The following is from Ms. Yoshiko Sakurai's serial column, released yesterday and marked the end of Weekly Shincho.
This article also proves that she is a national treasure, as defined by Saicho, the supreme national treasure.
It is a must-read not only for the people of Japan but also for people around the world.
The war between the U.S. and China will make Japan a battlefield.
This past January, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a leading U.S. zinc tank, released "The First Battle of the Next War: The Chinese Invasion of Taiwan," a series of 24 desk exercises conducted over the past two years.
It is a summary of 24 exercises conducted over two years.
The exercise was characterized by the fact that military personnel was responsible for the entire project.
Without the participation of civilian politicians, the forecast of China's invasion of Taiwan was based strictly on military factors.
Why did it take this form?
The results always remained ambiguous in the past multiple U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) desk exercises on the U.S.-China war.
The crucial information on the calibrations of military power was never made public.
It assumed that the reason for withholding information was that the results were unfavorable to the United States.
David Ochmanek, a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, is not afraid to say, "In the U.S.-China-Russia war, we are losing badly.
Former Undersecretary of Defense Michel Flournoy said, "If you look at the Pentagon's desk exercises, the current U.S. defense force development plan will not prevent a Chinese invasion in the future and force them to defeat us."
In March 2021, Air Force Lt. Gen. Clinton Hinote said, "For more than a decade, the U.S. Air Force's desk-based functional exercises have shown that the U.S. Air Force's remote strike capability has been weaker than the Chinese military. The pace of our defeat is accelerating," he warned.
He said that Pentagon exercises tend to be conducted with a long-term perspective, for example, the calibrations of U.S. and Chinese military power 20 years in the future.
Simply focusing on the long-term outlook rather than on the footing without disclosing adverse information will not produce an appropriate strategy.
In this sense, it is significant that CSIS eliminated political elements and conducted a desk exercise based on a military perspective.
The exercise was based on the scenario of China launching an offensive to land on Taiwan in 2026.
The exercises were conducted in five patterns: basic, pessimistic, optimistic, gloomy, and hopeless.
In conclusion, in all of them, China did not win.
By "unwinnable," I mean "China cannot land on and occupy Taiwan.
Attack on U.S. bases in Japan
The pattern of attacks conducted by China in all scenarios was the same.
First, bombing would inflict devastating blows on Taiwan's naval and air forces in the first few hours of the initial attack.
Chinese troops, supported by a powerful rocket force, would surround Taiwan, and tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers would cross the Taiwan Strait by mobilizing all their warships and civilian vessels.
The Chinese air force will attack Taiwanese troops defending landing sites on the coast from the air.
So far, China has the upper hand.
However, the situation soon collapses.
A fierce counterattack by the Taiwanese army prevented the Chinese troops from landing, and the Chinese soldiers could not invade the interior of Taiwan.
U.S. submarines, bombers, fighters, and attack aircraft, quickly deployed and supported by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, neutralized the Chinese land, sea, and air forces rapidly.
Chinese forces will attack U.S. and SDF bases in Japan and U.S. surface ships but will not gain the upper hand, and Taiwan's right to self-government will be protected.
There were three essential conditions for a U.S.-Japan-U.S.-Taiwan victory.
(1) Taiwan must hold out.
(2) The U.S. would use U.S. military bases in Japan for combat operations.
(3) The U.S. must be able to attack the Chinese fleet quickly and in large numbers from outside the Chinese defense circle.
Regarding (1).
China's blockade of Taiwan is extremely solid, both at sea and in the air, and the U.S. military cannot break through it.
In the 24 exercises, the U.S. military could not deliver support units, equipment, or ammunition to blockaded Taiwan.
In other words, Taiwan would have to fight the invasion with only the weapons and equipment possessed by the whites.
Unlike Ukraine, it could not receive support from other countries through ground routes.
In the true sense of the word, Taiwan must strengthen its forces.
Taiwan's artillery ammunition stockpiles will begin to run low within two months of the start of the battle, and its offensive capability will be cut in half.
In three months, artillery shells will be exhausted, and artillery units will have to become infantry units.
It is a lesson for Japan.
Regarding (2), Japan's resolve will be questioned.
The Japan-U.S. "2+2" meeting between the ministers of foreign and defense affairs began on the 12th of this month in Washington, followed by a summit meeting between Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Biden on the 13th.
The Wall Street Journal editorialized on the 12th that the Japan-U.S. summit was "the most significant diplomatic event of the year.
It welcomed the "awakening of Japan's national security" and said, "Japan is the linchpin.
Japan's increased defense spending was welcomed, as was "deepening cooperation between Japan and the United States for effective operation" of Japan's new counterattack capability.
Expectations of Japan are high, and for this reason, Japan itself must consider what is in its national interest.
China will undoubtedly attack U.S. military bases in Japan during its invasion of Taiwan.
The attack will probably occur sometime after the invasion begins when Japanese and U.S. fighter jets are assembled in support of Taiwan.
Chinese forces at that time could inflict heavy damage on both Japanese and U.S. air forces on the ground.
Destruction of fighter aircraft is most accessible when stationed on the ground.
Japan, a Land Destroyed
A Chinese military attack would draw Japan into the Taiwan contingency and become a battle between Japan and China.
In the exercises, the Chinese had an advantage if they bombed not only the U.S. bases but also the bases of the Self-Defense Forces than if they did not.
If they did, they would do so.
Japan will become the site of a war that no one wants, whether in Okinawa or elsewhere.
There is only one way to deal with this situation.
One way to deal with this situation is to demonstrate in a cooperative Japan-U.S. framework a counterattack strong enough to dissuade Chinese President Xi Jinping from launching an attack.
We need a strong enough military force and will to fight to make them give up the invasion.
(3) is a demand not only of Taiwan but also of the free camp, including Japan, but what is the thinking of the U.S. administration, the crucial U.S. Biden administration?
The CSIS exercise concluded that it was a victory for Taiwan, but the reality of the situation is still painful to read.
Japan and the U.S. will lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of military personnel.
The U.S. will lose its position as the world's most powerful nation for many years, and Taiwan will struggle to rebuild its economy after its land is destroyed.
The same will be valid for Japan, whose land will be destroyed.
On the other hand, the Chinese navy will collapse, its amphibious forces will be destroyed, and tens of thousands of soldiers will be taken, prisoner.
The survival of the Chinese Communist Party would also be affected.
Even so, the U.S. and China would try to avoid a nuclear war between the major powers using their own countries as the battlefield.
On the other hand, Japan and Taiwan would indeed become battlegrounds.
It is why avoiding war is so important.
That is why I emphasize this again.
We must have a strong enough force to change China's way of thinking and Xi Jinping's way of thinking, i.e., deterrence.
CSIS reports that in the event of a Taiwan contingency, China will also attack Japan.
That is the view of most experts, if not CSIS.
If this is the case, Japan should spend its military budget wisely and strengthen its capabilities.
One of the keys is submarines.
China is most opposed to quiet, world-class submarines.
We are now at a point where we must think about how to use military spending, the economy, and the nation's state, all on the premise of war.
I want to share the severity of this situation with all of Japan.
