アフリカ全体では、そうまでの大騒ぎになっていない…かもしれない。それはなんでかな、という。
BBC Coronavirus in Africa: Contained or unrecorded? 20 May 2020
実際、WHOのいうように、今後大流行して15万人から19万人くらいは死ぬかな、というのは十分あり得るシナリオだろうけど。しかし現実としては、少なくとも現状使える統計的には、そうまで恐ろし気にはなってない、そんな地域もみられるなあと。
「The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that nearly a quarter of a billion Africans could contract coronavirus in the first year of the pandemic, with between 150,000 and 190,000 of them dying.
Africa has had less than 100,000 cases so far, but WHO experts believe the continent will have a prolonged outbreak over a few years - and the huge focus on containing the virus has led to other health issues being neglected.」
現状では10万人ほどの感染者確認にとどまる。そこで数カ国の状況を見ようという記事。
「The Democratic Republic of Congo confirmed its first case of Covid-19 in early March, but a doctor in the capital, Kinshasa, believes the disease arrived earlier.
"During December and January, I can't remember how many patients came for medical treatment, coughing and with fever and headaches," he said, referring to Covid-19 symptoms listed by the WHO.
"I am convinced that we, the medical staff, have been exposed to coronavirus already, without knowing it, and we have built a sort of immunity," he added.」
まあ、その、思ったより早く到達して実はむっちゃ感染していたんだとしても、別に大量死してなきゃいいんじゃない？ とおもうけど。そりゃただの風邪でも、大量感染して医療資源を消尽すればそれはそれで問題だが、37.5度の熱でちょっときっつかったよう、くらいで済んだなら、別に特段の大騒ぎになんかなりゃあしないでしょう。問題は大量死するかどうかで。
…体力にかけた人たちはこの間のエボラ騒ぎで死滅した後ですから、とかいうオチだと、まあ、なんとも言い難いが。
むしろ問題となろうところは
「Unicef said vaccinations were already declining at the beginning of this year, and that the effects of coronavirus will make it worse.
Hundreds of thousands of children had not received polio, measles, yellow fever and other vaccines.」
そのほかの、幼少時のワクチン接種で抑止できるはずの病気立ちに対する対応が遅れがちになっちゃった、というところかなあ。これらは、放置したらそれこそエボラ並みに人を殺すだろう。
「A major public hospital in Kenya's capital, Nairobi, saw an almost 40% increase in respiratory illnesses such as tuberculosis, pneumonia and asthma between December and early March, a doctor who works there told the BBC.
However, the hospital had a sharp decline in such cases since mid-March, said the doctor, who spoke to the BBC on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to speak to the media, added.」
ケニアは3月中旬までには一定の成果を収めたらしくある。とりあえず、地味に広がった感はあるにせよ、現時点で散見する情報からは、すぐさま壊滅的状況にはなりそうにはない。
「In recent days, the number of cases detected daily has risen from single to double digits. This has raised some concern, but the overall number is still low - less than 400.」
「The doctor in Addis Ababa said Ethiopians might have been spared the worst of the virus because of less foreign travel, or there may be other unknown factors at play.」
エチオピアもそこそこ持ちこたえている感じか。こうなると―流行には地域的な要素があるかなあ、とも思いたくもなる。まあその、人口過密なところでは、人と人との接触を減らそうにも減らせない、ということかもしれない。
「There have been reports of more people falling ill and dying in Nigeria's most populous state, Kano, since the outbreak of coronavirus nearly three months ago.
So, it is not surprising that President Muhammadu Buhari has extended the lockdown in the northern state to the end of the month.
A grave digger at the Abattoir Graveyard in the main city, also known as Kano, told the BBC: "We have never seen this, since the major cholera outbreak that our parents tell us about. That was about 60 years ago."」
流行地にはpopulousとつくのが通例になったような感さえあるし。
BBC Coronavirus in Nigeria: The child beggars at the heart of the outbreak 16 May 2020
「Powerful politicians in northern Nigeria are pushing for the scrapping of controversial Koranic schools after some pupils found themselves at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, write the BBC's Nduka Orjinmo and Mansur Abubakar.」
「There was a ban on travel, but the vans, with children sitting shoulder-to-shoulder, were allowed to criss-cross the country's highways to get the boys to their homes in villages, often thousands of miles away.」
コーラン学校が、いわゆるソーシャルディスタンスを取れないので、閉鎖しておこうかという。
米国が中国をコロナウィルス対策・研究の件でのハッキングの廉で非難する。
BBC Coronavirus: US accuses China of hacking coronavirus research 14 May 2020
「China-linked hackers are targeting organisations researching the Covid-19 pandemic, US officials say.
The FBI said it had seen hacking attempts on US groups researching vaccines, treatments and testing.
The US has long accused the Chinese government of cyber-espionage, something Beijing denies.」
「In what was billed as a public service announcement, they said "healthcare, pharmaceutical and research sectors working on Covid-19 response should all be aware they are prime targets" of hackers.」
「US officials have long accused China of hacking and intellectual property theft.
