North Korea’s latest missile launch has caused more concern than usual, as experts suspect it may have been a second trial run of a worrisome new technology.
Wednesday’s launch came a day ahead of US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, and some think the timing may not be coincidental.
Early analyses suggest the projectile may have been a KN-15 medium-range missile, also known as the "Pukguksong-2," which features increased mobility, decreased detectability and shorter times for launch preparation, due to its use of pre-loaded solid fuel.
It is believed that the KN-15 missile was first launched in February and traveled about 310 miles. The most recent launch flew about 40 miles from the eastern port city of Sinpo, according to the South Korean military.
Some experts say the KN-15 may be a greater security threat than its first iteration, due to its ability to be launched from a vehicle. A second KN-15 test could also signal an advance in the development of a solid fuel projectile that could reach the US mainland, according to one expert.
There are conflicting views on what type of missile was used in the launch. On Wednesday, an unnamed White House official stated, "We are now certain it was a liquid-fueled Scud … It spun out of control after going only a fraction of its range."
Typically liquid fuel is used is Pyongyang’s missiles, and before the projectiles are fired they usually have to receive the fuel on the launch pad.
One South Korean official said, "The launch took place possibly in consideration of the US-China summit, while at the same time it was to check its missile capability."
"There's absolutely no reason for North Korea to fire the KN-15 again this way; the launch measurements show something similar to when developing missiles are flight-tested for the first time for data-gathering purposes," said analyst Kim Dong-yub from South Korea’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies.
Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) President Ralph Cossa said he expected a possible nuclear test from Pyongyang as Xi met with Trump, and posited that the launch may be a sign of more to come as Thursday’s summit approaches.
"I've joked before that they don't mind being hated but they definitely hate to be ignored," he said.
The North has demonstrated something of a penchant for conducting launches during significant political events, such as firing four missiles into the Sea of Japan as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson last month.
Tillerson didn’t have much to say about Wednesday’s launch, remarking that "the United States has spoken enough about North Korea."
During a recent trip to Asia, Tillerson strongly implied that Washington was prepared to utilize military tactics to address North Korean provocation.
Japan strongly denounced the launch, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga calling it "extremely problematic."
Satellite imagery recently released by North Korean watchdog site 38 North shows increased excavation activity and the laying of communicating lines, indicating a possible test from the Punggye-ri nuclear test site.
戦略的忍耐の期間は終わった。
『軍事ジャーナリストの世良光弘氏が言う。
「金正恩委員長が６回目の核実験に踏み切ったり、『ムスダン』『北極星２号』といった射程２０００キロ以上の中距離弾道ミサイルを米軍の拠点のグアム、ハワイに向けて発射したら、即時開戦となる可能性が高い。米国の威嚇に北朝鮮が挑発で応じる今の状況を踏まえると、１５日の『故金日成主席生誕１０５周年』、２５日の『朝鮮人民軍創建８５周年』が“Ｘデー”になるかもしれません」
Ｘデーは金正恩を暗殺する“斬首作戦”になるかもしれないし、もっと大がかりなものになるかもしれない。
「トランプ政権の目標は、北朝鮮のミサイル・核兵器の封じ込めです。そのためには圧倒的で大規模な作戦も予想されます。米国本土やグアム基地からステルス爆撃機Ｂ２を朝鮮半島に飛来させ、３万ポンドの大型貫通爆弾を核施設に撃ち込んで一気に破壊しようとするかもしれない。米軍は暗闇で行う奇襲作戦を好む傾向がある。新月を迎える直前の４月２５日深夜あたりに一段と緊張が高まりそうです」（世良光弘氏） 』ゲンダイ
abcn
The statement from U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson totaled 23 words: "North Korea launched yet another intermediate range ballistic missile. The United States has spoken enough about North Korea. We have no further comment."
While Tillerson's statement was unusually short and vague, experts in South Korea and Japan saw it as a sign of consistency on how the United States under President Donald Trump will deal with North Korea as it speeds up its nuclear weapon and missile developments.
North Korea with its missile launches probably wants to create attention and use it as leverage for concessions, but Tillerson with his statement has sent a stern message that the United States won't be a party to it, South Korean experts said.
"It seems Tillerson purposefully issued a short statement to send a tough signal," said Kim Sung-han, a professor at Seoul's Korea University and a former South Korean deputy foreign minister. "He is making it clear that, no matter what North Korea does, the United States won't commit to direct negotiations unless Pyongyang shows real willingness for disarmament."
