Civilizations and value 26 ( political and social governance to be determined automatically )

On the other hand, in the private sector, C (creative work), M (managerial work), anprofessionals are involved in these. If anything, it may be that more people are involved H (welfare work, etc.) remain, but it is said that only a small number of  H (welfare work) in the private sector. Some C, M, and H will remain in the public sector , but I think many people will have their own jobs while sharing public duties as citizens.

 

In countries like China , the Communist Party will likely advocate public ownership of productive power . However, in a democratic country, from a process standpoint, democratization must precede the public ownership of productive power . However, even in China, although it is a developing dictatorship, it is a society that has already achieved a certain degree of development and has reached the forefront of the international economy, so it is becoming increasingly difficult to argue that the country is owned not by its people but by a single party. I wonder if this will come to be seen as nothing more than sophistry. This may also lead to the proposition that it is the people or the party that can develop a nation. The question of whether such a model can be shared among civilizations will also arise .

 

New democracy and new scholarship are a ` `fight back'' and an answer to fill the gap* that has arisen due to the inability of social structure to keep up with technological efficiency. Asking why social science has fallen so far behind* will lead us to search for the value of a new era . It is also the content of the response to the challenges of the times , and will enrich the content .

 

*Social science has fallen behind.

The lagging behind in the social sciences seems to be symbolized by the fact that countries eventually find themselves in a state of conflict, which leads to conflicts and wars to repeat themselves. In democratic countries, this may be seen in populism's inability to truly solve the country's problems and its inability to quickly resolve problems with vested interests. Even in autocratic countries, it may appear as time passes when it becomes impossible to maintain strong control. What will appear over time in democratic and authoritarian states is a decline in their overall power. A situation began to emerge in which military power was emphasized in order to prevent deterioration, and eventually a state of war developed.

 

do not understand how comprehensive power was created or what the various forces that support comprehensive power are. They are simply asserting their opinions and acting as part of it. The reason why the claims of such parts cannot be sorted out and adjusted is because there are ``authorities'' in each area who are the subjects of the power of the parts. The overall deterioration of power can be attributed to the fact that the relationship between these (partial) people in power and the masses has become difficult. In particular, the latter relationship between those in power and the masses emerges as a difference in the ``filter'' between democratic and coercive systems.

 

However, what both have in common is that it is better for political and social governance to be determined automatically according to the situation rather than being determined arbitrarily. Isn't it better than letting the situation go unaddressed and eventually becoming unable to adjust and leading to war? This way of thinking may become an important aspect of the idea of a ``new social science.''

 

The essence of the problem lies in the evolution of social structural forces , and in bringing them closer to the speed of development of technological efficiency forces .  How will AI, big data, ICT , robots , autonomous driving using electricity or hydrogen , new energy, etc. be connected with social stcturural power? Can it become a smart city or smart state? Driving a car is not the only thing that will be automated. I think it means that politics, the economy, and society itself will become partially automated. These will ultimately prove the richness of the content of the new industrial revolution .

 

*Smart State

 In a narrow sense, a smart city can be described as city management based on data that combines ICT, AI, and big data. Just as such cities were born, city-states were established, and eventually nations were established, will a smart state be established in the form of European civilization? Or will a smart state be established by the nation from above, like in China? The forms of its development will vary. Copenhagen, Amsterdam, and Stockholm are highly rated as smart cities, and Estonia is a smart state. It is interesting because it feels similar to the geographical scope of the former Hanseatic League. The atmosphere of a smart state's society will differ greatly depending on whether it is a city federation or a state that forcibly adopts new technologies from above.

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Civilizations and value 25 ( The new image of ancient Greece )

A new industrial revolution has the potential to significantly change this instability , and if it succeeds, we will move even closer to an economy that does not require labor * 1. If anything, this may lead to a new reexamination of the content of public service . It is conceivable that we will enter an era* 2 in which work that is currently considered public service will be shared . Basic income and work sharing for public and semi-public services. I wonder if its appearance will become roughly similar to that of ancient Greece.

 

 *1 Economy that does not require labor

As AI progresses from special general purpose to general general purpose, There is an opinion that the private sector has C (  creative ) , M (management) , and H (hospitality)and other human resources will be unnecessary. In this case, the only elements input into industry are capital and technological elements. In this case, the extreme hypothesis that humans will receive only profits from the factors of production and spend their leisure time will arise. However, rather than reaching that point, it is likely that some form of work sharing will gradually emerge. This is because work is also one of human needs. One type of industry would be public service or public work.

