The following is from Rui Abiru's regular column in today's Sankei Shimbun.
This article also proves he is one of the best reporters working today.
It is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but for people worldwide.
North Korea contingency that was a 60-50 possibility
It was at a reception for the second "Gathering to Inherit the Aspirations of Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe" held in Tokyo on April 7.
Katsutoshi Kono, former chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a speech and shared an episode from the North Korean crisis 2017 (Heisei 29).
In July of that year, Kono, who was visiting the U.S. to attend a symposium in the U.S., was suddenly summoned by U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Danford, whom he had not planned to meet, and told him.
The possibility of using military force against North Korea has increased. We are trying to locate Kim Jong-un, the chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea.
When Mr. Dunford explained this to Kono, he thought that "at some point, about sixty-five percent of the time, the U.S. and North Korea will open war with each other.
At the time, it is clear from the memoirs of U.S. government officials and others that the U.S. was considering everything from a "beheading operation" aimed at Kim personally to the use of nuclear weapons to attack a wide area.
Decision to Dissolve under Tense Conditions
In September of that year, when Kono was in the "most tense state in his 40 years in the Self-Defense Forces," Abe decided to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election.
The North conducted its sixth nuclear test the same month, and Kono had a hunch.
Mr. Abe gave two reasons for dissolving the House: to change the use of the consumption tax and to deal with North Korea, but I thought it would be a North Korea dissolution."
Kono's intuition was clear: "Mr. Abe cited two reasons for dissolving the lower House: to change the consumption tax and to deal with North Korea, but I thought he was going to dissolve the lower House over North Korea.
Mr. Kono mourned.
"Mr. Abe was a rare leader who could make decisions."
After returning from a visit to the U.S. where he met with President Trump, Abe told the author, "Kim is very timid. He explained to Mr. Trump that Mr. Kim was very timid and would never launch a preemptive strike himself. I said to Mr. Trump that he would never fire a missile in the direction of the U.S. territory of Guam. Even if the U.S. sends a B-52 strategic bomber, the North will not react. They only do part-scale provocations. On the other hand, the possibility has emerged that the U.S. will launch a preemptive strike next year."
He also made this point.
The North's missile crisis will continue, and the deeper the problem will become.
The situation had become tense.
In his speech at the UN General Assembly in September, Trump himself clearly stated, "If we are forced to defend ourselves, we will have no choice but to destroy North Korea.
Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis also warned that "it is possible to respond militarily to the North without putting Seoul (located 50 kilometers from the North-South Military Demarcation Line) in grave danger.
The Insensitive Media
Despite this extreme tension, the opposition parties and the media were insensitive and insensitive to the situation.
For example, the Asahi Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun editorialized, "'Moritomo/Kake cover-up' is a 'cover-up' for the government.
For example, the Asahi Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun editorialized, "It can't be helped if this is called a 'Moritomo/Kake cover-up' dissolution.
The Mainichi Shimbun editorialized, "The Diet is dissolving the Diet because they want to keep the allegations under wraps.
"I can't help but conclude that they are trying to 'hide the allegations'" (Asahi, September 20).
Ultimately, nothing came out on the Morikake issue that Mr. Abe had to hide; it was just an empty fuss.
The Northern Crisis was averted because the North wanted a U.S.-North Korea summit under solid pressure.
Still, the possibility of a contingency in the Far East region, whether in Japan, Taiwan, or South Korea, cannot be ruled out in the future.
I hope that the lack of a sense of crisis at that time will serve as a reminder and that international issues will be discussed in the LDP presidential election and the Rikken Democratic Party representative election scheduled for September.
(Editorial Writer and Political Affairs Editor)
July 8, 2024, in Akashi
