本篇paper代写- Tax cuts have had a negative impact on economic growth讨论了减税降负对经济增长的影响。减税降负政策的作用对象是通过释放市场活力来保证国民经济的持续稳定增长,采取的手段则是降低税收收入以及进一步清理费和基金。税收收入的增长使得政府可以有充足的财力来实现其职能,调节宏观经济平稳运行,税收收入的增长与经济增长之间存在正相关关系,财政财力充裕可以通过财政支出等来刺激消费,拉动经济增长。本篇paper代写由51due代写平台整理,供大家参考阅读。
Since the reform and opening up, in order to meet the goals and needs of economic development, China has been adjusting fiscal policies and steadily promoting the reform of fiscal and tax systems. Since the second half of 2008, China has implemented a proactive fiscal policy and introduced many specific measures to show that the coexistence of tax reduction and tax reform is a clear direction. In 2018, the ministry of finance said that China's macro tax rate has been declining for two consecutive years and will implement larger and more obvious tax cuts. The reason why China has implemented such a big tax cut is that: from the macro point of view, the increasing downward pressure on the economy and the uncertainty of international tax risk make the finance must form a certain risk resistance ability. From the micro point of view, the tax burden of enterprises is heavy and some enterprises still have to pay taxes under the operating difficulties, "tax pain" is strong, and the consumption demand of micro-economic subjects decreases. Therefore, as a tool of active fiscal policy, taxation is expected to regulate macro-economy, guide and stimulate economic development. But to taxpayers tax cuts down the negative is difficult to implement in a short period of time, the release of market dynamics is not achieved overnight, the government's tax cuts, the so JiangFei of revenue and expenditures are instant, the impact of various tax cuts at the same time can produce certain negative effect on operation of social economy, so how to do the necessary tax revenue for the steady growth of economy, namely how to adjust the tax policy goal is the focus of the tax cuts.
The policy of tax reduction and negative reduction aims to ensure the sustained and steady growth of the national economy by releasing market vitality, and to reduce tax revenue and further clean-up fees and funds. Therefore, two explanatory variables, tax revenue growth rate and non-tax revenue ratio, are finally selected to study the fluctuation rule of GDP growth rate Y. This paper excludes the influence of price level on income in different periods and adopts ratio index. Data samples were selected from the national data website of the national bureau of statistics of China from 1994 to 2018.
GDP growth rate of Y, the growth rate of GDP is commonly used to measure an important indicator of national economic operation, the tax policy goals to change reflected in the growth of tax revenue to GDP growth remains on a what kind of scale, tax revenue growth rate compared with the growth rate of GDP, too slow, cannot satisfy the need of fiscal expenditure; Too fast can cause burden to national economy move. Therefore, the growth rate of tax revenue should be kept in an appropriate proportion with the growth rate of GDP, so as to ensure that the government has sufficient financial resources to fulfill its functions and ensure stable economic development.
X1 tax revenue growth, the effects of tax tool directly reflected in the changes in the tax revenue growth, such as the 2012 China began to pilot to add "camp", to gradually expand the scope of the pilot, and then to implemented to add "camp" in 2016, during the tax revenue growth rate reduced year by year, from 12.1% in 2012 to 4.4% in 2016. The use of tax tools plays an important role in economic growth. According to the research of economist laffer, although higher tax revenue can guarantee immediate fiscal revenue, it will restrain economic growth, while tax reduction can stimulate economic growth, expand the tax base and increase tax revenue in future years.
The proportion of non-tax revenue is X2. The composition of China's fiscal revenue can be divided into non-tax revenue and tax revenue, which have their own distinct characteristics. Tax revenue has the three characteristics of gratuitous, fixed and mandatory, and is the most important form of regular fiscal revenue in the world. As a general means of government financing, it can be used by the government as a whole. Non-tax revenue mainly refers to "payment for the exchange of special goods and services provided by the public sector", which is often used as a means of financing for specific purposes of departments and localities. It is not fixed and therefore not sustainable. Maintaining the reasonable proportion of non-tax revenue in tax revenue, that is, maintaining the reasonable structure of fiscal revenue, is of great significance to economic development.
