October 06, 2020
The following is from an article by Ms. Yoshiko Sakurai in yesterday's Sankei Shimbun.
Ms. Yoshiko Sakurai is a national treasure, as defined by Saicho. And she is a supreme national treasure.
China's 'trap' waiting for Suga
The international community has shifted from being dominated by the United States to an era of cooperation among countries that share the same values.
The Indo-Pacific region is the main battleground for the international order's joint defense based on values to deter China's expansion.
Of these, the main focus is on Japan-China relations.
Japan's geopolitical position in the broad sweep of history will significantly impact U.S.-China relations, and Japan's actions will substantially impact U.S.-China relations.
Remember to underestimate Japan's role and refrain from shirk from the great responsibility that Japan must assume for the sake of the free world.
The United States and Europe need to help each other; the medium- to long-term threat is China.
China is a neighbor that should be cherished. Still, they are wiping out Uyghurs and other minorities with long-term, systematic oppression unprecedented in human history.
Being surrounded by enemies on all sides is suffering the consequences.
Even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was so pro-China that she said, "We must accept the challenge" of China's growing influence in violation of international law, has now begun to strengthen relations with Indo-Pacific countries.
Still, President Xi Jinping, unrepentant, is stepping up his aggressive offensive.
In a telephone conversation with the world's leaders, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga pushed his meeting with Xi to the back burner of Australia, the United States, and India, considering Japan's basic structure's relationship with the United States, Australia, and India. However, the content of the September 25 Japan-China summit meeting announced by the Chinese side shows the "trap" that awaits Kan.
China sees Japan as the "weakest link in the partnership" and is pursuing cutting it down.
China, isolated in the wake of the Tiananmen Square protests, used then-Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu as a cage to break the circle of sanctions. China likely intends to make Suga the second leader of Kaifu.
Chinese officials said in a telephone conversation that Xi had the following to say: "China is primarily concerned with the domestic general circulation.
China has been trying to promote the formation and implementation of a new development framework. The domestic and international double circulation are mutually stimulated, with the domestic grand circulation as the main factor. The two sides will safeguard a stable and smooth industrial chain and supply chain and a fair and open trade and investment environment and raise the quality and level of cooperation.
The "domestic/international double circulation" is an idea they call "dual circulation" (two supply chains).
In May this year, it announced amid the increasingly severe U.S. crackdown on Chinese telecommunications equipment giant Huawei, which has halted almost all semiconductors exports.
This tactic is aimed at smoothing out the supply chain at home and abroad.
The "China Manufacturing 2025" policy has stalled due to the U.S. offensive, foreign currency has fallen sharply, and capital outflows continue to be on the order of ¥20 trillion a year.
Capital and people will continue to flee from the Chinese Communist Party-controlled country, which cannot make people happy.
Mr. Xi is planning to use Japan to halt this trend.
It should be a proposal to Suga to build a more robust supply chain between Japan and China and directly reject separating and decoupling China.
Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Institute at Tsinghua University, said that the dual circulation policy is a medium- to long-term strategy that will run through the entire 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25).
At this month's Fifth Session of the Central Committee (5-China General Assembly), the CPC plans to set up a long-term plan for 35 years.
The two-phase cycle is based on China's economic strategy, and Xi may want to use it as a force to draw in Japan and support its ultra-long-range plan.
In response to the offer, contrary to Japan's national interests, the Chinese said, Prime Minister Suga responded.
"We hope to ensure the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia (RCEP) by the end of this year, accelerate negotiations for a CJK Free Trade Agreement (FTA), and jointly protect the stability of the industrial and supply chains in the region.
First, Japan convinced India to join the RCEP to prevent it from becoming a China-led framework.
It was an attempt to avoid a China-led system through Japan-India cooperation.
However, India, struggling with a trade deficit with China, withdrew from RCEP.
Will the RCEP without India lean toward a China-led system?
Is it in the national interest to postpone rather than sign the agreement by the end of the year?
Besides, isn't it in Japan's national interest that the decline and deceleration of the Japan-China supply chain be slowed down rather than advanced?
While I do not think that the Suga administration's current faintly visible policy toward China is all that is needed, it is undoubtedly true that Japan's strategy is difficult to see beyond this, and one has to be concerned.
China's policies toward Hong Kong, Uyghur, Mongolia, and Tibet are all unacceptable.
The oppression of Taiwan, the looting of the South China Sea, the invasion of the Sino-Indian border, and Bhutan's looting are not isolated incidents for Japan, which has the Senkaku Islands (Ishigaki City, Okinawa Prefecture) to contend with.
Global intellectual property theft continues to this day.
Within China, any criticism of Xi is dismissed at every turn.
The Han Chinese and the other ethnic groups will not survive unless they follow Xi's ideas.
The study of Xi Jinping's ideas has been made compulsory at universities, including the prestigious Tsinghua University and Peking University.
All academic and ideological freedoms are not at home to them.
It is no secret that the People's Liberation Army belongs to the Chinese Communist Party, not the Chinese government, and is under the direct control of Xi. Still, he has also placed the public security and police under the State Council's jurisdiction, the Central Military Commission, and his direct command.
His persistence in taking control of all the violent apparatus is tremendous.
The CCP controls the judiciary, the legislature, the executive, the military, and the police. All power is governed by the Chinese Communist Party, with the absolute power at the top of the chain, Mr. Xi, seizing all power.
It is a replay of Mao Zedong's politics.
There is probably no room for Japan to accept this contribution to the dual currency cycle that Xi is demanding.
At this juncture, a meeting of Japan's foreign ministers, the United States, Australia, and India will be held in Tokyo on August 6.
When the United States political situation is difficult to predict, Japan's best diplomacy to China is to strengthen the cooperation between Japan, the United States, Australia, and India.
Undoubtedly, China is an important neighbor, but human society is now in the midst of a historical value battle.
We must remember that fact by any means.
Japan should recognize this point, and under the grand strategy, Japan should be the most potent driving force in Japan, the United States, Australia, and India, without wavering.
