The following is from an article by Yoshihisa Komori on p. 30 of Themis, a monthly magazine specializing in subscriptions, which arrived at my home on the day of its release.
It is a must-read not only for Japanese citizens but also for people around the world.
The emphasis in the text other than the headline and notes below * are mine.
Against the nuclear weapons of China, Russia, and North Korea
The U.S. has begun to recognize "Japan's nuclear armament.
Japan should also show that it has the ability and will to retaliate with nuclear weapons against a nuclear attack on its own country.
China learned a lesson from Russia's intimidation.
In Washington, the capital of the United States, discussions about "nuclear weapons" are rapidly increasing.
By "nuclear," I mean, more precisely, attack, threat, and deterrence with nuclear weapons.
There are three reasons for this growing debate.
The first is Russian President Vladimir Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine; the second is the possibility that Chinese President Xi Jinping will follow Putin's example and threaten nuclear intimidation in an attack on Taiwan, and the third is the move by the North Korean regime of Kim Jong Un to develop atomic weapons.
All of these factors are linked to the critical issue of Japan's national security, particularly its response to nuclear threats.
First, President Putin's nuclear threat is reportedly intended to use small tactical nuclear weapons, the effectiveness of which is officially recognized by the Russian military, to regain ground and prevent Western support for Ukraine if the battle to invade Ukraine fails.
The Biden administration has failed to demonstrate a clear deterrence response to this threat.
For Putin's part, this threat has succeeded in preventing military intervention by the U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries and military measures such as a flight ban on Russian troops over Ukraine in advance.
It is precisely the point that China's Xi Jinping has been trying to make.
It was precisely the lesson that Chinese President Xi Jinping learned.
If China, like Russia, threatened in its military attack on Taiwan that if the U.S. were to intervene militarily, it might launch a nuclear attack on U.S. military bases in Japan or on the island of Guam, the U.S., fearing nuclear war, might stop its military action to rescue Taiwan.
Toshi Yoshihara, a Japanese-American scholar who is considered one of the nation's leading authorities on Chinese military studies, told the author in an interview, "If the U.S. or Japan intervene militarily in support of Taiwan at the time China decides or begins a military attack on Taiwan, the Chinese side may use tactical or battle area nuclear weapons, declaring It is becoming more and more likely that they will do so," he said.
Yoshihara, who grew up in Taiwan and is fluent in Chinese, was a U.S. Naval War College professor for many years.
He is now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), a central research institute in Washington.
He points out that China's tactical nuclear weapons are short-range missile-borne weapons with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers and medium-range battle area nuclear weapons with a range of 1,000 to 5,500 kilometers.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army possesses hundreds of both types of nuclear weapons.
*In the face of this reality, Japan, as a result of being ruled by the Asahi Shimbun until August 2014, has been chanting the "three non-nuclear principles" as if it were a kindergarten chorus. *
U.S.-China War Zone Nuclear Weapons are in Imbalance
According to Yoshihara, the most likely military strategy for China with a vital "lessons from Russia" orientation is to threaten to attack U.S. military bases in Japan or on Guam with war zone nuclear weapons at the beginning of a Taiwan emergency.
As a result, he said that if the U.S. hesitates to intervene militarily, China will achieve its objective.
Mr. Yoshihara also said, "In a world of nuclear deterrence, there is no such thing as a nuclear deterrent.
In nuclear deterrence, if one side moves to launch a nuclear strike in a theater of operations, the other side's deterrence will be effective through a retaliatory strike at the same level of atomic weapons in the theater of operations. However, the U.S. military today has almost no nuclear weapons of the same type and at the same level in the area where China's nuclear weapons could cause damage. Therefore, the nuclear posture of the U.S. and China is highly unbalanced at the battle zone level.
The U.S. has many strategic nuclear weapons capable of striking mainland China from the mainland. Still, the Chinese nuclear threat anticipated in a Taiwan contingency would be at the battle zone level and would not reach the U.S. mainland. So can the U.S. consider attacking China with strategic nuclear weapons to deter the Chinese atomic threat? Or can it show that it is prepared to launch a nuclear attack on China to protect Japan? It is the point that is unclear.
Mr. Yoshihara also emphasized that China's nuclear threat is a severe issue for Japan.
Japan may be unable to rely on the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence or nuclear umbrella.
He then emphasized the significance of the late Shinzo Abe's argument about the need for NATO-style "nuclear sharing" for Japan.
He recommended that Japan now have some degree of autonomy in nuclear deterrence rather than the total dependence on the U.S. that it has had for years.
In this regard, strengthening Japan's "nuclear deterrence capability" is even more compelling in light of North Korea's blatant "nuclear threats" against Japan.
A country's ultimate form of nuclear deterrence would possess its nuclear capability.
A country that wants to use nuclear weapons to threaten another country and force it to comply with specific demands will be unable to do so if that other country also possesses its atomic capability and demonstrates the ability and willingness to retaliate with nuclear weapons should a nuclear attack be launched against the White Country.
Threats will not work either.
It is the reality of nuclear deterrence.
It is clear that North Korea will change its attitude if Japan possesses a nuclear capability that can completely destroy the core of Pyongyang.
The Debate Pushes the U.S. Government for Japanese Nuclear Weapons
So, how is the possibility of a nuclear-armed Japan being judged in the United States today?
The official policy of the U.S. government, following the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), is to maintain the principle that the number of nuclear weapon states should not increase beyond the current level.
In the unofficial realm, however, some argue that Japan is a reliable ally of the United States and that since the nuclear threat from neighboring countries has become so pronounced, possessing an independent nuclear force should be acceptable.
Although he is in the minority, Charles Krauthammer, a prominent conservative political commentator, recently proudly stated that "the time has come for the U.S. government to encourage Japan to possess nuclear weapons."
Of note in this regard is a recent academic article arguing that the time has come for the U.S. government to encourage Japan and South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons.
The article, titled "The Right Time and Why Japan and South Korea Should Possess Nuclear Bombs," appeared in a recent issue of the National Interest, a traditional conservative monthly magazine in Washington, D.C. The author is Sung Hwan Choi, a veteran expert on the Korean Peninsula and East Asian security and a professor of political science at the University of Illinois.
Although born in Korea, Choi was educated as an American citizen from an early age, became an officer in the U.S. Army, and after retiring from the military, became a scholar and held teaching positions at the University of Georgia and the University of Missouri.
The purpose of the paper was as follows.
The paper's central thesis was: "With two hostile states in East Asia, China and North Korea, both building up their nuclear arsenals and raising their atomic threats, it is time for the U.S. to encourage both countries to possess nuclear weapons, entrusting part of its atomic deterrence responsibilities to its longtime allies, Japan and South Korea.
On top of that, Mr. Choi argued that the United States should first encourage Japan to arm itself with nuclear weapons out of Japan and South Korea.
The fact that the idea of Japan's nuclear armament, even though it is the opinion of a few private scholars, is now making a grand entrance into the American political arena can be taken as a sign of change in the U.S. as a whole.