Bong Youngshik, a researcher at Yonsei University's Institute for North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Tillerson's statement would have also been aimed at China ahead of President Xi Jinping's first meeting with Trump later this week in Florida.
Trump is likely to urge China's leader to take up stronger role in pressuring the North to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and Tillerson's statement is a way of stressing it's time for action on North Korea, not just talk, Bong said.
Tillerson also might stop making routine statements after every North Korean provocation or missile launch, Bong said.
"It is what it is," Bong said. "There's really no need for Tillerson to react every time when North Korea does something. The United States has moved on and is now trying to resolve problem through a larger scale, such as the summit with China shows."
While Trump and his top policymakers continue their tough talk on the North Korean issue, it's unclear such rhetoric would be enough to effectively influence North Korea and China, Pyongyang's only major ally.
Every North Korean nuclear test and missile launch reminds the United States and its allies of the limited options they have on Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.
A military strike on the North's nuclear or missile facilities risks triggering a devastating war that could quickly kill hundreds of thousands. The effect of further sanctions is questionable as North Korea puts the survival of its ruling elite before the wellbeing of its struggling populace and already is one of the most heavily penalized places on earth. Renewing negotiations with Pyongyang would require trust that it won't pocket aid and renege on any promises.
Tillerson in a visit to China last month declared an end to the Obama administration's "strategic patience" policy to wait out Pyongyang until it caves and decides to denuclearize, but the Trump administration has yet to reveal any meaningfully different approach.
Narushige Michishita, an expert from Tokyo's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said Trump's efforts to "sound scary" won't work with Pyongyang and Beijing if he fails to back his words with action.
【ワシントン＝加納宏幸】米ホワイトハウスは５日、トランプ大統領が北朝鮮による中距離弾道ミサイル発射を受けて安倍晋三首相と電話会談し、「米国として引き続き抑止力を強化し、あらゆる軍事的能力を使って自国と同盟国を守る」と伝えたと発表した。
トランプ氏は電話会談で、北朝鮮がもたらす「深刻な脅威」に直面する同盟国の日本や韓国を支えると強調。北朝鮮による核・ミサイル開発など地域の課題に関する協力を強化するため、引き続き緊密に連絡を取り合っていくことを確認した。
Wednesday’s launch came a day ahead of US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, and some think the timing may not be coincidental.
Early analyses suggest the projectile may have been a KN-15 medium-range missile, also known as the "Pukguksong-2," which features increased mobility, decreased detectability and shorter times for launch preparation, due to its use of pre-loaded solid fuel.
It is believed that the KN-15 missile was first launched in February and traveled about 310 miles. The most recent launch flew about 40 miles from the eastern port city of Sinpo, according to the South Korean military.
Some experts say the KN-15 may be a greater security threat than its first iteration, due to its ability to be launched from a vehicle. A second KN-15 test could also signal an advance in the development of a solid fuel projectile that could reach the US mainland, according to one expert.
There are conflicting views on what type of missile was used in the launch. On Wednesday, an unnamed White House official stated, "We are now certain it was a liquid-fueled Scud … It spun out of control after going only a fraction of its range."
Typically liquid fuel is used is Pyongyang’s missiles, and before the projectiles are fired they usually have to receive the fuel on the launch pad.
One South Korean official said, "The launch took place possibly in consideration of the US-China summit, while at the same time it was to check its missile capability."
"There's absolutely no reason for North Korea to fire the KN-15 again this way; the launch measurements show something similar to when developing missiles are flight-tested for the first time for data-gathering purposes," said analyst Kim Dong-yub from South Korea’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies.
Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) President Ralph Cossa said he expected a possible nuclear test from Pyongyang as Xi met with Trump, and posited that the launch may be a sign of more to come as Thursday’s summit approaches.
"I've joked before that they don't mind being hated but they definitely hate to be ignored," he said.
The North has demonstrated something of a penchant for conducting launches during significant political events, such as firing four missiles into the Sea of Japan as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson last month.
Tillerson didn’t have much to say about Wednesday’s launch, remarking that "the United States has spoken enough about North Korea."
During a recent trip to Asia, Tillerson strongly implied that Washington was prepared to utilize military tactics to address North Korean provocation.
Japan strongly denounced the launch, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga calling it "extremely problematic."
Satellite imagery recently released by North Korean watchdog site 38 North shows increased excavation activity and the laying of communicating lines, indicating a possible test from the Punggye-ri nuclear test site.
