The following is from the column by E. Lutwak, which appears at the beginning of the following issue of the monthly magazine Hanada.
Pelosi's Visit Reveals China's "Reality"
The Pelosi visit to Taiwan is a practical and educational example of strategy.
First, it revealed that American newspaper columnists and "China experts" at think tanks and universities have no idea how to decipher China's behavior.
They are all "Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is dangerous!" and, as a result, played a role in amplifying the "Chinese threat.
However, the threat that China propagates is that it can make others believe it can escalate the situation by moving its military forces.
This threat is a far cry from the "reality" of the real world.
What is the "reality," then?
Suppose China starts a war like Russia and is subjected to the same level of economic sanctions from the G7 within 24 hours. In that case, the flow of soybeans, corn, and other foodstuffs imported large quantities from the U.S. and Canada will stop in China.
Within three months of that moment, China would have to kill 75% of its domestically raised pigs, cattle, and chickens.
It is because they will run out of feed.
In other words, China is dependent on imports from abroad.
Therefore, the Chinese government, no matter who is at the top, cannot take the option of "starting a war" as Putin has done.
The reason is that only two months after the War began, they had to return to the simple diet of the impoverished Mao era.
In fact, China is now unintentionally "experimenting" with returning to such a state.
The Shanghai lockdown is a case in point.
At this time, vendors' refrigerators were not functioning, which halted the distribution of meat and dairy products to millions of people.
The cry went up, "We're going to starve!" was the cry that went up. But, when one understands these trends, it becomes clear that Xi Jinping has made a big mistake.
Hawkish Chinese state-run media such as the Global Times had even incited a war if Pelosi visited Taiwan.
Weibo, a prominent social networking service, has 200 million users, more than Japan's total population. They were excited by Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, saying, "War!"
In reality, however, nothing happened.
Pelosi's visit to Taiwan ended without incident, and only afterward did the People's Liberation Army (PLA) begin military exercises.
It means China "shouts and shouts but does not do anything."
Russian social networking sites mock this as a "Chinese threat."
Xi Jinping has discouraged and angered many Chinese people with this one, and someone inside the CCP has noticed this.
They said, "Mr. Xi, you have let the situation escalate to this point, and yet you do nothing. Are you just going to muddle through with military exercises?"
Of course, China's fuss propaganda "worked" in the U.S. and Europe.
Pundits overreacted by saying, "It's a risk," and "Taiwan was almost blockaded because of Pelosi.
But what actually happened?
Few companies canceled their flights, but airline planes arrived in Taiwan almost as scheduled, despite the planned military exercises.
The people who really ran things knew that the Chinese threat was empty.
Two critical things can be seen here.
One is the overestimation that China can fight a serious war. The other is that "there is a tendency in the West to believe in China's power actively.
But realistically, China can do nothing.
Instead, this is an opportunity.
The U.S. Congress can parachute her into Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.
And see how far China will panic over this one 82-year-old American woman.
You may ski in Tibet.
China is a dictatorship, but the people's voice is expressed on the Internet.
Specifically, it is Weibo, which I mentioned earlier.
And this social network is not suitable for Xi Jinping.
It is because even though he is hoping to get through the fall when the Communist Party Congress will be held in a politically wave-free state, the patriotic voices on the Internet are in a state of revolt against the weak-kneed Xi Jinping administration.
It could be used as a tool in the power struggle by those in the regime who are against him.
Xi Jinping, who has done nothing to retaliate, has damaged China's reputation as a result.
It would have been different if it had been Mao Zedong.
He would not hesitate to bomb Kinmen Island and Matsu Island if he felt licked, as evidenced by the bombardment of Kinmen Island and Matsu Island during the first and second Taiwan Strait crises.
However, Xi Jinping is not Hitler but Mussolini.
He talks big but does nothing in the end.
The Chinese government's much-hyped propaganda should not fool us.
It is an overreaction.
Pelosi's Visit Reveals China's "Reality"
The Pelosi visit to Taiwan is a practical and educational example of strategy.
First, it revealed that American newspaper columnists and "China experts" at think tanks and universities have no idea how to decipher China's behavior.
They are all "Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is dangerous!" and, as a result, played a role in amplifying the "Chinese threat.
However, the threat that China propagates is that it can make others believe it can escalate the situation by moving its military forces.
This threat is a far cry from the "reality" of the real world.
What is the "reality," then?
Suppose China starts a war like Russia and is subjected to the same level of economic sanctions from the G7 within 24 hours. In that case, the flow of soybeans, corn, and other foodstuffs imported large quantities from the U.S. and Canada will stop in China.
Within three months of that moment, China would have to kill 75% of its domestically raised pigs, cattle, and chickens.
It is because they will run out of feed.
In other words, China is dependent on imports from abroad.
Therefore, the Chinese government, no matter who is at the top, cannot take the option of "starting a war" as Putin has done.
The reason is that only two months after the War began, they had to return to the simple diet of the impoverished Mao era.
In fact, China is now unintentionally "experimenting" with returning to such a state.
The Shanghai lockdown is a case in point.
At this time, vendors' refrigerators were not functioning, which halted the distribution of meat and dairy products to millions of people.
The cry went up, "We're going to starve!" was the cry that went up. But, when one understands these trends, it becomes clear that Xi Jinping has made a big mistake.
Hawkish Chinese state-run media such as the Global Times had even incited a war if Pelosi visited Taiwan.
Weibo, a prominent social networking service, has 200 million users, more than Japan's total population. They were excited by Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, saying, "War!"
In reality, however, nothing happened.
Pelosi's visit to Taiwan ended without incident, and only afterward did the People's Liberation Army (PLA) begin military exercises.
It means China "shouts and shouts but does not do anything."
Russian social networking sites mock this as a "Chinese threat."
Xi Jinping has discouraged and angered many Chinese people with this one, and someone inside the CCP has noticed this.
They said, "Mr. Xi, you have let the situation escalate to this point, and yet you do nothing. Are you just going to muddle through with military exercises?"
Of course, China's fuss propaganda "worked" in the U.S. and Europe.
Pundits overreacted by saying, "It's a risk," and "Taiwan was almost blockaded because of Pelosi.
But what actually happened?
Few companies canceled their flights, but airline planes arrived in Taiwan almost as scheduled, despite the planned military exercises.
The people who really ran things knew that the Chinese threat was empty.
Two critical things can be seen here.
One is the overestimation that China can fight a serious war. The other is that "there is a tendency in the West to believe in China's power actively.
But realistically, China can do nothing.
Instead, this is an opportunity.
The U.S. Congress can parachute her into Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.
And see how far China will panic over this one 82-year-old American woman.
You may ski in Tibet.
China is a dictatorship, but the people's voice is expressed on the Internet.
Specifically, it is Weibo, which I mentioned earlier.
And this social network is not suitable for Xi Jinping.
It is because even though he is hoping to get through the fall when the Communist Party Congress will be held in a politically wave-free state, the patriotic voices on the Internet are in a state of revolt against the weak-kneed Xi Jinping administration.
It could be used as a tool in the power struggle by those in the regime who are against him.
Xi Jinping, who has done nothing to retaliate, has damaged China's reputation as a result.
It would have been different if it had been Mao Zedong.
He would not hesitate to bomb Kinmen Island and Matsu Island if he felt licked, as evidenced by the bombardment of Kinmen Island and Matsu Island during the first and second Taiwan Strait crises.
However, Xi Jinping is not Hitler but Mussolini.
He talks big but does nothing in the end.
The Chinese government's much-hyped propaganda should not fool us.
It is an overreaction.
