（母の庭で：山牡丹の花だったか？亜種である）
ミャンマーは資源が豊かな国なんですね。武装した少数民族も健在で、当分民主化ではなく軍事的支配が続きそうです。
But given its immense natural resources and sizable population of 48 million, if Myanmar can build pan-ethnic institutions in coming decades it could come close to being a midlevel power in its own right -- something that would not necessarily harm Indian and Chinese interests, and, by the way, would unleash trade throughout Asia and the Indian Ocean world.
この論稿の最後の結論がいい兆しである。４，８００万の人口で資源が豊かな国、汎民族的国家をここ１０・２０年間で築き上げることが来たらインドや中国の利害に影響を与えることなくアジアやインドシナ海でより貿易が進むだろう、などとーー。
少数民族が多いということ、その民族間の融合と共生が可能であってほしいということ、その多様な民族の共生、ドミナントな民族とその他多くの少数民族、世界は多様！ユーゴだけでなく、多様な民族や多様な宗教をもつ人々が争い内戦を起こし殺しあった。（現に殺し合っている）民族的憎悪を超えるものは何だろう？単純に同じ人間として誰もが信頼しあえることが可能な関係、それが保障される世界？！はどうしたら実現できるだろうか？Ｐan-ethnic Ｉnstitution! Pan-Asian Ｓociety？！アジア共栄圏？世界はもはや一国ではなりたたない。この新聞記事はあくまで地政学的関係性と経済を論じているが、最近ハッカーに攻撃されている。地球村は村であって村ではない。身近な村に感じても実際は広い。生まれて死に至るまで私達の生きている空間は、実質上の地球村は、限られた範囲にある。移動が流行語になって現在のシンボルのように見えるが、途上、途中で根のない世界に見えるわけではない。移住も移動も相互作用があるけれど、両方向性の中にある。
しかしルーツはそこにあり続ける。ミックスしてさらに混じり合う人種がある。純粋がすでに神話化している現在でもあろうか？多様性の中に伝統の痕跡（歴史・文化、それぞれのミーム）を身体に宿していく。
人の一生は長いようで短い、短いようで長い。最近、人生は線香花火のようなものに思える。花火、美しいモメントをどう伝えようか？ミャンマーである。カンボジアでもない。ミャンマーで、そういえばビルマの竪琴の映画について若者が最近話していた。仏教徒が多いお国柄なのか、まだ軍事政権の弊害だけが伝わってくる国である。アンサンスーチ女史の顔、民主化の春が来ることを念じたい。
How Myanmar Liberates Asia, by Robert D. Kaplan
March 21, 2012 | 0902 GMT
By Robert D. Kaplan
Myanmar's ongoing liberalization and its normalization of relations with the outside world have the possibility of profoundly affecting geopolitics in Asia – and all for the better.
Geographically, Myanmar dominates the Bay of Bengal. It is where the spheres of influence of China and India overlap. Myanmar is also abundant in oil, natural gas, coal, zinc, copper, precious stones, timber and hydropower, with some uranium deposits as well. The prize of the Indo-Pacific region, Myanmar has been locked up by dictatorship for decades, even as the Chinese have been slowly stripping it of natural resources. Think of Myanmar as another Afghanistan in terms of its potential to change a region: a key, geo-strategic puzzle piece ravaged by war and ineffective government that, if only normalized, would unroll trade routes in all directions.
Ever since China's Yuan (ethnic Mongol) dynasty invaded Myanmar in the 13th century, Myanmar has been under the shadow of a Greater China, with no insurmountable geographic barriers or architectural obstacles like the Great Wall to separate the two lands -- though the Hengduan Shan range borders the two countries. At the same time, Myanmar has historically been the home of an Indian business community -- a middleman minority in sociological terms -- that facilitated the British hold on Myanmar as part of a Greater British India.
But if Myanmar continues on its path of reform by opening links to the United States and neighboring countries, rather than remaining a natural resource tract to be exploited by China, Myanmar will develop into an energy and natural resource hub in its own right, uniting the Indian subcontinent, China and Southeast Asia all into one fluid, organic continuum. And although Chinese influence in Myanmar would diminish in relative terms, China would still benefit immensely. Indeed, Kunming, in China's southern Yunnan province, would become the economic capital of Southeast Asia, where river and rail routes from Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam would converge.
