have a somewhat heteronomous feel to it . In addition to this , there may also be autonomous value formation theories that the civilization itself has. It refers to values that are formed in relation to the state of energy possessed by that ethnic group . These values also change over time. Also, among the things that make up these values are religion , art, and science , and Spengler was the person who intuitively understood that at the root of these are "common biological phenomena*." .

 

 *Common Life Phenomena

What has become clear is that a political problem cannot be understood from politics itself, and that the essential features operating deep within are often only found in the field of art... and even more so, This is what concretely manifests in the form of distant scientific thought and pure philosophical thought.

 

It can be said that Spengler wrote a number of things in ``The Decline of the West'' that were strange from the point of view of each expert .*1 However, in modern terms , AI　It can be said that he was discussing the ` `common life phenomena'' that exist in all things, such as religion, art, and science, in a way that turned the so- called deep learning method  on its head. He called it morphology , and said it was the last science of European civilization .

 

*1 From the perspective of an expert, he wrote a number of strange things in ``The Decline of the West.''

Spengler's evaluations of culture, art, mathematics, and history do not necessarily evaluate each field from an expert standpoint, so it seems that his evaluations are strongly biased. This element of bias can be said to be the essence of morphological interpretation. However, checking each and every one of them may be quite difficult for non-Westerners. This is why it is not expected to be efficient to use the example presented by Spengler when explaining autonomous value formation.

 

We looked at Toynbee 's theory ( challenge and response), which can be an external factor for values, and Spengler 's theory (common lifephenomena), which can be an internal factor .

 

There will probably be many opinions as to why Toynbee and Spengler 's theory of civilization is being used now . In fact, in recent years, it has been Huntington's work ``The Clash of Civilizations'' that has continued to have a major influence on civilization theory . Although the clash of civilizations has successfully explained * the situation in the real world , it seems that it has also become a fuel for values and ideas in itself.

 

*Explain real world situations well.

The population growth of Islamic civilization and the economic development of Chinese civilization in Asia gradually brought about tension with Western civilization. In contrast, Huntington believed that close cooperation between Europe and the United States would be essential to sustaining the hegemony of Western civilization. He also predicted that by 2021, the population growth in Islamic civilization would have slowed down. On the other hand, tensions caused by Chinese civilization are still rising.

 

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Civilizations and value 7 ( concept of values )

Chapter 2    Value 

 

１　what is value

 

In my previous two papers, ``Study on Civilization'' and ``Study on Quasi-Civilization,'' I have been thinking about the theme of civilization.

 

It focused on the `` life '' of civilization and quasi-civilization. I first tried to classify them based on their characteristics , and then looked at their life phenomena . However, simply looking at life phenomena in the past does not cover the conditions that constrain the present era . Classification and elucidation of life phenomena are extracted from past historical records. It is probably difficult to discover "value" in the present with just this , and it is also difficult to foresee the future .

 

The greatest benefit to be gained from knowing past records and history is to discover `` stable relationships among civilizations '' through classification and elucidation of life phenomena . However, it is difficult to discover where this civilization will head in the future just by discussing the various civilizations that have existed to date . What is attracting attention here is the concept of ``value,'' which can serve as an element and force that will define the future .

 

2　Value and time

 

In "Study of Civilization "“ Value is a function of time *”was defined as . This definition is too concise and can be confusing . This is mentioned in the section ``Civilization and Time'' in ``Study on Civilization .'' that explanation of what forms value was inspired by Toynbee's theory .

 

Values change , and first of all, ``challenges'' are presented depending on the conditions of each era . Some kind of value is formed because of this . In order to realize this value, a ``fight back'' will be held . In other words, value is a force that is given life and shaped by the challenges of the times. Each of these values influences ``technological efficiency'' and ``social structural strength . ''

In addition, in response to these forces , forces that repel are generated, and as they are synthesized, they form ``reaction forces'' and ``maintenance forces,'' and achieve self -actualization .

