下面为大家整理一篇优秀的paper代写范文- Argentina's debt crisis,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了阿根廷的债务危机。2018年,阿根廷货币比索就不断地下跌,金融风暴席卷阿根廷汇兑市场。5月初,比索暴跌35%,基本处于崩盘的走势。5月3日当天,美元汇率涨幅8.27%,1美元兑换23.3比索的最低纪录被打破。9月中旬,阿根廷存款利率降到60%,比索严重贬值,通货膨胀比率上升,在债务负担和货币通胀的牢牢束缚下,阿根廷经济濒临崩溃。
The peso steadied against the dollar on May 7th after Argentina's central bank sold its dollar reserves to the market and adjusted its benchmark interest rate. The peso has fallen 12 per cent against the dollar in the past 10 days. It fell 8.5 per cent yesterday to a record low of 23 pesos to the dollar, its biggest drop in almost two years. The fact that Argentine football fans borrowed money at high interest rates to watch the World Cup in July was a sign of both the country's soccer mania and the country's economic woes -- the devaluation of the peso. By early September, the Argentine peso had lost more than 50% of its value; When the central bank set interest rates at 60 per cent, the peso fell by 20 per cent, leaving the peso crying. With inflation expected to be close to 40 percent and public debt expected to be 87 percent of gross domestic product, higher than the 52 percent estimated by the international monetary fund a year ago, Argentina is Mired in low growth and high inflation.
The Argentine government has taken a series of measures to prevent continued volatility in exchange markets. Dukhov, the finance minister, announced that new bond issues would be scrapped and public investment cut to 50% by the end of the year to reduce the deficit. The central bank raised interest rates three times a week, raising the bank's reference rate to 40%. At the same time, the central bank also sold a lot of us dollars to stabilize the volatility of the currency market. Since march, the central bank has sold up to 7 billion dollars to keep the currency market stable. In addition, in an effort to restore market information, the government will accelerate the pace of adjusting the prices of public services, aiming to keep inflation below 15 per cent by the end of the year. For now, Argentina's economic recovery still faces serious difficulties, and the road to financial reform is bound to be bumpy.
Since December 2017, Argentina has experienced a severe drought that has brought down its agricultural economy, a major source of exports. According to the Argentine grain exchange, the collapse in soybean and corn production cost Argentina nearly $6 billion and reduced the country's GDP by 1%, hurting exports and the food-processing industry that depends on those crops. In addition, primary products such as grains and fruits accounted for 47 percent and 21 percent of Argentina's exports, respectively. In addition, the price of grains and fruits continued to weaken, and Argentina's current account shifted from surplus to deficit. This unitary export pattern further exacerbated Argentina's balance of payments imbalance. At the same time, in order to protect the domestic manufacturing industry, Argentina has adopted the import substitution policy for a long time. As a result, the domestic manufacturing industry is unable to compete with foreign countries and absorb less and less international investment capital, which is difficult to prevent the worsening financial situation in Argentina.
In early September 2018, us interest rates rose, the us dollar continued to strengthen, and the Argentine peso experienced a precipitous devaluation. Some scholars pointed out that the devaluation of peso would exceed 100%, which greatly reduced the attraction of emerging economies.
Argentina's currency board system of fixed exchange rates led to a serious devaluation of the peso, which greatly weakened the international competitiveness of commodities and severely hit Argentina's trade exports. Generally speaking, if a country pegs to a strong currency, which allows unlimited convertibility under a fixed exchange rate system, it must have very close trade links with the pegging country. But Argentina's share of exports to the us, at just 12 per cent, is far lower than that of the UK and France. The fixed exchange rate system makes Argentina fall into the situation of sluggish exports and weak economy. The Argentine government is unable to flexibly use monetary policy and can only use limited fiscal policy to get out of the current predicament. To this end, the Argentine government must ask the international monetary fund for a loan in return for a substantial reduction in the fiscal deficit. However, the deteriorating economic situation has forced the macri government to bring forward talks in Washington with the international monetary fund on disbursing aid funds in return for next year's fiscal balance.
Since 2016, the Argentine government has engaged in a wide range of sovereign debt financing, and the scale of foreign debt has continued to expand. By the end of 2017, the foreign debt had accumulated to $233 billion, an increase of about 28 percent compared with 2015. In addition, former President cristina fernandez DE kirchner increased subsidies for the disabled and the poor during her time in office, as well as printing money to change the balance of payments deficit, which not only increased government spending but also triggered serious inflation. Mr Macri's government scrapped some subsidies in 2017, about 17 per cent less than in 2016, in an effort to save the country's ailing economy. But the reduction in subsidies has led to a rise in commodity prices, combined with a severe devaluation of the currency, and inflation is expected to exceed 40% this year. In addition, Argentine Banks were unable to turn over funds normally and the huge civil service was not restrained in financial expenditure, further aggravating the financial burden on the government. Argentina's economy is in dire straits because its large foreign debt and frequent defaults make it difficult to get investment and aid from international organizations.