Much of this infrastructure activity is already under way. At Ramree Island off Myanmar's northwestern Arakan coast, the Chinese are constructing pipelines to take oil and natural gas from Africa, the Persian Gulf and the Bay of Bengal across the heart of Myanmar to Kunming. The purpose will be to alleviate China's dependence on the Strait of Malacca, through which four-fifths of its crude oil imports pass at present. There will also be a high-speed rail line roughly along this route by 2015.
India, too, is constructing an energy terminal at Sittwe, north of Ramree, on Myanmar's coast, that will potentially carry offshore natural gas northwest through Bangladesh to the vast demographic inkblot that is the Indian state of West Bengal. The Indian pipeline would actually split into two directions, with another proposed route going to the north around Bangladesh. Commercial goods will follow along new highways to be built to India. Kolkata, Chittagong and Yangon, rather than being cities in three separate countries, will finally be part of one Indian Ocean world.
The salient fact here is that by liberating Myanmar, India's hitherto landlocked northeast, lying on the far side of Bangladesh, will also be opened up to the outside. Northeast India has suffered from bad geography and underdevelopment, and as a consequence it has experienced about a dozen insurgencies in recent decades. Hilly and jungle-covered, northeast India is cut off from India proper by backbreakingly poor Bangladesh to the west and by Myanmar, hitherto a hermetic and undeveloped state, to the east. But Myanmar's political opening and economic development changes this geopolitical fact, because both India's northeast and Bangladesh will benefit from Myanmar's political and economic renewal.
With poverty reduced somewhat in all these areas, the pressure on Kolkata and West Bengal to absorb economic refugees will be alleviated. This immeasurably strengthens India, whose land borders with semi-failed states within the subcontinent (Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh) has undermined its ability to project political and military power outward into Asia and the Middle East. More broadly, a liberalized Myanmar draws India deeper into Asia, so that India can more effectively balance against China.
But while the future beckons with opportunities, the present is still not assured. The political transition in Myanmar has only begun, and much can still go wrong. The problem, as it was in Yugoslavia and Iraq, is regional and ethnic divides.
Myanmar is a vast kingdom organized around the central Irrawaddy River Valley. The ethnic Burman word for this valley is Myanmar, hence the official name of the country. But a third of the population is not ethnic Burman, even as regionally based minorities in friable borderlands account for seven of Myanmar's 14 states. The hill areas around the Irrawaddy Valley are populated by Chin, Kachin, Shan, Karen and Karenni peoples, who also have their own armies and irregular forces, which have been battling the Burman-controlled national army since the early Cold War period.
Worse, these minority-populated hill regions are ethnically divided from within. For example, the Shan area is also home to Was, Lahus, Paos, Kayans and other tribal peoples. All these groups are products of historical migrations from Tibet, China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Cambodia, so that the Chin in western Myanmar have almost nothing in common with the Karen in eastern Myanmar. Nor is there a community of language and culture between the Shans and the ethnic Burmans, except for their Buddhist religion. As for the Arakanese, heirs to a cosmopolitan seaboard civilization influenced by Hindu Bengal, they feel particularly disconnected from the rest of Myanmar and compare their plight to disenfranchised minorities in the Middle East and Africa.
In other words, simply holding elections is not enough if all elections do is bring ethnic Burmans to power who do not compromise with the minorities. The military came to power in Myanmar in 1962 to control the minority-populated borderlands around the Irrawaddy Valley. The military has governed now for half a century. Myanmar has few functioning institutions that are not military-dominated. A system with generous power awarded to the minorities must now be constructed from scratch; peaceful integration of restive minorities requires vibrant federal institutions.
Myanmar, it is true, is becoming less repressive and more open to the outside world. But that in and of itself does not make for a viable institutionalized state. In sum, for Myanmar to succeed, even with civilians in control, the military will have to play a significant role for years to come, because it is mainly officers who know how to run things.
But given its immense natural resources and sizable population of 48 million, if Myanmar can build pan-ethnic institutions in coming decades it could come close to being a midlevel power in its own right -- something that would not necessarily harm Indian and Chinese interests, and, by the way, would unleash trade throughout Asia and the Indian Ocean world.
＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊
以下のような文章もあった！
週刊新潮の名物コラム「変見自在」を本にした、高山正之氏の「スーチー女史は善人か」をご存知有りませんか？
http://www.shinchosha.co.jp/book/305872/
元々、ビルマは仏教を信じる単一民族、単一宗教の国でした。 19世紀に、英国がやってきて、無理やり大量のインド人と華僑を入れました。結果、あっという間にビルマの経済はインド人と華僑に牛耳られてしまいました。 次に英国は周辺の山岳民族を山からおろしてキリスト教に改宗させ、警察と軍隊を編成させました。 つまり、英国は元々のビルマ人をたんなる農奴に落としめてしまったわけです。 第2次大戦後、ビルマはビルマ人のための国作りに目覚めます。 日本が列強を叩いて、結果として英国から解放することになったからです。 ネ・ウィンは鎖国と徳政令、デノミを展開しました。 そのため、ビルマは最貧国に転落し、なんのうまみも無くなったビルマから、インド人と華僑はさっさと出て行きました。 「植民地支配」に対する愚痴や怒りをだれにぶつけることもなく、沈黙の民族ビルマ人は堪え忍ぶわけです。 性格的には日本人気質と似ています。
「これらの努力をすべてぶちこわしているのがスーチーだ」と高山先生は指摘しています。 スーチーさんの旦那は英国情報部に勤務し、スーチーさんが英国留学中にある意図を持って接近し、結婚までしてスーチーさんを英国の傀儡に仕立て上げました。 ある意味逆のハニー・トラップです。 ビルマを欧米流に「民主化」させて、英米で利権を奪って実質再度植民地にしてしまおうと言う意図で、彼女は送り込まれたのです。 20年間軟禁されているというものの、彼女の自宅の隣はアメリカ大使館です。 日本を第二次世界大戦に追いやって、結果玉抜きにしたのもそうですし、英米の謀略って本当にすごい物です。
＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊
すべてが英米の謀略ということがありえるだろうか？
（母の庭で：フリージャーの花の香はとてもいいね！）
.
Read more: How Myanmar Liberates Asia, by Robert D. Kaplan | Stratfor
ミャンマーは資源が豊かな国なんですね。武装した少数民族も健在で、当分民主化ではなく軍事的支配が続きそうです。
But given its immense natural resources and sizable population of 48 million, if Myanmar can build pan-ethnic institutions in coming decades it could come close to being a midlevel power in its own right -- something that would not necessarily harm Indian and Chinese interests, and, by the way, would unleash trade throughout Asia and the Indian Ocean world.
この論稿の最後の結論がいい兆しである。４，８００万の人口で資源が豊かな国、汎民族的国家をここ１０・２０年間で築き上げることが来たらインドや中国の利害に影響を与えることなくアジアやインドシナ海でより貿易が進むだろう、などとーー。
少数民族が多いということ、その民族間の融合と共生が可能であってほしいということ、その多様な民族の共生、ドミナントな民族とその他多くの少数民族、世界は多様！ユーゴだけでなく、多様な民族や多様な宗教をもつ人々が争い内戦を起こし殺しあった。（現に殺し合っている）民族的憎悪を超えるものは何だろう？単純に同じ人間として誰もが信頼しあえることが可能な関係、それが保障される世界？！はどうしたら実現できるだろうか？Ｐan-ethnic Ｉnstitution! Pan-Asian Ｓociety？！アジア共栄圏？世界はもはや一国ではなりたたない。この新聞記事はあくまで地政学的関係性と経済を論じているが、最近ハッカーに攻撃されている。地球村は村であって村ではない。身近な村に感じても実際は広い。生まれて死に至るまで私達の生きている空間は、実質上の地球村は、限られた範囲にある。移動が流行語になって現在のシンボルのように見えるが、途上、途中で根のない世界に見えるわけではない。移住も移動も相互作用があるけれど、両方向性の中にある。
しかしルーツはそこにあり続ける。ミックスしてさらに混じり合う人種がある。純粋がすでに神話化している現在でもあろうか？多様性の中に伝統の痕跡（歴史・文化、それぞれのミーム）を身体に宿していく。
人の一生は長いようで短い、短いようで長い。最近、人生は線香花火のようなものに思える。花火、美しいモメントをどう伝えようか？ミャンマーである。カンボジアでもない。ミャンマーで、そういえばビルマの竪琴の映画について若者が最近話していた。仏教徒が多いお国柄なのか、まだ軍事政権の弊害だけが伝わってくる国である。アンサンスーチ女史の顔、民主化の春が来ることを念じたい。
How Myanmar Liberates Asia, by Robert D. Kaplan
March 21, 2012 | 0902 GMT
By Robert D. Kaplan
Myanmar's ongoing liberalization and its normalization of relations with the outside world have the possibility of profoundly affecting geopolitics in Asia – and all for the better.
