The following is from an article by Hiroshi Yuasa that appeared in today's Sankei Shimbun titled Never give a "strategic opportunity" again.
He is also one of the best reporters working today.
The emphasis in the text, except for the headline, is mine.
The U.S. Biden administration's strategic goal of "shifting the focus of U.S. policy toward China" has been sacrificed by an eye-bomber in a rush to get out of Afghanistan at the last minute.
It is a mess with touched it on a sore spot that "unconditional and complete withdrawal" from Afghanistan after the deadline until the end of August.
Setting a deadline will be judged as "no intention to counterattack" and will trigger the use of force.
The "elephant," a vast military force, could not trample down the "ant," an asymmetric power.
However, in response to its allies, the giant elephant's nose is turning to the thinned Indo-Pacific.
It is to shift the focus from the war on terrorism to the incredible power competition on the "Asian front."
Flexible Alliance and Strong Military Alliance
In early September, the U.S. Navy's carrier strike group, led by the USS Carl Vinson, equipped with F35C stealth fighter jets, entered the South China Sea.
The purpose was to fill the vacuum in the Indo-Pacific without the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, which was dispatched to the Middle East in preparation for the Afghan uprising and other unforeseen events.
In addition, the U.S., U.K., and Australia inaugurated a security framework to counter China's growing influence at an online summit held on March 15.
The U.S. and Britain will provide Australia with the technology and capability to deploy nuclear submarines as a first step.
As a framework for security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, the Quad, a strategic security dialogue among the four powers of Japan, the United States, Australia, and India, already exists.
While the Quad is a "soft alliance" (flexible alliance) that extends beyond the four countries, AUKUS is a "hard alliance" (strong military alliance) centered on military cooperation.
The deterrence against China is functioning effectively, as the People's Daily-affiliated Global Times reacted to Carl Vinson's arrival in the South China Sea by calling it a "provocative deployment.
Also, the Chinese embassy in the U.S. spouted the usual complaint that AUKUS "they should get out of their prejudices about Cold War thinking and ideology."
If the withdrawal from Afghanistan has undermined the prestige of the United States, the Biden administration must take concrete action to "return to Asia" to rebuild it.
It must concentrate its diplomatic and security assets on the "Asian front" and strategically deter China.
With these symbolic actions, has the Biden administration gone head to head with China?
"Biden's Strategy to Deter China: Objective Remains Unchanged
In his August speech on the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, President Biden said, "The important thing to understand is that the world is changing," and declared, "We are entering a severe competition with China."
The tactical failure of the withdrawal from Afghanistan will be minimally painful if the strategic objective of "deterring China" remains unshaken.
Already in mid-August, when the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban had taken control of Kabul, 25,000 U.S. Marines, together with the U.S. Navy, conducted military exercises designed to recapture islands in the Western Pacific.
In this area, an aircraft carrier strike group, with the Royal Navy's state-of-the-art aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth at its core, has been expeditionary to the Western Pacific. The four countries of Japan, the United States, Britain, and Australia are participating in the "largest joint military exercise since the end of the Cold War.
China's Foreign Ministry sarcastically referred to the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan as the "Saigon moment," reminding us of the nightmare of the Vietnam War.
As long as the United States is cynical about abandoning Taiwan, the Biden administration must make clear the difference between Afghanistan, the stage of the war on terror, and Taiwan, the front line of the great power competition.
In an op-ed for a U.S. newspaper, John Bolton, a former presidential aide in the Trump administration, criticized the failure of the Afghan withdrawal but recommended that the U.S. secure a policy advantage as "a driver for putting together deeper conceptual and strategic thinking.
Bolton makes it clear that to eliminate ambiguity in the U.S. pledge to defend Taiwan, "station troops there."
To ensure this, he stressed the "need to increase the defense budget across the entire theater of operations. It will demonstrate the U.S. Navy's presence in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and the U.S. will be pressed to "increase deterrence and counter China's assertion of territorial rights."
Strategic clarity on Taiwan
U.S. policy toward China has maintained a "strategic ambiguity" in which it has not clarified its response to China's attack on Taiwan.
The reason behind this was to avoid provoking China and to prevent Taiwan from declaring its independence.
However, Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, suggested that China rethink its dangerously ineffective ambiguous strategy and come up with "strategic clarity" to avoid miscalculation by an overconfident China.
What China dislikes most is that the U.S. is building a Chinese encirclement by its allies and partners.
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has finally given President Biden a free hand to "rebalance Asia.
The core of this effort is the "Quad," a power multiplier consisting of Japan, the United States, Australia, and India, which will hold a summit meeting in Washington on April 24.
The Biden administration needed to show a shift in its stance toward China as soon as possible, even if Prime Minister Yoshihide Kan had already decided to step down.
As long as the Xi Jinping administration does not stop its blatant pressure diplomacy on neighboring countries, it should expand the framework beyond the four countries and explore the path to a "soft alliance.
A "quad plus" collective defense system that includes Vietnam, Britain, France, the Netherlands, and Taiwan could be considered.
When former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe first proposed the Quad, China ignored the proposal. When the number of participating countries became clear, it plotted to divide the group, and when that became difficult, it denounced the idea vehemently.
Now, it fears that the Quad will spread to Southeast Asia.
When Japanese and U.S. officials visited Southeast Asia, Wang Yi, China's State Councilor and Foreign Minister, made a quick tour of Asia and raised the tone of his condemnation of the Quad, calling it an attempt to create an Indo-Pacific version of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
The purpose of this was to discourage South China Sea littoral states, which dislike the military coloration of the Quad, from joining.
Most importantly, the U.S. should never again give China a "strategic opportunity."
On that day, 20 years ago, the 9/11 terrorist attacks forced the Bush administration to shelve the "great power competition" and turn to an "asymmetrical war" against the international terrorist organization Al-Qaeda.
It is crucial to keep in mind that if the Biden administration loses its footing in the Middle East and Central Asia, it will be the Xi Jinping administration that will gloat.