In 2009, the US alleged that China-linked hackers managed to infiltrate the sensitive data from the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet. Shortly afterwards, China announced it was developing a similar jet, the Shenyang J-31.」
「Intelligence officials have also in the past accused China of using "non-traditional collectors", who steal technology from US firms.」
選挙対策もあろうところで、どこまで字面通りに取るかは―まあ我々素人では趣味によるか。わざわざ断定的に語っても、さほど得るものはなさそうだ。
中国が北朝鮮に、このコロナウィルス流行に際して医療支援をするよ、というお話。
BBC Coronavirus: China offers to help North Korea fight pandemic 9 May 2020
「China's president has expressed concern about the threat of the coronavirus to North Korea and offered help.
Xi Jinping was responding to a message that he received from the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un.
Chinese state media reported that the message congratulated Mr Xi on China's apparent success in fighting Covid-19.」
「North Korea's government maintains that there has not been a single confirmed case there, though analysts have questioned whether that is possible.
North Korea was the first country to suspend tourism and to shut its borders in response to the virus, in the third week of January.」
1月以来、旅行規制を実施している北朝鮮。ならば、素で相当程度の封じ込めができている…とは想像可能だけれど、とはいえ完全封鎖なんか難しいでしょうしねえ。うん、その、国境近辺で中国側と闇取引している層と上級市民層とは接触しないのかもしれないけれど。しかしそれ以外にも接触せねばならぬルートは多々あろうし―そして現在の最高指導者殿、親愛なる黒電話氏は…どう見ても危険群筆頭でしょうしねえ…。
…私はひとがいいというか、あほの子属性があるので、北朝鮮で糖尿病の国際学会・フォーラムが開かれた―という話を聞いて、うわあその程度には栄養状態が「いい」階層もあるんだねえ、食えるなんていいことだねえ、すくなくとも誰もかれもが食えないよりは一応いいことだ一応仮にも、と一瞬思っちゃったくらいなのだ。
次の瞬間、ああ、黒電話様対応か…と思ってしまったくらいにはひとがわるいが。
では南の韓国について。
どうでしょうかね。
10％は厳しいが、それは被害が大きかった月のことだということで済むかもしれない。
なんにせよ、大規模死亡を発生させなければ、まあまあ撤退戦としては勝利の部類でしょうよ。
BBC Coronavirus in Africa: Contained or unrecorded? 20 May 2020
実際、WHOのいうように、今後大流行して15万人から19万人くらいは死ぬかな、というのは十分あり得るシナリオだろうけど。しかし現実としては、少なくとも現状使える統計的には、そうまで恐ろし気にはなってない、そんな地域もみられるなあと。
「The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that nearly a quarter of a billion Africans could contract coronavirus in the first year of the pandemic, with between 150,000 and 190,000 of them dying.
Africa has had less than 100,000 cases so far, but WHO experts believe the continent will have a prolonged outbreak over a few years - and the huge focus on containing the virus has led to other health issues being neglected.」
現状では10万人ほどの感染者確認にとどまる。そこで数カ国の状況を見ようという記事。
「The Democratic Republic of Congo confirmed its first case of Covid-19 in early March, but a doctor in the capital, Kinshasa, believes the disease arrived earlier.
"During December and January, I can't remember how many patients came for medical treatment, coughing and with fever and headaches," he said, referring to Covid-19 symptoms listed by the WHO.
"I am convinced that we, the medical staff, have been exposed to coronavirus already, without knowing it, and we have built a sort of immunity," he added.」
まあ、その、思ったより早く到達して実はむっちゃ感染していたんだとしても、別に大量死してなきゃいいんじゃない？ とおもうけど。そりゃただの風邪でも、大量感染して医療資源を消尽すればそれはそれで問題だが、37.5度の熱でちょっときっつかったよう、くらいで済んだなら、別に特段の大騒ぎになんかなりゃあしないでしょう。問題は大量死するかどうかで。
…体力にかけた人たちはこの間のエボラ騒ぎで死滅した後ですから、とかいうオチだと、まあ、なんとも言い難いが。
むしろ問題となろうところは
「Unicef said vaccinations were already declining at the beginning of this year, and that the effects of coronavirus will make it worse.
Hundreds of thousands of children had not received polio, measles, yellow fever and other vaccines.」
そのほかの、幼少時のワクチン接種で抑止できるはずの病気立ちに対する対応が遅れがちになっちゃった、というところかなあ。これらは、放置したらそれこそエボラ並みに人を殺すだろう。
「A major public hospital in Kenya's capital, Nairobi, saw an almost 40% increase in respiratory illnesses such as tuberculosis, pneumonia and asthma between December and early March, a doctor who works there told the BBC.
