Daisuke Matsuzaka is an elite talent, and he's the prize of the free-agent season. The question that remains is how good he's going to be in 2007 and beyond. So let's explore.
First off, let it be known that Matsuzaka grades out exceptionally well with scouts. He boasts a good fastball, good slider and an outstanding changeup/forkball, and on occasion he'll throw the mysterious gyroball to right-handed batters. He has good velocity and movement on all his pitches, and on the mound he's poised and aggressive and willing to use any pitch in any count. In other words, there's a lot to like about this 26-year-old.
As for his import status, it's generally accepted that the talent level of the Japanese Pacific League, where Matsuzaka has toiled for his entire professional career, is superior to the Triple-A circuits over here but not quite on par with MLB. However, Japanese parks tend to be of the bandbox variety, so while there's less "true" power to be found in Pacific Rim lineups, pitchers mostly work in less accommodating environments. The biggest adjustments for Matsuzaka figure to be pitching every fifth day instead of every sixth day (as is done in Japan) and facing lineups without as many manifest weak spots.
There are also injury and usage concerns. Matsuzaka has battled elbow problems in the past, and his workload is also a bit troublesome. Between ages 18 and 25, he worked more than 1,400 innings, which is certainly on the high side in historical terms. As well, one perhaps-sketchy tale has him logging more than 200 pitches in a single high-school playoff game.
Those are troubling things, but the relationship between workload and injury risk is often overstated. The safe bet is that he'll be able to pitch at his current level for at least the next season or three; however, he could be one of those pitchers whose performance degrades quickly as he enters his 30s. Of course, since his new contract will expire at age 32, the Red Sox may not care much about that.
So what can we expect of him? First, here are the numbers he put up from 2003-06 as a member of the Seibu Lions:
Year ＩＰ ＥＲＡ Ｋ ＢＢ ＨＲ
2003 194 2.83 215 63 13
2004 146 2.90 127 42 7
2005 215 2.30 226 49 13
2006 186 1/3 2.13 200 33 NA
As you can see, those are nifty numbers, and also to his credit is the general upward trend. Now comes the matter of translating this performance into MLB terms. This, suffice it to say, is a tricky and uncertain proposition, but we can make educated guesses as to how Matsuzaka will fare stateside, at least in 2007. Here's what some statistical analysts are saying about Matsuzaka's prospects for success:
●Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus pointed out that in terms of Normalized Runs Allowed (an advanced pitching metric that measures a pitcher's runs-per-game after correcting for league and home park influences) only Johan Santana, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter and Pedro Martinez have been better over the last four seasons. And, of course, that's in translated terms. So over that span, Matsuzaka has been better than starting pitchers such as Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, Tim Hudson, Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and others. Davenport also says Matsuzaka's most comparable pitcher over that span is Clemens.
●Mike Plugh over at the Matsuzaka Watch blog translated Matsuzaka's 2006 numbers into MLB terms. Here's what he got: 187.0 IP, 2.52 ERA, 181 K, 39 BB, 21 HR. And here's what Plugh thinks he would've done in 2005, based on his Pacific League numbers from that season: 215 IP, 2.74 ERA, 200 K, 63 BB, 16 HR. Not bad at all ...
●At The Hardball Times, Jeff Sackmann wondered what Matsuzaka's 2005 numbers would look like, in MLB terms, if you assumed the Pacific League was on par with the Triple-A International League. Here's what his translated big league line would look like: 215 IP, 3.44 ERA, 189 K, 65 BB, 18 HR. Strong numbers, but keep in mind that the quality of play in the Pacific League is notably superior to that of Triple-A. So those numbers really constitute a pessimistic forecast for Matsuzaka.
Overall, you've got a hurler who profiles as an ace or a reasonable facsimile thereof. Barring injury, the worst you'll see from Matsuzaka in 2007 is an ERA in the mid-3.00s; the best you'll see from him (given the run support he figures to get in Boston) is 20-plus wins and a Cy Young award. His fly-ball tendencies may hurt him at times in Fenway, but otherwise he'll be the best starter in the Boston rotation and maybe — just maybe — the best starting pitcher in baseball not named Johan Santana.
Wring hands all you want about that lofty posting fee, but the Red Sox are getting a 26-year-old ace for just more than $100 million. In this year's market, that's an eminently sensible contract.
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少し長いが、説得力のある内容。９０％は同感する。
２００７年は悪くて、防御率３．５０程度のでき。
良ければ、２０勝以上でサイヤング賞受賞。
現時点でも、サンタナに次ぐ、ナンバー２の投手。