 

*2 An era where public affairs are work-sharing

In an age of aging and declining birthrate, many parts of public affairs are institutionally designed by a quasi-market supported by medical insurance and long-term care insurance. However, many of these, including welfare, may have to be supported by public spending for a while. However, apart from such insurance and welfare, there are many public services that are familiar to people's daily lives. Even today, such public duties are still carried out by a relatively small number of people . (For example, a city with a population of 150,000 people may have one or two people in charge of disaster prevention.) However, there is still a need for volunteers in many areas. On the other hand, volunteer service activities can be tedious and restrictive, so I think that public service or public work, including volunteer work, will become a work-sharing occupation. Taking a look at Scandinavia and other countries, it will be necessary to redefine public service and work-sharing as a part of business, in order to create a society in which people can survive on basic income and work-sharing.

 

Natural disasters, that is, natural disasters, are currently impossible to control, and the only question is whether we can minimize disasters caused by human factors . As for diplomacy, as we discussed in the civilization theory, in order to preserve our unique civilization as quasi-civilizations, it will be necessary for quasi-civilizations that are not major powers to cooperate with each other. It may be desirable to form a kind of federation .

　

Under the conditions of a new democratic culture and new scholarship that are gradually becoming clearer ,  the Equalization of human capital* 1 is progressing . At the same time, the generational balance will also move toward artificial equalization *2 . In the long run, the required workforce in private industry may gradually decline . For this reason, it seems that work sharing in public affairs is deeply related to the way people give meaning to their existence. Perhaps we are waiting for a ``mysterious outcome'' in which a new democracy determines the nature of the public ownership of productive power *3 .

 

*1 the Equalizationof human capital

A new democratic culture collects public opinion directly and unconsciously, so it does not make radical claims compared to elections that collect public opinion indirectly and consciously, and it does not necessarily lead to public opinion favoring the elderly (superficially). (Assuming that they aim for harmony in the long term rather than asserting their own interests), the result is that human capital consisting of men and women of all ages will become equalized. In addition, new scholarship will have to provide knowledge that can serve as the foundation for such a new democratic culture.

 

*2 Generational balance is also artificially equalized.

It is not enough to simply gather up direct and unconscious public opinion; by summarizing them, a comprehensively desirable picture can be discovered. This will ultimately lead to a balance across generations.

 

*3 New democracy determines the nature of public ownership of productive power

If a new democracy directly or unconsciously gathers public opinion, what kind of work style will people ultimately prefer? Perhaps they want to be guaranteed employment in a public institution, and on top of that, they want a moderate amount of work. Until now, ``labor'' has been necessary to produce the consumer goods and public goods that humans need. If machines are to replace many of the brains and physical labor, then we will need to create self-governing organizations so that we are not controlled by the machines or those who operate them.

Such a society, so to speak, would be like the former slaves being replaced by machines, and it might become something like the polis of ancient Greece.

The image of ancient Greece is not limited to that. This may lead to the revival of metaphysics in its relationship with synthesis. With the advent of AI, metaphysics, a discipline that imagines synthesis and wholeness, even if it is not backed by rationality or experimentation, may be reconsidered. This is because AI can connect concepts that are completely unpredictable, and in order for humans to catch up, humans themselves must improve their ability to connect concepts more intuitively.

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Civilizations and value 2４ (constitutional revision , labor force)

If a new democracy and new academic science emerge in this way, the current debate over constitutional revision alone may become meaningless *1 . It will be necessary to keep a close eye on developments in other countries *2 in this area .

 

 *1 The current debate on constitutional revision will become meaningless.

Until now, discussions on constitutional revision have been aimed at increasing Japan's independence , but the relationship between the governing body and the people has changed from an indirect, conscious democracy to a direct, unconscious democracy. This is likely to become a central issue in constitutional revision. The idea of pacifism will probably be affected depending on which of these ideals of democracy one takes. The question of whether to adopt the idea of peace or to defend the large amount of overseas assets that have already been accumulated (which is closely related to the domestic financial situation), issues that are common even before the war, are also reflected in the filter of democracy. The answer will vary depending on the type .