Geographically, Myanmar dominates the Bay of Bengal. It is where the spheres of influence of China and India overlap. Myanmar is also abundant in oil, natural gas, coal, zinc, copper, precious stones, timber and hydropower, with some uranium deposits as well. The prize of the Indo-Pacific region, Myanmar has been locked up by dictatorship for decades, even as the Chinese have been slowly stripping it of natural resources. Think of Myanmar as another Afghanistan in terms of its potential to change a region: a key, geo-strategic puzzle piece ravaged by war and ineffective government that, if only normalized, would unroll trade routes in all directions.
Ever since China's Yuan (ethnic Mongol) dynasty invaded Myanmar in the 13th century, Myanmar has been under the shadow of a Greater China, with no insurmountable geographic barriers or architectural obstacles like the Great Wall to separate the two lands -- though the Hengduan Shan range borders the two countries. At the same time, Myanmar has historically been the home of an Indian business community -- a middleman minority in sociological terms -- that facilitated the British hold on Myanmar as part of a Greater British India.
But if Myanmar continues on its path of reform by opening links to the United States and neighboring countries, rather than remaining a natural resource tract to be exploited by China, Myanmar will develop into an energy and natural resource hub in its own right, uniting the Indian subcontinent, China and Southeast Asia all into one fluid, organic continuum. And although Chinese influence in Myanmar would diminish in relative terms, China would still benefit immensely. Indeed, Kunming, in China's southern Yunnan province, would become the economic capital of Southeast Asia, where river and rail routes from Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam would converge.
Much of this infrastructure activity is already under way. At Ramree Island off Myanmar's northwestern Arakan coast, the Chinese are constructing pipelines to take oil and natural gas from Africa, the Persian Gulf and the Bay of Bengal across the heart of Myanmar to Kunming. The purpose will be to alleviate China's dependence on the Strait of Malacca, through which four-fifths of its crude oil imports pass at present. There will also be a high-speed rail line roughly along this route by 2015.
India, too, is constructing an energy terminal at Sittwe, north of Ramree, on Myanmar's coast, that will potentially carry offshore natural gas northwest through Bangladesh to the vast demographic inkblot that is the Indian state of West Bengal. The Indian pipeline would actually split into two directions, with another proposed route going to the north around Bangladesh. Commercial goods will follow along new highways to be built to India. Kolkata, Chittagong and Yangon, rather than being cities in three separate countries, will finally be part of one Indian Ocean world.
The salient fact here is that by liberating Myanmar, India's hitherto landlocked northeast, lying on the far side of Bangladesh, will also be opened up to the outside. Northeast India has suffered from bad geography and underdevelopment, and as a consequence it has experienced about a dozen insurgencies in recent decades. Hilly and jungle-covered, northeast India is cut off from India proper by backbreakingly poor Bangladesh to the west and by Myanmar, hitherto a hermetic and undeveloped state, to the east. But Myanmar's political opening and economic development changes this geopolitical fact, because both India's northeast and Bangladesh will benefit from Myanmar's political and economic renewal.
With poverty reduced somewhat in all these areas, the pressure on Kolkata and West Bengal to absorb economic refugees will be alleviated. This immeasurably strengthens India, whose land borders with semi-failed states within the subcontinent (Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh) has undermined its ability to project political and military power outward into Asia and the Middle East. More broadly, a liberalized Myanmar draws India deeper into Asia, so that India can more effectively balance against China.
But while the future beckons with opportunities, the present is still not assured. The political transition in Myanmar has only begun, and much can still go wrong. The problem, as it was in Yugoslavia and Iraq, is regional and ethnic divides.