With the rapid development of economy and society, the gross domestic product and tax revenue have achieved substantial growth. The growth rate of tax revenue is basically coordinated with the growth rate of GDP and there is a certain positive correlation. From the statistical results, it can be found that from 1994 to 2018, the average GDP growth rate is 0.093 and the variance is 0.004, indicating that the economic growth changes in each year are small. The mean growth rate of tax revenue was 0.1568, the variance was 0.0040, and the mean variance ratio reached 2.60%, indicating that overall, the tax revenue growth was relatively stable and the adjustment range of tax policies was small. The mean proportion of non-tax revenue is 0.1173, the variance is 0.0033, and the mean variance ratio reaches 2.84%, indicating that tax policies have exerted great efforts in structural adjustment, confirming the supply-side structural reform emphasized since the end of 2015.
To ensure the stability of the results, this paper conducts unit root test on the data of GDP growth rate, tax revenue growth rate and non-tax revenue ratio. The test results show that, at the significance level of 10%, the t-statistic of the original series is greater than the corresponding DW critical value, and the original hypothesis is accepted as non-stationary series. However, in the test of first-order difference, at the significance level of 1%, t statistics of GDP growth rate, tax revenue growth rate and non-tax revenue ratio are all less than the corresponding DW critical value, rejecting the null hypothesis. Therefore, GDP growth rate, tax revenue growth rate and proportion of non-tax revenue all belong to first-order single integration I (1), meeting the requirements of co-integration test.
If the variable is disturbed in a certain period, it will deviate from its long-term equilibrium point. For example, the adjustment of tax objectives and the implementation of specific tax policies will interfere with the variable and lose the "equilibrium relationship". However, non-stationary economic variables have their own long-term fluctuation rules. If there is a co-integration relationship between them, even if economic variables deviate from the equilibrium point in a short term occasionally, the deviation will be eliminated by internal mechanism to ensure the long-term sustainability of the equilibrium relationship. In this paper, EG two-step method is used for co-integration test.
Y=0.059051+0.240205X1-0.032691X2+
Set ecm=resid. After inspection, the residual stationarity test results are obtained. P value is 0.0005. However, it is still possible to deviate from the equilibrium relationship in a short time due to the influence of error term. Here, ECM model is established to correct it, and the revised model is obtained:
DY = 0.02597 0.186419 X1 + 0.160349 X2-0.491759 the ecm (1)
In this model, from 1994 to 2018, the growth rate of GDP and tax revenue growth and non-tax revenue accounted for, maintain a long-term dynamic equilibrium relation between the ecm model for error correction, the error correction coefficient is 0.491759, namely when short-term direction deviating from the equilibrium, with 49.18% of the efforts will be unbalanced state back to equilibrium.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the coefficient of X1 indicates that the GDP growth rate increases by 0.186 percentage points for each 1% increase in the growth rate of tax revenue. This growth relationship conforms to the law of economic development and passes the economic significance test. The coefficient of X2 indicates that for every 1% increase in the ratio of non-tax income to tax income, the GDP growth rate will be reduced by 0.16 percentage points, indicating that too high a proportion of non-tax income is not conducive to economic development.
This article analyzes our country tax revenue in 1994-2018, fiscal revenue and gross domestic product (GDP) data as the research foundation, to build a multiple linear regression model, the GDP growth rate series, the tax revenue growth and sequence of non-tax revenue accounted for unit root test, the results show that the original sequence on the 10% significance level are not stable. However, the first-order difference sequences of variables are stationary sequences at the significance level of 1%. Then the co-integration test of the variables was carried out and corrected, and it was found that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables.
The research results show that the growth of tax revenue allows the government to have sufficient financial resources to achieve its functions, adjust the macro economy running smoothly, the growth of tax revenue and economic growth exists positive correlation between: on the one hand, abundant financial resources can be through the provision of public goods to facilitate the growth of the economy in our country, and lay the foundation; On the other hand, abundant fiscal resources can stimulate consumption and stimulate economic growth through fiscal expenditure. Therefore, the large-scale tax reduction and reduction of the total amount is bound to affect the operation of the economy. However, the "tax pain" of taxpayers is a real problem that needs to be solved urgently. In order to ensure the smooth operation of the national economy and expand the space for tax reduction and negative impact, tax policy objectives should be carefully adjusted. From the relationship between the ratio of non-tax revenue to tax revenue and GDP growth rate, it is a clear policy idea to optimize the structure of fiscal revenue. Taxpayers' tax pain "strongly a large part of the macro tax burden is due to the large diameter parts contained in the payment system of non-taxable income, so tax cuts down the negative to the overall view, through the appropriate lower social security and land price, electricity, gas, road toll fees, management fees, further rectification fee and fund, QingFei state tax, reduce the proportion of non-tax revenue, increase the share of tax revenues, thus ensuring a steady economic growth.
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