The following is from an article by Kenichi Ogura, Director of the ITMOS Research Institute, which was published in the monthly magazine WiLL on 26th September in a three-column format starting on page 324.
It is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but also for people worldwide.
Japan's economic growth is only possible with nuclear power plants.
What is a stable, clean, and competitive power source?
Recovering the "lost 30 years"
Data centers and semiconductor businesses, essential in the A1 generation era, require a stable and large amount of electricity.
For example, the NRT12 Data Center, built in Inzai City, Chiba Prefecture, with 50% funding from Mitsubishi Corporation, has a total power receiving capacity of approximately 30,000 kW per facility.
Still, it is said that large data centers scheduled to be built in Japan will require several hundred thousand to a maximum of one million kW.
It is equivalent to the electricity required for the entire prefecture of Yamanashi.
As these facilities are built and electricity demand is expected to increase, and with the government's promotion of renewable energy as a primary source of power making it difficult to provide a stable and low-cost supply of electricity, it is only natural that the business opportunities to make up for the "lost 30 years" will have to be given to other countries.
If you think back, the reason that pushed Japan into the war was "oil shortages."
Before the war, Japan imported around 80% of its oil from the United States, and as a country with few natural resources, it has long been dependent on imports.
As a result, nuclear power plants were promoted in the post-war period.
However, following the Great East Japan Earthquake, the fact that Japan's energy self-sufficiency rate is around 10% and that it is almost entirely dependent on imports of fossil fuels from overseas has stayed the same.
Even now, 13 years after the Great East Japan Earthquake, only 12 of the 36 nuclear reactors (excluding the 24 decommissioned) that have been restarted in Japan (all PWRs) are currently in operation.
Most of the country's nuclear power plants are not operating. What about the rest of the world?
After the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, a sense of aversion to nuclear power plants spread, and countries like Germany began to phase out nuclear power.
However, with COP21 in 2015, decarbonization began to attract international attention, and nuclear power plants, which do not emit greenhouse gases, began to come back into the spotlight.
Then, the situation changed entirely with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
As a result of Western countries imposing economic sanctions on Russia, the global energy market, heavily dependent on Russian energy, was disrupted.
Europe, an opinion leader on global warming, hurriedly secured LNG and coal worldwide as if what it had been saying until then had been a lie, and energy prices soared.
According to the Japan Oil, Gas, and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC), the expansion of LNG imports in Europe is expected to reduce the world's LNG supply capacity in 2025-2026, and this could affect prices.
Against this background, the number of people in Germany who support the move away from nuclear power has fallen from around 60% to around 20%, and nuclear power plants, which were spared the effects of the sharp rise in energy prices, have once again come into the spotlight. At COP28 last year, nuclear power was re-evaluated as an energy source that can achieve energy security, decarbonization, and economic efficiency simultaneously, and 22 countries, including Japan, issued a joint declaration to "triple nuclear power generation capacity by 2050 compared to 2020".
The momentum for promoting nuclear power is increasing worldwide.
The Japanese economy, struggling with energy supply, is becoming increasingly fragile.
Unstable renewable energy
At the 55th General Resources and Energy Investigation Committee Basic Policy Subcommittee meeting held in May this year, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Ken Saito expressed a strong sense of crisis, saying, "Japan is now at the greatest crossroads in its post-war energy policy."
The background to this statement is the changing international energy situation, including the destabilization of the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East and the reality that it is becoming increasingly difficult to procure energy stably from overseas.
In addition, if a concrete path to achieving carbon neutrality cannot be mapped out and a stable supply of decarbonized power sources cannot be secured, international competitiveness will likely be adversely affected.
Furthermore, there is also the need to deal with the increase in demand for electricity from data centers and semiconductor businesses that will accompany the spread of generated AI.
The Sixth Basic Energy Plan targets increasing the share of nuclear power in the power supply mix to 20-22% by 2030.
To achieve this, it is assumed that in addition to the 12 reactors that have already restarted, the 5 reactors that have already been approved for installation and the 10 reactors currently under review will also be brought back into operation.
However, at the moment, the restart of these reactors is being delayed significantly.
For example, although preparations for the restart of Unit 7 at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station of the Tokyo Electric Power Company are complete, the restart has not progressed because local consent has not been obtained.
The nuclear power plants in Shimane and Onagawa aim to restart by the end of the year, but this has yet to be achieved.
Furthermore, the Tsuruga Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2 has been judged as not complying with the new regulatory standards, and its restart has yet to be approved, but there are questions about this assessment.
To raise the ratio of nuclear power to 20%, nearly 30 power plants will need to be operational, but if things continue as they are, it will be tough to achieve this goal.
The "nuclear fuel cycle" issue has also been raised, but the high cost of reprocessing plants should be considered an investment in long-term profits.
Reprocessing allows spent fuel to be reused as new fuel rather than disposed of as waste.
Data currently show that the cost of generating renewable energy is lower than that of nuclear power.
However, because renewable energy is dependent on nature, it is difficult to ensure a stable supply without backup from thermal power plants that use coal and fossil fuels.
As a result, it is not a power source that is competitive overall.
In Europe, while there is a lot of publicity about the progress in introducing offshore wind power, substantive decarbonization is progressing very slowly.
Japan must not be fooled by the propaganda that the EU is promoting decarbonization.
The only way to revive the Japanese economy."
Since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident and the subsequent full liberalization of the electricity market in 2012, the future uncertainty of electricity demand has reduced the predictability of investment in power sources, and the situation has continued where it is difficult for power companies to invest in the development of new power sources.
In response to this, a long-term decarbonized power source auction was launched last year as a power source investment support system, and bids have been successful.
However, under this system, the revenue is fixed for 20 years at the time of the bid, so additional costs due to factors such as rising material prices and interest rates cannot be recovered.
As a result, power companies cannot avoid risk, and it is still possible that the construction of new power sources will not progress.
As Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Saito has stated, Japan, which has stated that it will achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, is likely to continue to face a thorny path.
This is because, even with the difficulties involved in introducing decarbonized power sources to meet future increases in electricity demand, the only option is to make the most of existing power sources, including nuclear power.
Nuclear power, a semi-domestic energy source, could solve the various problems we currently face.
As a decarbonized power source, it is possible to reduce dependence on fossil fuels while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
At the same time, it is possible to achieve price stabilization of electricity by controlling the volatility of fuel prices. It can also contribute to energy security by improving energy self-sufficiency.
The GX Decarbonization Power Source Act was passed in May last year, and under the principle of "safety being the highest priority," the government, companies, and local governments will each take the initiative in promoting nuclear power.
Once again, the groundwork is being laid to make nuclear power a base power source for our country.
This year, when the 7th Basic Energy Plan and the review of the electricity system reform are being carried out at the same time, we should have a national debate on what kind of stable, clean, and competitive power source will support our country's industry and people's lives.
There are few options available to the Japanese people.
If any options are more attractive than nuclear power, they should be carefully considered and reflected in the 7th Basic Energy Plan.
However, as things stand now, Japan has no path other than nuclear power.
2024/10/6 in Umeda, Osaka
