2021/3/16
The following is from Masahiro Miyazaki and Tetsuya Watanabe's book, Civil War or Communist Revolution! The Coming American Nightmare: The Choice,"
This book is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but for people worldwide.
Japanese citizens should head to their nearest bookstore to subscribe.
I will let the rest of the world know as much as possible.
Will "Apple Shots" Transform EV?
Miyazaki
The problem is that some people believe the era of electric vehicles is coming.
Tesla's market capitalization is $700 billion (about 72 trillion yen), three times that of Toyota, about 24 trillion yen.
Watanabe
Apple has also announced that it will outsource the manufacture of electric vehicles (EVs) equipped with self-driving technology to an outside company, aiming to build a business model similar to that of smartphones.
Miyazaki
Apple and Baidu have announced their plans to enter the EV market, and the media is calling it "Apple shock.
Apple's EVs are produced under license, and the company is negotiating with BYD (BYD of China), Hyundai Motor Company, and others.
Also, it is said that they are negotiating with Hon Hai Precision Industry for music distribution, etc.
Watanabe.
Apple is a GAFA company that is relatively close to manufacturing.
Even if you call it Apple Car, it doesn't make cars; it only licenses them.
So, just like with smartphones, Apple provides the software.
Miyazaki.
It's a business model like Pierre Cardin.
In other words, that would be a business model of lending a brand.
However, since Apple has the car software, the strategy is to let car makers make the cars.
Apple and Baidu, a search engine that should have nothing to do with manufacturing, have partnered with Geely Automobile, a major auto manufacturer, and are rushing to establish a new company.
Geely acquired Volvo and subsequently invested in Malaysia's Proton, a national car manufacturer. The company has shown an ambitious attitude toward automobiles.
Nearly 2 million EVs were produced in 2020, expected to exceed 10 million by 2027.
Accordingly, the United Kingdom will stop selling new gasoline-powered cars in 2030, China will stop selling new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035, and France will stop selling gasoline-powered cars in 2040.
As I mentioned earlier, GM has been said to be the most indifferent to EVs, but it has suddenly changed its policy and declared that it will introduce 30 types of EVs by 2025.
Thus, EVs are attracting speculative funds with a roar.
However, what I have been thinking about in the news reports is that mass production of EVs is good, but what about the electricity to power them?
Electric vehicles require twice the amount of energy that is currently available.
As I have said, doubling the current electricity consumption is the biggest Achilles' heel.
From that perspective, it is tough to imagine EVs becoming mainstream.
Watanabe.
The president of Toyota is right.
Miyazaki.
So what about electricity?
The problem remains unresolved.
Watanabe
And yet, the trend toward decarbonization has not stopped.
The contradictory structure of decarbonization relies on nuclear power
Miyazaki
Mitsui & Co., which has developed thermal power generation projects in five countries overseas, has announced its withdrawal from the market.
Mitsubishi Corporation, Marubeni Corporation, Itochu Corporation, Sumitomo Corporation, and others have been developing coal-fired power plant projects, but coal is now considered obsolete.
In addition to coal, thermal power plants burn heavy oil, which is the main source of electricity in Japan.
After all, nuclear power plants all over Japan remain shut down due to the Fukushima nuclear accident.
For the past ten years, Japan has miraculously maintained its electricity supply by switching to wind and solar panels in addition to hydroelectric and thermal power.
But no one thanks the power companies.
EVs are useless without electricity.
Therefore, it is evident that more than a stable supply of electricity will be needed even if wind, solar, and geothermal power are added to the existing hydroelectric and thermal energy.
Hiroaki Nakanishi, chairman of Keidanren, has stated clearly that "the only way to decarbonize the economy is to utilize nuclear power," he is probably right.
With the restart of nuclear power plants, conventional economic development is also possible.
For some reason, the media does not convey these critical basic requirements.
It is a mystery.
Watanabe
In the case of China, they have said that they will build more than 100 nuclear power plants. ......
Another problem with electric vehicles is that they cannot store electricity.
The characteristics of electricity make it difficult to store electricity.
The most efficient storage method is lift power generation, which is still said to be around 38%.