The United States and other western countries have been advocating the superiority of private property rights system, and relying on their own international status, forced to promote financial liberalization policies in the world, induced Argentina to promote large-scale privatization at home, so that Argentina gradually fell into economic difficulties. Because private capital is weak in Argentina, state-owned enterprises are the main pillars of the economy; Privatization of state-owned enterprises will greatly reduce the competitiveness of national industries, weaken the state's control over the economic lifeline and strategic industries, and even lose the ability to bargain with international capital. Now, these countries refuse to provide international financial aid to Argentina for a small reason of lack of public collateral, and some even go so far as to embezzle the personal savings of the Argentine people, increasing the financial burden of the Argentine government. In addition, argentines have sought to avoid the current economic risks by converting their pesos into dollars and transferring them to foreign institutions such as jpmorgan chase. However, instead of taking proper care of their assets, foreign institutions engaged in extensive money-laundering activities, resulting in huge property losses for Argentine nationals. At the same time, corruption was rampant in Argentina, many bureaucratic comprador colluded with foreign capital, causing huge wealth to drain abroad, and the government's debt increased rather than decreased, gradually pushing Argentina to the brink of financial bankruptcy.
Argentina is located in the southeast of South America, east of the Atlantic ocean, rich in natural resources, very developed farming, food and meat accounted for a large share of Argentina's foreign trade. But a severe drought in 2017 led to a massive reduction in Argentina's food production, exacerbating its balance of payments imbalance. So instead of relying solely on agricultural exports, Argentina should diversify into manufacturing and financial services. The Afghan government should actively implement the policy of opening to the outside world, encourage foreign enterprises to participate in the domestic petrochemical industry, warehousing and logistics and other industries, and create a good investment environment for them. In addition, actively introducing foreign-funded institutions, allowing them to set up branches and branches in their own countries, on the one hand, can bring advanced technology and management experience to boost employment in China, on the other hand, it can also stimulate the innovation and reform of domestic enterprises and enhance their core competitiveness. Developing diversified industrial models can make the domestic economic structure more perfect and the products exported to foreign countries more abundant. It can also make greater use of foreign capital to boost domestic economic growth. At the same time, it can avoid the imbalance of international payments caused by the single industrial structure, ensure the stable operation of macro economy to a greater extent, and restrain the occurrence of domestic debt crisis.
The Argentine government blindly implemented financial liberalization at home and fully opened the securities banking industry to foreign investors. Within a few years, the control of financial lifeline fell into the hands of western countries, leading to a serious debt crisis in the country. The Argentine debt crisis reminds us that financial openness is like a "double-edged sword". Good use can promote the country's economic growth quickly, while bad use may undermine the country's financial security. For the us has relied on dollar hegemony to run the imf, forcing other countries to pursue financial liberalisation policies as part of global economic expansion. Therefore, when we open up the financial sector, we must take into account our own national conditions and steadily open up the financial sector. We must be prudent in opening up the banking, securities and other sectors, and exercise certain financial controls over capital flow projects when necessary, so as to eliminate the impact of certain unexpected factors on the macro economy. In addition, in today's turbulent world, China should adopt a flexible exchange rate system in order to attract foreign investment and promote trade openness. In some special time can adopt fixed exchange rate system, but must base on the economic situation at that time, ensure the country's financial security.
Much of Argentina's current difficulties and setbacks have to do with excessive government intervention. Therefore, when our country is developing economy, should coordinate the relation between the government and the market, when the government carries on the intervention, strengthens the market proper self-regulation function. In addition, it is important to vigorously attract foreign investment, alleviate the shortage of domestic capital, and promote the economic and social development of the country, but debt must consider the use of the project and the country's ability to repay. Even though our economy is in good shape and our fiscal deficit is well below the risk threshold set by the international rules, we cannot afford to be complacent. In order to attract foreign investment, some local governments have blindly borrowed money for development, resulting in a series of local debt problems. Most of the funds raised by local authorities come from Banks. Once their debts expand, a large amount of debt risks will accumulate, causing a major impact on the banking industry and threatening the financial security of the country to some extent. Therefore, China should establish a debt safety early warning mechanism, pay close attention to the debt management of local governments, and promote economic development while ensuring financial security.
Because of the lack of financial regulation in Argentina, the interest groups of the comprador have been generated. In the process of financial opening, these interests listen to the Suggestions of privatization and liberalization of western countries, ignore the strong impact of foreign enterprises on domestic enterprises, allow foreign institutions to dominate domestic strategic industries such as securities and banking, and even give up the regulation of international capital flows, so as to obtain huge corruption benefits. This rampant behavior has brought huge debt pressure to the domestic economy. Therefore, the Argentine government should strengthen financial regulation, curb the collusion between bureaucratic comprador and foreign capital, and guard against the erosion of international capital. In addition, due to fiscal indiscipline, Argentina has been running a huge fiscal deficit, and the market is unable to repay the debt. Once there is financial turmoil, it is easy to erupt a debt crisis. Therefore, the Argentine government should strengthen fiscal discipline and reform fiscal mechanism. First, we should cut down government agencies, eliminate useless personnel and improve the efficiency of government. Second, reform the social security mechanism, reduce public welfare, reduce fiscal expenditure; Finally, we should adjust the tax rate reasonably, strengthen tax administration, put an end to tax evasion and punish all kinds of corruption. Only in this way can the domestic fiscal burden be reduced and the debt crisis be avoided.
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