新型コロナウイルス、武漢の感染拡大像、基本再生産数2.2、潜伏期5.2日（nejm）

nijm論文から。

• 武漢の４２５例。
• 年齢中央値は５９歳、管理人と同年齢。
• ５６％が男性。
• 元旦以前に発症の５５%は魚市場に関連。
• 平均潜伏期は5.2日。12.5日間に分布。
• 初期には7.4日ごとに感染者数倍増。
• 基本再生産数は2.2
•  
• Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days

(95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

List of authors.

• Qun Li, M.Med., 
• Xuhua Guan, Ph.D., 
• Peng Wu, Ph.D., 
• Xiaoye Wang, M.P.H., 
• Lei Zhou, M.Med., 
• Yeqing Tong, Ph.D., 
• Ruiqi Ren, M.Med., 
• Kathy S.M. Leung, Ph.D., 
• Eric H.Y. Lau, Ph.D., 
• Jessica Y. Wong, Ph.D., 
• Xuesen Xing, Ph.D., 
• Nijuan Xiang, M.Med., 
• January 29, 2020
  DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa200131