Lifting power is a very primitive method of generating electricity.
It involves pumping water upward and then unloading it from a pond above when necessary, generating electricity when the water is unloaded.
There is no way to conserve energy beyond that primitive method of power generation.
That is the biggest drawback of electric power.
Miyazaki.
In the end, nuclear power is the only option.
However, only four nuclear power plants are operating in Japan even though there are about 50 plants in terms of facilities.
Watanabe
Simply put, nuclear power is the only way to reduce CO2 emissions.
The good and bad thing about nuclear power is that it is a base power source, so once it starts up, it can maintain the same output for a long time.
Therefore, about 50% of the output is maintained by nuclear power plants, and what is not enough is compensated for by other sources.
For example, the basic structure of thermal power generation is that it generates power when a fire is lit and does not generate power when the fire is turned off, so the power output is adjusted accordingly.
When power consumption increases sharply in summer or winter, the shortfall is made up by pumping power generation.
Now that this structure has collapsed, we are supplementing our base power supply with thermal power, and crazy things are happening. The blackout in Hokkaido after the September 2018 earthquake would not have happened if the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant had been operating.
Miyazaki.
The power companies are doing an excellent job.
But no one is grateful.
I saw the movie "Fukushuima50" written by Mr. Ryusho Kadota, and TEPCO is doing an excellent job.
Watanabe
Even now, energy is tight nationwide, with only a single-digit surplus.
It is also the result of the electricity supply sharing system, which supplies power from other electric power companies to other regional electric power companies.
Moreover, according to the Organization for Promotion of Electric Power Operations (a regional organization), electricity demand in January 2020 will increase by 8% year-on-year in a cold snap, forcing further tightness in supply and demand.
In the past, due to the history of Japan around the time of the Meiji Restoration, eastern and western Japan had different Hertz frequencies (Hz), which made it difficult for the two regions to share power, but now that the substation facilities in Nagano have been expanded to create an environment that facilitates the sharing of power, the situation is somehow being managed.
Miyazaki
When you ride a train, the Maibara changes between DC and AC.
So the train stops running for about 10 seconds, and the interior goes completely dark.
In the case of the Hokuriku Shinkansen, it is Omachi, and they change it there.
Watanabe
After the March 11 earthquake, there was a lot of talk about unifying frequencies, but in the end, nothing was done about it.
Miyazaki
For example, it was unusable when my daughter said she would take the microwave oven she had been using in Tokyo to Tottori, where she would marry.
So She had to buy a new one.
Watanabe
Aftermath of the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, there was talk for a moment about unifying the situation. Still, many people could not replace their existing equipment when we tried to do that.
So, how are we going to deal with the replacement procedures?
If we were to change all the measures for a wide area at once, for example, from what date and time, there would be problems such as equipment stoppages in various places, etc., and the project would eventually be abandoned.
Especially since the Democratic Party was in power at the time, there was no proper policy discussion, and it somehow disappeared without clarity.
Only one thing moved forward: power sharing.
Miyazaki
I still think that hybrids will become the mainstream in terms of cars.
Watanabe
Yes, according to the law of conservation of energy, hybrids, and hydrogen batteries are more efficient.
They generate electricity and can be used as is.
In the case of hybrids, gasoline is conserved energy, so it is used only when needed, and excess energy is stored and used in EVs.
Hydrogen batteries generate electricity from hydrogen and convert it directly into energy, so the energy loss is nearly zero.
In contrast, rechargeable batteries have a huge energy loss, so they are by no means internationally competitive in terms of efficiency.
However, as I mentioned earlier, environmental factors, such as high heat and extremely low temperatures, can affect the performance of parts, and some can be used in emergencies, while others cannot.
However, if there is one good thing about EVs, it is that they can be used as a power source during a power outage.
We learned this during the earthquake.
At best, it can only be a mix, and there is a limit to that. This is just a question of when it will peak out.
If we really want to go carbon-free, the only physical option is to restart nuclear power plants.
Miyazaki.
Even the Japan Business Federation, which always talks nonsense about China and says that business with China must be valued, says that "nuclear power is the only option" when it comes to electricity.
This article continues.
2024/7/8 in Akashi
