The following is from a unique feature on the conversation between Nobukatsu Kanehara, former deputy director general of the National Security Bureau, and Taishi Sugiyama, a senior fellow at the Cannon Institute for Global Studies, which opened the monthly magazine Sound Argument, released yesterday.
It is a must-read not only for the people of Japan but also for people around the world.
The developed nations of the world, not just Japan, should feel a pang of gloom about their folly to date.
The monthly magazine "Sound Argument" is full of authentic articles, including this one, and yet it costs only 950 yen (including tax).
This magazine also demonstrates that nothing is cheaper than books.
Every Japanese citizen who can read the printed word must go to the nearest bookstore to subscribe.
Because if you don't, you will be an ignoramus about Japan and the world.
The following is a continuation of "Security Vulnerabilities Created by Decarbonization Policies."
The emphasis in the text is mine, except for the headline.
Urban residents quickly starve in an emergency
Sugiyama
You are correct that energy is the foundation of a country, and if energy is cut off, food will quickly dry up.
Energy is used ten times more to produce one calorie of food.
Fertilizers and pesticides are also made from fossil fuels.
Of course, there is also logistics, refrigeration, etc., and it is said that about one-third of Japan's energy consumption is food-related.
The first thing that would happen if energy short-circuits were to occur would be starvation in the cities because goods could no longer be transported.
If the war drags on, as it did in Ukraine, agricultural machinery will not be able to operate.
Japan imports most of its fertilizers, and its stockpile is very limited.
Recently, there has been much talk about the "war-fighting capability" of the Self-Defense Forces. Still, Japan has no food, fertilizer, or energy, so we must think in terms of the war-fighting capability of the entire nation.
Kanehara
Fertilizer is included in the "specified critical commodities" in the Economic Security Promotion Law enacted last year.
Sugiyama
They are included, but only a few types and quantities are still available, so we have a lot of work to do.
Kanehara
To begin with, Japan is an island nation, so it is impossible to be self-sufficient in everything.
We can feed 120 million people because we are not only self-sufficient.
In the Edo period, when Japan was self-sufficient, there were 30 million people.
The sea lanes are the foundation of Japan's food and energy security, and if they are cut off, Japan will lose, and it won't be easy to do anything about it.
Sugiyama
Even so, it is essential not to create vulnerabilities if we show abundant reserves and will be fine for a year or so.
Kanehara
If we work that hard, the U.S. will crush the enemy navy.
Sugiyama
If the enemy thinks that they can win in a month.
Kanehara
If that happens, of course, they will launch an attack.
There is the concept of "escalation control," which means that they will not launch attacks where they can retaliate if they are attacked.
The debate on the Japanese Diet is interesting, and there is a lot of talk about how if you get down on your knees and apologize, they won't attack you.
If you get down on your knees and apologize, they may kick you to death.
Even on the issue of food self-sufficiency, the average age of farmers is now 68, and the population is aging.
We must seriously consider what to do about agriculture in this country.
Many agricultural countries, such as the Netherlands and New Zealand, are being reborn.
Japan's agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports exceeded 1 trillion-yen last year.
We should be able to do more.
Agricultural cooperatives have supported Japan's agriculture so far, but they have almost become banks when you go to rural areas.
The same is true of the fishing industry, where the story goes like this, "If anything goes wrong, we will get money through fisheries compensation."
Japan's agriculture, forestry, and fisheries industries must fundamentally rethink their agricultural and fisheries policies, or they will never be able to improve their self-sufficiency ratio.
Sugiyama.
The food self-sufficiency rate is actually based on the use of an abundance of energy, and it is not based on the assumption of a contingency.
It needs to consider how to transport the food, what to do if there is no oil to run agricultural machinery during production, or what to do if there is no fertilizer supply.
Kanehara.
Simulations to prepare for contingencies will be necessary.
Regarding earthquakes, on September 1, the day of the Great Kanto Earthquake, we gathered all ministers, put them on emergency suits, and drilled for two hours straight.
Since this is done once a year in real life, there is a scenario prepared by the bureaucrats, and the cabinet members can understand the general flow of events.
However, the first thing that should come up in a contingency, starting with the evacuation of the people, is energy and food self-sufficiency, as Mr. Sugiyama mentioned, but this needs to be considered.
If we repeat the simulation, we will come up with points such as "we have to do this and that," but we have become reluctant even to touch the subject of contingency planning.
We need to do something about this.
Right now, energy and agriculture still need to be discussed, and the debate is still about how to protect the people.
We are still discussing how to escape from the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, but even if they flee to the mainland, there may need more food.
As Mr. Sugiyama said, we have to consider all these issues.
This article continues.