 

*2 Movements in other countries

China is consciously trying to establish this kind of direct and unconscious approach under a powerful regime. However, since China is proceeding on the assumption that it will be ruled by the Communist Party, even if this new democracy becomes technically possible, there is naturally a risk that it will be used as a tool for authoritarian control. For these reasons, in the sense of decentralization, it is possible to consider the establishment of a new academic center that will compete with AI. The question is whether value lies in a single party that is biased, or whether value lies in the center of learning, but even if it is called the center of learning, under the current situation, imperfections remain. Alternatively, it may be expected that the current indirect democratic system will remain in some parts. The three powers are divided, and the separation of powers becomes four and five powers.

 

The aging population and declining birthrate will inevitably appear as a state of transition in the Japanese economy, as all men and women of all ages enter the labor force *1. If the supply capacity resulting from the labor force cannot keep up with the increase in medical expenses, the fiscal deficit will continue to increase due to the increase in welfare and medical expenses . Although the former can be covered by ``work style reform'' and the latter by a quasi-market system* 2 , ``public burdens'' will inevitably increase. Public burdens also redistribute income and can increase domestic demand and maintain economic growth, but public burdens that flow toward medical expenses may not lead to increased domestic demand.

 

*1 Employing all men and women of all ages into the labor force

The declining birthrate and aging population will reduce the labor force participation rate for some time. In order to overcome this situation, the introduction of robots and immigration may be considered, but from now on, it will probably be time for a ``society in which all citizens are dynamically engaged'' to include all men and women of all ages in the labor force. This is due to the timing of when pension payments begin, but there is a risk that introducing immigrants too easily will leave behind social problems. In fact, it is hoped that Japan will attract talented people from other countries, and Japan is currently looking for such an attraction. One way to make Japan more attractive would be to take advantage of the fact that the United Nations University headquarters is located in Tokyo and build a center of world policy scholarship in Japan, centered on the United Nations University.

 

Even with the introduction of robots and the cooperation of immigrants, it will be impossible to bring all Japanese people, young and old, into the labor force. The ideal would be to keep the economy running in a way that does not delay the start of pension payments as Japan recovers from the declining birthrate.

 

 *2 Quasi-market system

In an aging society with a declining birthrate, medical insurance and long-term care insurance will probably become financially strained. This is because it is highly dependent on the labor force participation rate. These insurance systems are industries in which markets have been artificially created through insurance premiums and public burdens. If the burden of insurance premiums is insufficient, it will be supported by public burden, but in the case of Japan, in a macro sense, this means collecting taxes (and government bonds) from the private sector that has overseas assets. It's here. However, if overseas assets are lost due to foreign influence, it will no longer be possible to do so, so it may be inevitable that Japan will eventually increase its military power (even if it focuses mainly on security relations through diplomacy).  Considering this, it is important that some industry (especially manufacturing) remains in the country, and a weaker yen may be more ideal than a strong yen. This is because the quasi-market system that supports medical and long-term care insurance is based on a substantive market system. Each of these constitutes a part of the economy, but there should be a concept of a more fundamental economic base.

 

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Civilizations and value 23 (progress of social science based on physics imperialism )

However, we must also point out that we are now at a point where it is possible to technologically advance democracy. Democracy has become technologically capable of absorbing the will of the people from the indirect to the direct, from the conscious to the unconscious. Is it better to leave the law blank, or should the public's will be gathered directly or unconsciously to form the law? Issues of regulation and freedom will likely arise even in a democracy.

 

On the other hand, new scholarship is also related to new democracy, and it seems likely that the focus will be on ``academics that bridge the gap between technological efficiency and social structural power.''

 

Looking at it from another angle, it may mean creating a system that can combine human knowledge to counter the development of AI . One such idea could be to ``create an academic capital by combining the real and virtual'' in a different sense from the political and administrative capital.

 

Also, although it is a modest international organization, the headquarters of the United Nations University is located in Japan. If the United Nations University were to be further enhanced and become a place for forming academic fields that form the basis of policy, it would increase Japan's international value and could be of international significance. It will also be an opportunity to attract excellent human resources from around the world to Japan.

