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EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION METHOD AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION DEVICE
Title of Invention: Earthquake forecasting method and apparatus Applicant: 508004111
Patent Number: P4295337 Vasin Evgeny
Date ofApplication: December 28,2007 Applicant:508003505
ApplicationNumber:P2007-339315 Eiichi Motoya
Date of Publication: JuJy 23,20A9 Inventor: Vasin Evgeny
Abstract and Main Claims of Patent to Offer
Patent number : P 429 5337
Abstract
This invention relates to the method and system in which the electric voltage appearing in a liquid
by a forerunning electromagnetic wave prior to an emthquake is measured by means of the specially
developed apparatus and then analyzed according to the specially derived equation supported by the
statistical data so that the result of this analysis can forecast the time of occurrence of an earthquake
prior to its taking place.
Concrete method
O fa*rquate forecasting apparatus
AsilverpinelectrodewithadiameterofO.Tmmto l.SmmwithanintervalofO.lmmisthecoreof
a rod type sensor, which is surrounded by three layers of insulation, an aluminum cylinder-shaped
electrode and insulating extemal cover. The silver electrode as well as the aluminum one are
connected to a positive terminal and a negative one of a voltmeter, respectively.
Twelve sensors possessing silver elecfiodes, the diameters of which are different by 0.1mm
between each, are connected to a voltmeter. Those sensors are immersed into an electrically
conductive liquid and the electric voltage between two electrodes of each sensor is measured.
ln this earthquake forecasting apparah)s, the change of ion drift velacity in the liquid which is
generated by the presence of electromagpetic waves, a forerunner to the outbreak of an earthquake,
can be measured as electric voltage.
@ farttrquate forecasting method
The elecfic voltage is measured every four hours in each of the twelve sensors of this apparatus.
Then the presence of the variation of six continuously measured data having the mode of change as
increase-decrease-further decrease-plateau-decrease- increase in any sensor is searched. The case of
the opposite polarity can be included, too.
Then the value of M is calculated by substituting the maximum value of measured voltage within
the above mentioned voltage range (max.) and also the minimum value (min.) into the equation of M : ln (rBa4-ndrr.)2 + max.i min. The case in which the value of M exceeds 4, in any sensoq is the
object of an earthquake to be forecasted accordins to this method.
@ Prediction ofthe time of occurrence of an earthquake
If this is the case, add the measured values of electric voltaee as to the twelve sensors at eqph of
the qix measurinq times corresponding te the ranee of -the above mentioned yariation -of
ilrcrease-decrease-firther . decrease-plateau-decrease-incrgqse including the case .of the gpposite
polmitv.
The time of occurrencg is forecasted accordiqg to ttris method to be the tine. coqesponding to the
maximum of these six sums plus 4014 hours (3644 hours later).
' The earthquake forecasting apparatus according to this invention is one which enables, even in the
operation of a single unit, the forecasting of an earthquake at a low cost and using a completely
novel principle. (It is recommended to install approximately three apparatuses in every circle of
400 km radius in order to enhance the position as well as time accuracy.)
' When the apparatuses based upon this principle are standardized atd installed in every
seismological observatory nationwide, earthquake prediction at a low cost will become possible,
providing people with safety and freeing them from anxiety and at the same time promising a
great economical effect.
Patent Claims
What is claimed is:
1. A method for earthquake forecasting, wherein each of the twelve rod type sensors, comprising;
a silver pin electrode of a diameter of 0.7mm to 1.8mm with an interval of 0.1mm between
each sensor, consjituting a core of a ro.d, this electrode being sonnected to a.positive terminal of a
voltmeter"
a surrounding insulator layer,
a cylinder aluminum electrode surrofrnding said insulator, this elestrgde beins, connectgd to a
negative terminal of the s4id voltmeter and
an extemal surrounding insulator cover,
is immersed into an electrically conductive liquid for measuring the electric voltagq between the two
electrodes usins the said yoltmeter every four hours in order to find i{ in any of the twelve sensors, a
case of the successive variation of measured values of voltage as increase-decrease-further decreaseplateau-
decrease-increase including the case of opposite polarity is found together with the fact that
the value of M calculated by substituting the maximum value of voltage (max.) within this voltage
variation range and the minimum one (min.) into the equation of M = ln (max.- min.)2 + max./min.
exceeds 4, predicting the occurrence of an earthquake.