戦略的忍耐の期間は終わった。
『軍事ジャーナリストの世良光弘氏が言う。
「金正恩委員長が６回目の核実験に踏み切ったり、『ムスダン』『北極星２号』といった射程２０００キロ以上の中距離弾道ミサイルを米軍の拠点のグアム、ハワイに向けて発射したら、即時開戦となる可能性が高い。米国の威嚇に北朝鮮が挑発で応じる今の状況を踏まえると、１５日の『故金日成主席生誕１０５周年』、２５日の『朝鮮人民軍創建８５周年』が“Ｘデー”になるかもしれません」
Ｘデーは金正恩を暗殺する“斬首作戦”になるかもしれないし、もっと大がかりなものになるかもしれない。
「トランプ政権の目標は、北朝鮮のミサイル・核兵器の封じ込めです。そのためには圧倒的で大規模な作戦も予想されます。米国本土やグアム基地からステルス爆撃機Ｂ２を朝鮮半島に飛来させ、３万ポンドの大型貫通爆弾を核施設に撃ち込んで一気に破壊しようとするかもしれない。米軍は暗闇で行う奇襲作戦を好む傾向がある。新月を迎える直前の４月２５日深夜あたりに一段と緊張が高まりそうです」（世良光弘氏） 』ゲンダイ
abcn
The statement from U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson totaled 23 words: "North Korea launched yet another intermediate range ballistic missile. The United States has spoken enough about North Korea. We have no further comment."
While Tillerson's statement was unusually short and vague, experts in South Korea and Japan saw it as a sign of consistency on how the United States under President Donald Trump will deal with North Korea as it speeds up its nuclear weapon and missile developments.
North Korea with its missile launches probably wants to create attention and use it as leverage for concessions, but Tillerson with his statement has sent a stern message that the United States won't be a party to it, South Korean experts said.
"It seems Tillerson purposefully issued a short statement to send a tough signal," said Kim Sung-han, a professor at Seoul's Korea University and a former South Korean deputy foreign minister. "He is making it clear that, no matter what North Korea does, the United States won't commit to direct negotiations unless Pyongyang shows real willingness for disarmament."
Bong Youngshik, a researcher at Yonsei University's Institute for North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Tillerson's statement would have also been aimed at China ahead of President Xi Jinping's first meeting with Trump later this week in Florida.
Trump is likely to urge China's leader to take up stronger role in pressuring the North to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and Tillerson's statement is a way of stressing it's time for action on North Korea, not just talk, Bong said.
Tillerson also might stop making routine statements after every North Korean provocation or missile launch, Bong said.
"It is what it is," Bong said. "There's really no need for Tillerson to react every time when North Korea does something. The United States has moved on and is now trying to resolve problem through a larger scale, such as the summit with China shows."
While Trump and his top policymakers continue their tough talk on the North Korean issue, it's unclear such rhetoric would be enough to effectively influence North Korea and China, Pyongyang's only major ally.
Every North Korean nuclear test and missile launch reminds the United States and its allies of the limited options they have on Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.
A military strike on the North's nuclear or missile facilities risks triggering a devastating war that could quickly kill hundreds of thousands. The effect of further sanctions is questionable as North Korea puts the survival of its ruling elite before the wellbeing of its struggling populace and already is one of the most heavily penalized places on earth. Renewing negotiations with Pyongyang would require trust that it won't pocket aid and renege on any promises.
Tillerson in a visit to China last month declared an end to the Obama administration's "strategic patience" policy to wait out Pyongyang until it caves and decides to denuclearize, but the Trump administration has yet to reveal any meaningfully different approach.
Narushige Michishita, an expert from Tokyo's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said Trump's efforts to "sound scary" won't work with Pyongyang and Beijing if he fails to back his words with action.
【ワシントン＝加納宏幸】米ホワイトハウスは５日、トランプ大統領が北朝鮮による中距離弾道ミサイル発射を受けて安倍晋三首相と電話会談し、「米国として引き続き抑止力を強化し、あらゆる軍事的能力を使って自国と同盟国を守る」と伝えたと発表した。
トランプ氏は電話会談で、北朝鮮がもたらす「深刻な脅威」に直面する同盟国の日本や韓国を支えると強調。北朝鮮による核・ミサイル開発など地域の課題に関する協力を強化するため、引き続き緊密に連絡を取り合っていくことを確認した。