However, the hospital had a sharp decline in such cases since mid-March, said the doctor, who spoke to the BBC on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to speak to the media, added.」
ケニアは3月中旬までには一定の成果を収めたらしくある。とりあえず、地味に広がった感はあるにせよ、現時点で散見する情報からは、すぐさま壊滅的状況にはなりそうにはない。
「In recent days, the number of cases detected daily has risen from single to double digits. This has raised some concern, but the overall number is still low - less than 400.」
「The doctor in Addis Ababa said Ethiopians might have been spared the worst of the virus because of less foreign travel, or there may be other unknown factors at play.」
エチオピアもそこそこ持ちこたえている感じか。こうなると―流行には地域的な要素があるかなあ、とも思いたくもなる。まあその、人口過密なところでは、人と人との接触を減らそうにも減らせない、ということかもしれない。
「There have been reports of more people falling ill and dying in Nigeria's most populous state, Kano, since the outbreak of coronavirus nearly three months ago.
So, it is not surprising that President Muhammadu Buhari has extended the lockdown in the northern state to the end of the month.
A grave digger at the Abattoir Graveyard in the main city, also known as Kano, told the BBC: "We have never seen this, since the major cholera outbreak that our parents tell us about. That was about 60 years ago."」
流行地にはpopulousとつくのが通例になったような感さえあるし。
BBC Coronavirus in Nigeria: The child beggars at the heart of the outbreak 16 May 2020
「Powerful politicians in northern Nigeria are pushing for the scrapping of controversial Koranic schools after some pupils found themselves at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, write the BBC's Nduka Orjinmo and Mansur Abubakar.」
「There was a ban on travel, but the vans, with children sitting shoulder-to-shoulder, were allowed to criss-cross the country's highways to get the boys to their homes in villages, often thousands of miles away.」
コーラン学校が、いわゆるソーシャルディスタンスを取れないので、閉鎖しておこうかという。
米国が中国をコロナウィルス対策・研究の件でのハッキングの廉で非難する。
BBC Coronavirus: US accuses China of hacking coronavirus research 14 May 2020
「China-linked hackers are targeting organisations researching the Covid-19 pandemic, US officials say.
The FBI said it had seen hacking attempts on US groups researching vaccines, treatments and testing.
The US has long accused the Chinese government of cyber-espionage, something Beijing denies.」
「In what was billed as a public service announcement, they said "healthcare, pharmaceutical and research sectors working on Covid-19 response should all be aware they are prime targets" of hackers.」
「US officials have long accused China of hacking and intellectual property theft.
In 2009, the US alleged that China-linked hackers managed to infiltrate the sensitive data from the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet. Shortly afterwards, China announced it was developing a similar jet, the Shenyang J-31.」
「Intelligence officials have also in the past accused China of using "non-traditional collectors", who steal technology from US firms.」
選挙対策もあろうところで、どこまで字面通りに取るかは―まあ我々素人では趣味によるか。わざわざ断定的に語っても、さほど得るものはなさそうだ。
中国が北朝鮮に、このコロナウィルス流行に際して医療支援をするよ、というお話。
BBC Coronavirus: China offers to help North Korea fight pandemic 9 May 2020
「China's president has expressed concern about the threat of the coronavirus to North Korea and offered help.
Xi Jinping was responding to a message that he received from the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un.
Chinese state media reported that the message congratulated Mr Xi on China's apparent success in fighting Covid-19.」
「North Korea's government maintains that there has not been a single confirmed case there, though analysts have questioned whether that is possible.
North Korea was the first country to suspend tourism and to shut its borders in response to the virus, in the third week of January.」
1月以来、旅行規制を実施している北朝鮮。ならば、素で相当程度の封じ込めができている…とは想像可能だけれど、とはいえ完全封鎖なんか難しいでしょうしねえ。うん、その、国境近辺で中国側と闇取引している層と上級市民層とは接触しないのかもしれないけれど。しかしそれ以外にも接触せねばならぬルートは多々あろうし―そして現在の最高指導者殿、親愛なる黒電話氏は…どう見ても危険群筆頭でしょうしねえ…。
…私はひとがいいというか、あほの子属性があるので、北朝鮮で糖尿病の国際学会・フォーラムが開かれた―という話を聞いて、うわあその程度には栄養状態が「いい」階層もあるんだねえ、食えるなんていいことだねえ、すくなくとも誰もかれもが食えないよりは一応いいことだ一応仮にも、と一瞬思っちゃったくらいなのだ。
次の瞬間、ああ、黒電話様対応か…と思ってしまったくらいにはひとがわるいが。
では南の韓国について。
韓国が抑え込みに成功してる説はどうも説得力ないんだよなぁ…
— アラヤ識 (@X9vtssAjxpsxqYq) May 5, 2020
死因究明してないだけじゃないの、としか思えないぐらい前年比で死亡者数増えてるからなぁ
KOSISでは2月の段階で前年比10.9%となっています。3月はまだ結果が出ていませんが、前年比死亡者数が10%も変動するってなかなかないと思うんですよね…中央日報で記事になるほどですからhttps://t.co/zp0989Dp1G pic.twitter.com/ZIeeLWCy3j
— アラヤ識 (@X9vtssAjxpsxqYq) May 5, 2020
どうでしょうかね。
10％は厳しいが、それは被害が大きかった月のことだということで済むかもしれない。
なんにせよ、大規模死亡を発生させなければ、まあまあ撤退戦としては勝利の部類でしょうよ。
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