2- T\e method of claim 1, wherein, in the case of the occurrence of voltage variation in at least one
sensor as increase-decrease-further decrease-plateau-decrease-increase and the value ofM calculated
according to the equation of M = ln (max. - min.)2 * max./min. exceeding 4, the values of electric
voltage as to the twelve sensors at the six measurement times corresponding to the said range of
voltage variation are summed, predicting the time of occurrence as being 36 to 44 hours later than
the time corresponding to the maximum of these six sums.
3. An apparatus for earthquake forecasting, wherein each of the twelve rod type sensors, comprising;
a silver pin electrode of a diameter of 0.7mm to 1.8mm with an interval of 0.1mm between
each sensor, constituting a core of a rod, this electrode being connected to a positive terminal of p
voltmeter,
a surrounding insulator layer,
a cylinder aluminum electode surrounding sai4 insulator" this electrode being connected to a
negative terminal of the said vollmeter and
an external surrounding insulator cover,
is immersed into an electrically conductive liquid for measuring the electric voltage between the two
electrodes using the said voluneter.
Relation between the patent nnd product
The following items are the objects to transfer.
' An apparatus for earthquake forecasting.
. A specially derived equation and its application expertise for earthquake forecasting.
. A method for predicting the time of occurrence of an earthquake based upon the technical expertise
to analyze measured data.
Perspective view of sensor
tAI
4
1 : Sensor
((now-how is required in its manufacturing.)
2 : Silver eleetrode
3 : Insulator
4 : Ahrminum electrode
5 : Insulating cover
Earthquake forecasting apparatus comprising sen$ors and avoltmeter
I2
r: <l
llll lr';, :, 1111 t 111
1 : Sensors (twelve)
Rod type ones with a core of silver
electrode with diameters of 0,7mm to
1.8mm with an interval of 0.1mm between
each.
One set consists of twelve sensors.
6 : Voltrneter
7 : Vessel (water)
Equation for predicting earthquake occurring time using measured data
M = ln (max.* min.)2 + max./min.
Search for a case ofa value ofM greater than 4.
*' The measurements were performed 271 times during the period of May, 2005 to Sept., 2009,
among which the earthquake predicting waveforms- (Stream pulse) were observed 143 times. Among
them further. the number of actual earthquake occurrences was 128" while that of unobservqd ones
was 15, which means that the correct forecastine ratio is sumrisinely as high as 89.5%
Covered Range of Patent
" The patent P4295337 for predicting an earthquake in a week "
l. Manufacturing of apparatus hardware
The apparatus which comprises simply silver and aluminum electrodes, connecting cables and a
voltmeter can be handled even by small scale enterprises. The manufacturing of silver electrodes (+)
and aluminum ones (-) requires a certain level of technology.
2. Development of software for automatic data processing systems
Development of an automatic data processing system incorporating a minicomputer which deals
with the four items of "handling of time axis, calculation of electric voltage according to earthquake
forecasting equation, preparation of earthquake predicting waveform, sending of earthquake
forecasting information" is required to process the data which comes basically from the ion drift in
liquid.
The development of this automatic system to deal with the data collection and production of the
above four items requires the participation of software companies.
3. Construction of network systems
In the operation of the above system, the collaboration with network cable companies is strongly
required. Similar to weather forecast, the purpose of earthquake forecasting including the
information for seismic center is to minimize the earthquake damage of lives and properties as much
as possible, no matter if the service is charged or not.
Especially for obtaining seismic center information, a network system consisting of multilateral
installments of multiple apparatuses with the density of one appaftrtus per one circle of the radius of
l00km with the function of mutually sharing the seismic information obtained is necessary.
@xample : At least three apparatuses axe to be installed in a circle of the radius of 300km )
In the construction of such network systems, not only private companies but the administration
can participate. Intemet providers can also participate there.
4. Target for this system
Earthquake forecasting should be addressed to the general public as a weather forecast. Special
attention should be paid to atomic power plants, high speed railways (motor ways), medical
organizations, indemnity insurance companies, disaster prevention organizations, public buildings,
skyscrapers and many others.
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