公開メモ DXM 1977 ヒストリエ

切り取りダイジェストは再掲。新記事はたまに再開。裏表紙書きは過去記事の余白リサイクル。

経済戦争の始まりなのか

2018-03-15 00:31:17 | ロシア
『英国のメイ首相は14日、英国は諜報活動をしているロシア人外交官23人の国外追放を決定したと発表した。


メイ首相は「これは30年以上ぶりの最も大規模な一斉追放となる。秘密諜報員として判断された者は全員(中略) 彼らには、去るための(時間が)1週間ある」と指摘した。

先にインディペンデント紙は、英国ソールズベリーでロシア軍参謀本部情報総局(GRU)の元将校セルゲイ・スクリパリ氏が毒を盛られた事件を受け、メイ首相がロシアに対する経済戦争を計画していると報じた。

また国連安全保障理事会が14日、スクリパリ氏の事件について議論するために公開会合を開くことがわかった。』

追補2018.3.30
2018年03月30日 17:20
サウジアラビアのムハンマド皇太子が、10~15年後のイランとの軍事紛争の可能性について警告した。

スプートニク日本

ムハンマド皇太子は、ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル紙とのインタビューで、国際共同体に対し、地域における軍事対立を避けるため、イラン政府に対してより強硬な制裁を導入するよう呼びかけた。

2014年からイスラム教シーア派系武装勢力「アンサール・アッラー」のフーシ派と政府軍の間で軍事紛争が続いているイエメンでフーシ派に兵器を不法供給しているとして、サウジアラビア政府はイラン政府を非難している。

サウジアラビア政府主導のアラブ有志連合が政府を空と陸から支援し、フーシ派はこれに対する報復として、サウジアラビア領方向にミサイルを定期的に発射している。

"We actually have evidence, which we’ve collected over the past 10 years, that Russia not only worked on the development of nerve agents for the purpose of committing murder but also created and stored [the substance] "Novichok", British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson said to the BBC

** **
外交官の追放は、臨検と同じ独立国の権利だから、ロシアには止められない。防諜活動の強化はEU離脱、ミサイル防衛網の再構築と無縁ではない。次はロシアの金融資産の凍結があるかもしれない。それから→翌日『メイ首相は外交官追放のほか、ロシアとの間で予定されていたハイレベルの外交接触を全て停止し、「英国民の生命や財産に脅威となる」ロシアの国家資産を凍結する方針を発表。』

キッシンジャーのいない世界は米中ロ三色スーパーパワーゲーム(戦略核を持たない日本と欧州は除く)同等程度に覇権を持ち、ロシア→米国→中国と政治的な支援をして、中国→米国→ロシアと軍事的に牽制し、ロシアは欧州を牽制し欧州は中国を支援する。日本は潰して無視するのがキッシンジャーの夢だったが、どうなるか。彼は三色スーパーパワー相互の三つ巴で世界が安定するのを信じていた(キッシンジャーはまだ死んではいないが、ティラーソン解任でパワーは失われた)。ポスト・キッシンジャーの世界情勢が早速英国とロシアの間で始まっている。核を持つ英国にはもう一度世界政治(支配する側)に復権しようというアングロ・アメリカの野望がある。今度の暗殺事件は欧州をロシア圏に引き込むプーチンの戦略の一環であり、メルケル=プーチン合意が背景にある。軍事力の乏しい欧州にロシアが軍事力で結びつくロシアは欧州というお客を安定的に手元における。間接的に欧州とロシアと中国が利害共同体になれば世界の政治力学は中心がユーラシアに移ってしまう。英国の本当の危機感は旧ソビエト時代に開発された「ノヴィチョクNovichok」*による暗殺に震え上がったら欧州を防波堤にできなくなる危機感にある。ポスト・キッシンジャーの欧州はフランスと南欧州を切り離した北欧州の半分はドイツロシア経済圏になり、ドイツ銀行の大きなデリバティブの崩壊放棄とともにドイツのユーロ離脱、これに代わるユーラシア版マルクの復活がやがてドイツとロシアの間の経済圏メカニズムに見られることだろう。英国は新たなアングロ・アメリカの再構築へと向かってゆくだろう。ユーラシア対アングロアメリカの青図を置きながら強硬姿勢を選択したメイ首相の政治センスは冴えている。超限軍事運用で優位になったロシアはアングロ・アメリカの明確な敵になる。出来レースの冷戦ではない本当の東西対立が生まれる。