 

 *Value is a function of time

Let's define "value" as something that constitutes the reason for its existence, both soft and hard. This definition has nothing to do with the reason for human existence. First of all, it is better to think only about the software and hardware that surrounds human society. It is clear that the meaning of the existence of these software and hardware often changes over time, but on the other hand, it is also possible to consider situations in which they remain unchanged and maintain their original form, although they are washed away by the waves of change. . The proposition that value is a function of time may be thought of as another form of expression of the ``modernization theory.'' Modernization theory is the establishment of capitalism in the economy in Europe. Establishment of a democratic government in politics. Establishment of bureaucracy in public administration . The transition from Gemeinschaft to Geselfschaft in society. It is a shift towards rationalism in culture . This is typified by the ideas of Max Weber.

 

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Civilizations and value ６ ( about the idea of civilization group )

　I have briefly touched on the life phenomena of quasi-civilizations other than the four civilizations in ``Research on quasi-civilizations'' . When we look at these classifications of civilizations and individual life phenomena, we can also look at the individuality of each civilization, but that is not all. This is because I also want to think about these " collections of civilizations ." For example, this will lead to the view that things formed by the coming together of various civilizations can be considered a single form of life, like clusters of galaxies in astronomy . This is the idea of the so-called civilization group (a complex of civilizations formed by the gathering and combining of multiple civilizations and quasi-civilizations). Whether humanity can govern itself peacefully and eliminate the causes of war seems to be deeply related to this way of thinking .

  

What is the ideal state between the four civilizations?

 

It can be said that the most important purpose of classifying civilizations and elucidating the life phenomena of various civilizations is to arrange them under the condition of peace . I briefly explained an example of a diagram of this arrangement in ``Research on Quasi-Civilizations'' , but it seems unlikely that the four civilizations with moral systems will continue to clash repeatedly in their struggle for supremacy . I also thought that whether or not it is a democratic system may have an impact.

 

Therefore, in order to avoid such a situation, it is necessary for many quasi-civilizations other than "civilization" to strengthen their economic ties , and it is also necessary to have a great balance between these four civilizations and their separation and conflicts. 

　

As an example of such an arrangement , TPP (Trans-Pacific Agreement)* was mentioned in the ``Study on Quasi-Civilizations .'' The classification of civilizations and the study of their biological phenomena will serve as a kind of framework when considering how to proceed with such a sequence map . Each of these quasi-civilizations is a piece of the puzzle.

 

 * TPP　

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is an economic partnership agreement signed between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. In terms of quasi-civilization classification, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand are colonial-type quasi-civilizations, as well as Chile, Mexico, and Peru are colonial-type quasi-civilizations, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam are fusion-type quasi-civilizations, and Japan is frontier-type quasi-civilizations. This means that if Britain is added to this list, the number of frontier quasi-civilizations will increase.

 

In his ``Study on Quasi-Civilizations,'' I observed that the trend of multiculturalism was gradually moving northward from the southern hemisphere . The TPP is an agreement that encompasses Oceania, North America, South America, Southeast Asia, and the Far East , but in the future it is desirable that other quasi-civilizations such as Africa, the Far West, Eastern Europe, and Russia ( Eurasia ) be included and joined. Maybe. This encircles four civilizations that are divided , clashing, and only respecting their own moral systems and flaunting their influence . Then, such behavior will be regulated. How about thinking about the emergence of a ` `complex civilized organism,'' so to speak ? This means TPP plus other quasi-civilized alliances.

 

Regarding civilization, I came to something like a conclusion. Civilizations assert themselves and clash. For this reason, other quasi-civilizations cooperate to protect their own values, creating a form of encirclement around civilization. The idea is that by doing so, the actions of various civilizations will be restrained and peace will be maintained.

Let's stop thinking about civilization for a moment and start thinking about the other theme of this paper: value.

 

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