The following is from the book published on 3/31/13, Liberal Totalitarianism Will Destroy Japan.
It is a must-read not only for the people of Japan but also for people around the world.
p123~p137
Will China's Xi Jinping Administration Come to Taiwan?
Abiru
Chinese President Xi Jinping's decision to make his term as head of state indefinite in 2018 has already been decided by the Communist Party Central Committee, the highest leadership body of the Chinese Communist Party.
Previously, the term of state presidents was fixed at two terms of 10 years, and Xi was supposed to finish his term in 2023, but this could make him a lifetime head of state from now on.
At least a third term in office is a certainty, and the five-yearly Party Congress will be held this year, where it is likely that Xi Jinping will further seek to resurrect the party presidency, which Mao Zedong also had to take his place.
Although Xi Jinping is expected to issue a historical resolution in 2021, putting him on par with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, he does not have the track record to match Mao Zedong, the founding leader, or Deng Xiaoping, who brought about reform and opening up.
If this is the case, the only way for Xi Jinping to leave his mark on history is through the unification of Taiwan.
Therefore, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could happen, but it is hard to predict.
Takayama.
There will be Senkaku Islands.
China is fiddling around with Japan's Senkaku Islands and putting pressure on Taiwan partly because the current economic situation in Xi Jinping's China is getting considerably worse. Still, the problem now is that Uyghur, Tibet, Mongolia, and Manchuria, including Taiwan, ask, "Since when did China come to rule on its own? So China is making a fuss about the Taiwan issue.
China is making a fuss about the Taiwan issue to bluff that it will invade Taiwan and get the world's attention to shift to that side.
It seems to me that China is using Taiwan to prevent the debate from spilling over into "Why do Uyghur and East Turkistan belong to you, China?
Abiru
That may be so, but it seems inevitable that the only way for Xi Jinping to surpass Mao Zedong is to take Taiwan. It seems inevitable that he needs the achievement of Taiwan to suppress antipathy toward the fact that he is promoting purges and concentrating power domestically.
Takayama.
No, I don't know.
Do you think Xi Jinping's groundwork is solid enough to go that far?
Abiru
Even if Xi Jinping is trying to suppress speech, the restrictions on movies and tutoring schools, etc., which he is now doing, are the methods of a complete and unquestionable dictator, so he will inevitably need a commensurate track record with that.
Takayama
Until now, the Chinese people were nothing more than serfs. They have gotten into the habit of eating fried eggs in the morning.
In other words, once the people discovered luxury, it was more difficult to restrain them than it had been for Mao Zedong to do so.
So, suddenly they are doing conspicuous things, such as taking away the property of movie actresses and talking about "common prosperity" to make everyone rich.
That seems to be driven by pain.
If they really had the power to invade Taiwan, they would give the people more freedom to do as they please and sit back and do as they please. However, he is now clamping down on the people to the extent that it is becoming a hot topic.
Why do they fly planes to Taiwan, send ships to the Senkakus, and float many submarines south of Miyako Island?
Just like with Korea, that was just a demonstration.
Abiru
But I am not sure what Xi Jinping is reasoning, as Mr. Takayama just mentioned.
In the case of Hong Kong, he dared to do something sure to be resented and hated by the world, such as crushing human rights activists with the National Security Law.
That was not a demonstration but an actual act.
Takayama
One theory is that Xi Jinping has brain damage. It is said that when he goes off on a tangent with his abnormality, no one at the party can stop him.
Abiru
The power struggle in China is so fierce that I don't think he is in a normal state of mind.
Takayama
But if they try to take Taiwan by force, they will not get away with it.
That is precise because the Quad has come alive, Japan has taken steps to double its defense spending, and the situation is changing rapidly.
Abiru
But on the other hand, I think Xi Jinping is gaining confidence differently due to this Corona.
He may be troubled by the fact that Corona came out of Wuhan or that it is a human virus.
But while their own country was able to control it relatively well with its totalitarian system, western democracies, including the U.S., have not been able to do.
They are also increasingly convinced that they have the right approach and are more potent.
I feel that they are also deepening their belief that their way of doing things is better and stronger.
Takayama
Do you think they are going to do it?
Abiru
I think they will do it. However, even though Xi is crazy, he still has some rationality, so he will naturally make some decisions.
For example, there is a strong possibility that the U.S. military will withdraw from South Korea.
Even if they don't withdraw immediately, they will withdraw after a gradual downsizing. I think Xi will consider various things, such as the possibility of withdrawing the U.S. forces from South Korea only after that has progressed a little further.
North Korea, including Kim Jong-un, has historically disliked China, but it may depend on how they build up to aid and pride.
Takayama.
There is no way North Korea can develop various missile weapons on its own, including supersonic flying vehicles, so China and Russia are probably sending them.
Submarine-launched missiles are not possible without considerable technological capabilities.
Abiru
On the other hand, North Korea has stopped printing its own currency and has even run out of rations for its officials.
North Korea has always been a messy country, but looking at the moves of the Moon Jae-in administration in South Korea, it seems as if it is about to be absorbed by the North.
There was a South Korean presidential election this past March. If the leftist "United Democratic Party" candidate Ri Jae-myung had won the election, the country would probably have become a kind of federal system with the North.
A few years later, the Democratic Federal Republic of Korea would be born.
Takayama.
If the "United Democratic Party" had come to power, would southward expansion have been possible in a few years?
Abiru
I am talking about forming a coalition government without having to advance southward. The North would absorb the South on its own, and before you know it, the whole thing would be turned into the North.
Takayama
South Korea says it will build nuclear submarines and has developed a device to launch SLBMs from a submarine.
It would mean that the North's nuclear weapons would be placed on South Korean atomic submarines.
I heard something like this from a member of the Mindan a while ago.
Abiru
Moon Jae-in was obviously steadily following the steps that Kim Il Sung wrote about for the democratization of Korea and the Federation of Korea.
The "United Democratic Party of Korea" consensus is that they want the U.S. to withdraw.
Takayama.
I don't think the Korean public would agree with that. In fact, it was a close call, but South Korea did not let the leftists take power.
Abiru.
The people hardly think anything of it.
They think that North Korea's nuclear weapons are their own.
Takayama.
I have certainly heard the same line from the Mindan. They said things like, "Japanese people must be scared."
Abiru
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Richard Lawless and others wrote several years ago that the U.S. military would withdraw soon.
If South Korea needs a nuclear umbrella when that happens, North Korea or China is the only country that can provide it.
Takayama.
They will probably use the North's nuclear weapons.
That may be a clearer future than the Taiwan Strait.
In the past, the borderline was off the coast of Pusan.
So until now, we could leave it to South Korea because of the presence of South Korea, but that is no longer the case.
We must be prepared for the 38th parallel to come down to the Tsushima Strait.
In that sense, it becomes clear that the Japanese people must protect the Japanese arc.
Abiru
Japan must fortify Tsushima and the Gotō Islands.
Takayama
The Self-Defense Forces are building more and more bases in the Nansei Islands, such as Miyakojima and Ishigaki.
If there are Japanese missile bases on the islands in that area, it will serve as a significant deterrent.
If Chinese ships come, they can sink them all.
It depends on how many missiles can be deployed in the Nansei Islands.
This article continues.
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