*
Novichok agent
Novichok (Russian: Новичо́к, "newcomer") is a series of nerve agents developed by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s.[1] Russian scientists who worked on the development of the agents have claimed that they are the most deadly nerve agents ever made, with some variants possibly five to eight times more potent than VX.[2][3] They were designed as part of a Soviet program codenamed "Foliant".[4] Initially designated K-84 and later renamed A-230, there are more than 100 Novichok variants.[5] The most versatile was A-232 (Novichok-5).[6]

Novichok agents have never been used on the battlefield. Theresa May, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, said that one such agent was used in the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in England in March 2018.[7] Russia has officially denied producing or researching Novichok agents.[8]

In 2013 the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Scientific Advisory Board reported that it had insufficient information to comment on the existence or properties of Novichok agents,[9] and in 2011 it had noted there was no peer reviewed paper on Novichok agents in the scientific literature.[10]

Design objectives

These agents were designed to achieve four objectives:[11][12]

To be undetectable using standard 1970s and 80s NATO chemical detection equipment;
To defeat NATO chemical protective gear;
To be safer to handle;
To circumvent the Chemical Weapons Convention list of controlled precursors, classes of chemical and physical form.
All these objectives were claimed to have been achieved.

Some of these agents are binary weapons, in which precursors for the nerve agents are mixed in a munition to produce the agent just prior to its use. Because the precursors are generally significantly less hazardous than the agents themselves, this technique makes handling and transporting the munitions a great deal simpler. Additionally, precursors to the agents are usually much easier to stabilize than the agents themselves, so this technique also made it possible to increase the shelf life of the agents. This has the disadvantage that careless preparation may produce a non-optimal agent. During the 1980s and 1990s, binary versions of several Soviet agents were developed and are designated as "Novichok" agents.

Disclosure

Extremely potent fourth-generation chemical weapons were developed in the Soviet Union and Russia from the 1970s until the early 1990s, according to a publication by two chemists, Lev Fedorov and Vil Mirzayanov in Moskovskiye Novosti weekly in 1992.[13][14][a] The publication appeared just on the eve of Russia's signing of the Chemical Weapons Convention. According to Mirzayanov, the Russian Military Chemical Complex (MCC) was using defense conversion money received from the West for development of a chemical warfare facility.[2][3] Mirzayanov made his disclosure out of environmental concerns. He was a head of a counter-intelligence department and performed measurements outside the chemical weapons facilities to make sure that foreign spies could not detect any traces of production. To his horror, the levels of deadly substances were 80 times greater than the maximum safe concentration.[3][15]

The existence of Novichok agents was admitted by Russian military industrial complex authorities when they brought a treason case against Mirzayanov. According to expert witness testimonies prepared for the KGB by three scientists, Novichok and other related chemical agents had indeed been produced and therefore the disclosure by Mirzayanov represented high treason.[b]

Mirzayanov was arrested on 22 October 1992 and sent to Lefortovo prison for divulging state secrets. He was released later because "not one of the formulas or names of poisonous substances in the Moscow News article was new to the Soviet press, nor were locations ... of testing sites revealed."[3] According to Yevgenia Albats, "the real state secret revealed by Fyodorov and Mirzayanov was that generals had lied—and were still lying—to both the international community and their fellow citizens."[3] Mirzayanov now lives in the U.S.[17]

Further disclosures followed when Vladimir Uglev, one of Russia's leading binary weapons scientists, revealed the existence of A-232/Novichok-5 in an interview with the magazine Novoye Vremya in early 1994.[18]

