EVENT201というサイトがある。
コロナウイルスのパンデミックをシミュレーションしたもので実施時期は２０１９年１０月１８日である。
今、世界の新型コロナ患者集計の要になっているJohns Hopkins 大学の主催のようである。
このシミュレーション予想ではパンデミックは１８ヶ月続き、世界で６５００万人の死者がでるという。
よく読むと、今回のコロナ・パンデミックの様相をよく言い当てている。
以下にステートメントを載せる。
Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise
In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019.
コロナウイルスのパンデミックをシミュレーションしたもので実施時期は２０１９年１０月１８日である。
今、世界の新型コロナ患者集計の要になっているJohns Hopkins 大学の主催のようである。
このシミュレーション予想ではパンデミックは１８ヶ月続き、世界で６５００万人の死者がでるという。
よく読むと、今回のコロナ・パンデミックの様相をよく言い当てている。
以下にステートメントを載せる。
Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise
In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019.