 

When it comes to new disciplines, new energy, biotechnology, and the fusion of such new sciences are attracting more attention. However, what is at the center of this second great industrial revolution is the ``mechanization of the brain.'' Behind this is the problem of the evolution of social science, which is lagging far behind the development of science and technology. It would be important to incorporate elements of synthesis and especially mechanics into the social sciences. This is because one of the major reasons for the large difference in the speed of development between the social sciences and the natural sciences seems to have been whether or not they adopted the idea of mechanics* . Mechanics has evolved from classical mechanics to quantum mechanics, and has had a great influence on other disciplines (sometimes referred to as physics imperialism).

 

＊One of the major reasons for the large difference in the speed of development between social science and natural science seems to have been whether or not they adopted the idea of mechanics.

In fact, there are genres in the social sciences that seem to have adopted a mechanical way of thinking. That would be economics. In economics, concepts such as economic growth rate, interest rates, prices, investment, and savings have been viewed as numerical values and quantities, but these concepts could also be viewed as a force. Indeed, economics, especially classical economics, has played a role similar to that of physics imperialism within the social science genre. Although it may be inferior to this, Marxian economics also had a different dynamic behind it than classical economics. Statistics has come to occupy a large part in the world of physics, but this may also provide some suggestions for the social sciences, which must rely on statistics as their foundation. In a sense, just as physics is a biased worldview, economics is also a biased worldview. However, isn't globalism precisely the effort to realize that worldview in the real world? In this sense , it can be said that the 21st century in which we live has so far been an era of economic imperialism, following on from the 20th century when communism was a powerful force. I wonder if an era of ``Civilization Studies'' will emerge to overcome this problem .

 

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Civilizations and value 22 (not just cars that will be automated)

Deeply related to the age of AI and data, many things in human society will be able to be understood more accurately using numerical values. In other words, the number of genres that can be controlled will increase more than ever before.

 

This has been reflected particularly quickly in sectors of the economy. It can be said that it is a genre that has been digitized for a long time. Economics has continued to build a self-righteous worldview centered on the concept of "capital" in the 20th century, and even in the 21st century, but it is now beginning to show signs of change. Globalism has been thought to bring prosperity to the world through the effective use of resources by freeing the movement of capital, goods, and people. However, in reality, an unequal society has emerged in every corner of the world. Correcting disparities has not been possible in traditional democracy.

 

There are two levels to this problem. One of these is the question of whether the economic world should be defined at the global, civilizational, or national level. And it appears that civilization is beginning to show signs of becoming that way. This situation also seems to be related to the rise of China and India. China and India are nations and civilizations. Because of this situation, these two civilizations were included in the local civilization when classifying civilizations. This is because the factors that lead to integration seem to be familial and cultural rather than contractual.

 

Another possibility is that a system that improves on traditional democracy may be adopted by a nation. This improved democracy is not a society in which insurance premium rates and tax rates are determined through debates among members. This means that we will become a society in which insurance premium rates and tax rates are automatically adjusted based on figures such as national income, interest rates, and inflation rates. I believe we are on the verge of a society in which various issues faced by the people will be decided in a self-driving manner, rather than by complicated laws that the people cannot understand. It's not just cars that will be automated, but society itself as well. This direction is compatible with the development of smart cities, and also seems to be more compatible as a solution to global economic adjustment than democracy. In the end, we will arrive at a society that does not require politicians or civil servants to act as coordinators, and taxes may be significantly lower. However, since labor will gradually become unnecessary in the private sector as well, the nature of the workforce may be determined by the conflict between the private and public sectors.

 

*4 A form of reduced law that does not involve politics

It is said that the breakthrough of European civilization was due to the democratic system and the industrial revolution. In particular, since the history of Britain was the beginning of the first great industrial revolution, it is difficult to see clearly how the development of democracy and the industrial revolution were related, but for that reason, it would be difficult to see clearly how the development of democracy and the industrial revolution are related . I think this will be helpful when thinking about it. With the onset of the second great industrial revolution, the question is whether it is better for countries and governments to have more or less control power. In the state and government, the maintenance of vested interests has been deeply involved in control. For this reason, it may be possible that countries that consciously create an institutional space that eliminates politics and reduces the number of laws in the transition to new technologies may temporarily have an advantage. It can be said that this is a precious time when such a moment is needed in industrial policy.

 

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