Development and test sites

Stephanie Fitzpatrick, an American geopolitical consultant, has claimed that one of the key manufacturing sites was the Soviet State Scientific Research Institute for Organic Chemistry and Technology (GosNIIOKhT) in Nukus, Soviet Uzbekistan.[19] Small, experimental batches of the weapons may have been tested on the nearby Ustyurt plateau.[20] It may also have been tested in a research centre in Krasnoarmeysk near Moscow.[19] Precursor chemicals were made at the Pavlodar Chemical Plant in Soviet Kazakhstan, which was also thought to be the intended Novichok weapons production site, until its still-under-construction chemical warfare agent production building was demolished in 1987 in view of the forthcoming Chemical Weapons Convention.[21][22]

Since its independence in 1991, Uzbekistan has been working with the government of the United States to dismantle and decontaminate the sites where the Novichok agents and other chemical weapons were tested and developed.[19][20] Between 1999[23] and 2002 the United States Department of Defense dismantled the major research and testing site for Novichok at the Chemical Research Institute in Nukus, under a $6 million Cooperative Threat Reduction program.[24][25]

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a British chemical weapons expert and former commanding officer of the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiation and Nuclear Regiment and its NATO equivalent, "dismissed" suggestions that Novichok agents could be found in other places in the former Soviet Union such as Uzbekistan and has asserted that Novichok agents were only produced at Shikhany in Saratov Oblast, Russia.[26] Mirzayanov also says that it was at Shikhany, in 1973, that Novichok was first produced by scientist Pyotr Petrovich Kirpichev; Kirpichev was joined on the project by Vladimir Uglev in 1975. According to Mirzayanov, while production took place in Shikhany, the weapon was tested at Nukus between 1986–1989.[27]

Description of Novichok agents

The first description of these agents was provided by Mirzayanov.[15] Dispersed in an ultra-fine powder instead of a gas or a vapor, they have unique qualities. A binary agent was then created that would mimic the same properties but would either be manufactured using materials legal under the CWT[17] or be undetectable by treaty regime inspections.[20] The most potent compounds from this family, Novichok-5 and Novichok-7, are supposedly around five to eight times more potent than VX.[32] The "Novichok" designation refers to the binary form of the agent, with the final compound being referred to by its code number (e.g. A-232). The first Novichok series compound was in fact the binary form of a known V-series nerve agent, VR (nerve agent), while the later Novichok agents are the binary forms of compounds such as A-232.[33]

Mirzayanov gives somewhat different structures for Novichok agents in his autobiography to those which have been identified by Western experts. He makes clear that a large number of compounds were made, and many of the less potent derivatives were reported in the open literature as new organophosphate insecticides so that the secret chemical weapons program could be disguised as legitimate pesticide research.

The agents are reportedly capable of being delivered as a liquid, aerosol or gas via a variety of systems, including artillery shells, bombs, missiles and spraying devices.[19]

Chemistry
A wide range of potential structures have been reported. These all feature the classical organophosphorus core (sometimes with the P=O replaced with P=S or P=Se), which is most commonly depicted as being a phosphoramidate or phosphonate, usually fluorinated (c.f. monofluorophosphate). The organic groups are subject to more variety; however, a common substituent is phosgene oxime or analogues thereof. This is a potent chemical weapon in its own right, specifically as a nettle agent, and would be expected to increase the harm done by the Novichok agent. Many claimed structures from this group also contain cross-linking agent motifs which may covalently bind to the acetylcholinesterase active site in several places, perhaps explaining the rapid denaturing of the enzyme that is claimed to be characteristic of the Novichok agents.

Effects

As nerve agents, the Novichok agents belong to the class of organophosphate acetylcholinesterase inhibitors. These chemical compounds inhibit the enzyme acetylcholinesterase, preventing the normal breakdown of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine. Acetylcholine concentrations then increase at neuromuscular junctions to cause involuntary contraction of all muscles. This then leads to respiratory and cardiac arrest (as the victim's heart and diaphragm muscles no longer function normally) and finally death from heart failure or suffocation as copious fluid secretions fill the victim's lungs.[34]

The use of a fast-acting peripheral anticholinergic drug such as atropine can block the receptors where acetylcholine acts to prevent poisoning (as in the treatment for poisoning by other acetylcholinesterase inhibitors). Atropine, however, is difficult to administer safely, because its effective dose for nerve agent poisoning is close to the dose at which patients suffer severe side effects such as changes in heart rate and thickening of the bronchial secretions which fill the lungs of someone suffering nerve agent poisoning, so that suctioning of these secretions and other advanced life support techniques may be necessary in addition to administration of atropine to treat nerve agent poisoning.[34]