Myanmar is a vast kingdom organized around the central Irrawaddy River Valley. The ethnic Burman word for this valley is Myanmar, hence the official name of the country. But a third of the population is not ethnic Burman, even as regionally based minorities in friable borderlands account for seven of Myanmar's 14 states. The hill areas around the Irrawaddy Valley are populated by Chin, Kachin, Shan, Karen and Karenni peoples, who also have their own armies and irregular forces, which have been battling the Burman-controlled national army since the early Cold War period.
Worse, these minority-populated hill regions are ethnically divided from within. For example, the Shan area is also home to Was, Lahus, Paos, Kayans and other tribal peoples. All these groups are products of historical migrations from Tibet, China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Cambodia, so that the Chin in western Myanmar have almost nothing in common with the Karen in eastern Myanmar. Nor is there a community of language and culture between the Shans and the ethnic Burmans, except for their Buddhist religion. As for the Arakanese, heirs to a cosmopolitan seaboard civilization influenced by Hindu Bengal, they feel particularly disconnected from the rest of Myanmar and compare their plight to disenfranchised minorities in the Middle East and Africa.
In other words, simply holding elections is not enough if all elections do is bring ethnic Burmans to power who do not compromise with the minorities. The military came to power in Myanmar in 1962 to control the minority-populated borderlands around the Irrawaddy Valley. The military has governed now for half a century. Myanmar has few functioning institutions that are not military-dominated. A system with generous power awarded to the minorities must now be constructed from scratch; peaceful integration of restive minorities requires vibrant federal institutions.
Myanmar, it is true, is becoming less repressive and more open to the outside world. But that in and of itself does not make for a viable institutionalized state. In sum, for Myanmar to succeed, even with civilians in control, the military will have to play a significant role for years to come, because it is mainly officers who know how to run things.
But given its immense natural resources and sizable population of 48 million, if Myanmar can build pan-ethnic institutions in coming decades it could come close to being a midlevel power in its own right -- something that would not necessarily harm Indian and Chinese interests, and, by the way, would unleash trade throughout Asia and the Indian Ocean world.
＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊
以下のような文章もあった！
週刊新潮の名物コラム「変見自在」を本にした、高山正之氏の「スーチー女史は善人か」をご存知有りませんか？
http://www.shinchosha.co.jp/book/305872/
元々、ビルマは仏教を信じる単一民族、単一宗教の国でした。 19世紀に、英国がやってきて、無理やり大量のインド人と華僑を入れました。結果、あっという間にビルマの経済はインド人と華僑に牛耳られてしまいました。 次に英国は周辺の山岳民族を山からおろしてキリスト教に改宗させ、警察と軍隊を編成させました。 つまり、英国は元々のビルマ人をたんなる農奴に落としめてしまったわけです。 第2次大戦後、ビルマはビルマ人のための国作りに目覚めます。 日本が列強を叩いて、結果として英国から解放することになったからです。 ネ・ウィンは鎖国と徳政令、デノミを展開しました。 そのため、ビルマは最貧国に転落し、なんのうまみも無くなったビルマから、インド人と華僑はさっさと出て行きました。 「植民地支配」に対する愚痴や怒りをだれにぶつけることもなく、沈黙の民族ビルマ人は堪え忍ぶわけです。 性格的には日本人気質と似ています。
「これらの努力をすべてぶちこわしているのがスーチーだ」と高山先生は指摘しています。 スーチーさんの旦那は英国情報部に勤務し、スーチーさんが英国留学中にある意図を持って接近し、結婚までしてスーチーさんを英国の傀儡に仕立て上げました。 ある意味逆のハニー・トラップです。 ビルマを欧米流に「民主化」させて、英米で利権を奪って実質再度植民地にしてしまおうと言う意図で、彼女は送り込まれたのです。 20年間軟禁されているというものの、彼女の自宅の隣はアメリカ大使館です。 日本を第二次世界大戦に追いやって、結果玉抜きにしたのもそうですし、英米の謀略って本当にすごい物です。
＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊
すべてが英米の謀略ということがありえるだろうか？
（母の庭で：フリージャーの花の香はとてもいいね！）
.
Read more: How Myanmar Liberates Asia, by Robert D. Kaplan | Stratfor