In the treatment of nerve agent poisoning, atropine is most often administered along with pralidoxime, which reactivates acetylcholinesterase which has been inactivated by phosphorylation by an organophosphorus nerve agent and relieves the respiratory muscle paralysis caused by some nerve agents. Pralidoxime is not effective in reactivating acetylcholinesterase inhibited by some older nerve agents such as soman[34] or the Novichok nerve agents, described in the literature as being up to 8 times more toxic than nerve agent VX.[35]

The agents may cause lasting nerve damage, resulting in permanent disablement of victims, according to Russian scientists.[36] Their effect on humans was demonstrated by the accidental exposure of Andrei Zheleznyakov, one of the scientists involved in their development, to the residue of an unspecified Novichok agent while working in a Moscow laboratory in May 1987. He was critically injured and took ten days to recover consciousness after the incident. He lost the ability to walk and was treated at a secret clinic in Leningrad for three months afterwards. The agent caused permanent harm, with effects that included "chronic weakness in his arms, a toxic hepatitis that gave rise to cirrhosis of the liver, epilepsy, spells of severe depression, and an inability to read or concentrate that left him totally disabled and unable to work." He never recovered and died in July 1992 after five years of deteriorating health.[37]

Use as a weapon

A Novichok agent was reportedly used in 1995 to poison Russian banker Ivan Kivelidi, the head of the Russian Business Round Table, and Zara Ismailova, his secretary.[38][39][40] Vladimir Khutsishvili, a former business partner of the banker, was subsequently convicted for the killings.[38][41][42] The murder became "one of the first in the series of poisonings organized by Russia's security services", according to Yuri Felshtinsky and Vladimir Pribylovsky. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs analyzed the substance and announced that it was a phosphorus-based nerve agent "whose formula was strictly classified".[43] According to Nesterov, the administrative head of Shikhany, he did not know of "a single case of such poison being sold illegally" and noted that the poison "is used by professional spies".[44]

UK attack

Main article: Poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal
On 12 March 2018, the UK government stated that a Novichok agent had been used in an attack in the English city of Salisbury on 4 March 2018 in an attempt to kill former GRU officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia.[45] British Prime Minister Theresa May said in Parliament: "Either this was a direct action by the Russian state against our country, or the Russian government lost control of its potentially catastrophically damaging nerve agent and allowed it to get into the hands of others."[45] On 14 March 2018, the UK expelled 23 Russian diplomats after the Russian government refused to meet the UK's deadline of midnight on 13 March 2018 to give an explanation for the use of the weapon.[46].

After the attack, 21 members of the emergency services and public were checked for possible exposure, and three were hospitalized. As of 12 March, one police officer remained in hospital.[45] Five hundred members of the public were advised to decontaminate their possessions to prevent possible long-term exposure, and 180 members of the military and 18 vehicles were deployed to assist with decontamination at multiple locations in and around Salisbury. The exact location of the attack has not been released.[45][47][48] Addressing the United Nations security council, Vassily Nebenzia, the Russian envoy to the UN, responded to the British allegations by denying that Russia had ever produced or researched the agents, stating: "No scientific research or development under the title novichok were carried out."[8]

Daniel Gerstein, a former senior official at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, said it was possible that Novichok nerve agents had been used before in Britain to assassinate Kremlin targets, but had not been detected: "It's entirely likely that we have seen someone expire from this and not realized it. We realized in this case because they were found unresponsive on a park bench. Had it been a higher dose, maybe they would have died and we would have thought it was natural causes."[49]
コメント    この記事についてブログを書く
  • X
  • Facebookでシェアする
  • はてなブックマークに追加する
  • LINEでシェアする
« 自殺幇助か殺人か | トップ | 連動する世界 ロシアが優位に... »
最新の画像もっと見る

コメントを投稿

ブログ作成者から承認されるまでコメントは反映されません。