Political and business circles across Asia face a shifting geopolitical environment driven by the inevitable rise of China. Several fundamental factors are driving this shift that if fully understood should help established political orders, business interests, and ruling elite across Asia position themselves for a peaceful, stable, prosperous future. Failure to position oneself carefully as this shift takes place, can see a political dynasty or business empire swallowed whole in the fissures of geopolitical tectonic change.中国の台頭でアジアの政治・ビジネス業界は地政学的環境の変動を余儀なくされている。平和で安定した豊かな未来を目指すため夫々のアジアの支配階層はいくつかの要因の前に突き動かされている。地政学的地殻【構造】の変動の亀裂の中に政治的権力や大企業が飲み込まれていく状況の中にある。
What Asia Looked Like and Why It’s Changing
For centuries Asia was dominated by first European colonial hegemony, then for nearly a century, American hegemony. The United States itself admits that it possesses “primacy” over Asia and that its primary geopolitical objective in Asia is to maintain that “primacy.”何世紀もアジアは当初ヨーロッパの植民地覇権に支配され、そして一世紀、アメリカの覇権に支配されてきた。アメリカはアジアへのヘゲモニーを認めている。そのアジアの地政学的ターゲットは従来のアメリカの主導権を守ることである。
For the better part of a century, maintaining that primacy was enabled by vast economic and military disparity between Washington and the collective resources of Asia. Victory in World War 2 and America’s subsequent involvement in both the Korean War and the Vietnam War allowed the United States to maintain an immense military, political, and economic footprint in the region.半世紀のよりよい関係はワシントンの巨大な経済力と軍事力とアジアの集合的資源の格差によって維持されてきた。第二次世界大戦の勝利、朝鮮戦争、ベトナム戦争がアメリカのその地域へ巨大な軍事的、政治経済的足跡【足場】を可能にした。
In the wake of the Vietnam War, however, an exhausted American Empire began its slow and inevitable retreat. In the void left by this expanding retreat, nations across the region, not the least of which is China, have built themselves up socioeconomically, militarily, and geopolitically.ヴェトナム戦争時しかしながら疲弊したアメリカ帝国は衰退し始めた。その拡大する後退の中で中国などは社会経済、軍事、地政学的に復興してきた。
US Admits It is a Losing Proposition アメリカの政策の失敗
American efforts to contain China have proven futile – points made in the US’ own policy papers who have attempted on multiple occasions to reformulate their antiquated concept of “primacy” and impose it upon Asia. The most recent of which was published by the influential Council on Foreign Relations – a corporate-funded think tank that represents the collective interests of some of the most powerful Western corporate-financier interests on Earth.
Their report, “Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China,” states in no uncertain terms:
Because the American effort to ‘integrate’ China into the liberal international order has now generated new threats to U.S. primacy in Asia—and could result in a consequential challenge to American power globally—Washington needs a new grand strategy toward China that centers on balancing the rise of Chinese power rather than continuing to assist its ascendancy.中国を自由な国際的秩序の中に融合させる努力はアメリカのアジア覇権【主導】の重要な脅威になっている。中国の優位性を増長させるよりも中国の台頭を世界の中で位置づける新しい基本的枠組みを必要としている。
The report was written by US political administrator and political lobbyist Robert Blackwill who has throughout his career played a role in grooming prospective client regimes in Asia through which the US planned to maintain its regional primacy.
For those that have been approached by Blackwill and Anglo-American lobbyists like him to assist in maintaining Western hegemony in Asia, his most recent report should serve as a wake up call. The US can no longer sustain its political, economic, or military grip on Asia – and those now being asked to invest in America’s failing enterprise are clearly being asked to pick a losing proposition.つまりロビーストの分析と提言によると、Ｂｌａｃｋｗｉｌｌさん、アメリカは敗北しつつある。アジアの覇権は厳しいということだね。
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) among other US-initiated trade agreements seeks to establish economic control over the region not for the benefit of any nation actually residing in Asia, but for Washington’s benefit specifically at the cost of Asia. The primary objective of the United States now is to isolate China from the rest of Asia – but in the process this will deny Asia the benefit of rising with China economically, politically, and militarily in an Asia redefined for Asians.中国を排斥したＴＰＰの矛盾だね。アジアをカモ（犠牲）にするアメリカの利害のためのアジア支配への戦略だが、中国と共に経済、政治、軍事的に地域の福利・安寧を高めようとするアジアの国々の再定義を否定することになる。
Blackwill’s CFR report proposes a myriad of “solutions” to rectify America’s decline in Asia – none of which can actually be implemented. Vague proposals such as to “vitalize the U.S. economy” lack any pragmatic dimensions. Others such as “strengthening the U.S. military” involve spending money that does not exist on programs that will never be approved. Other recommendations include expanding military cooperation throughout Asia – a move that would be provocative to China and would cost US partners economically both in the short and long-term.Ｂｌａｃｋｗｉｌｌのレポート（提案）が否定されている。アメリカ経済の活性化や軍隊の強化も諸々が対中国的に挑発的でアメリカのパートナー（日本か）に長期的にも短期的にも経済的危険を伴うだろう。日本の現況＝アメリカのアーミステージプラン（？）の損失かもしれないね。危険です！
In other words, the US is trying to sell Asian players shares in its already unfolding and inevitable decline.アメリカは避けられない衰退の負担をアジアの国々に売り込もうとしている。日本がターゲットかもしれない！厳しいね。
An Unchanging Empire in a Changing World変動する世界の変わらない帝国
The ruling interests in the United States fail to realize the shifting balance of power. Not only do they deny this shift is occurring, they lack any viable measures with which to adjust to it. The concept of a single corporation or handful of corporations controlling the production and distribution of the globe’s automobiles, aircraft, electronic devices, and other consumer goods has been negated not only by rising economic power outside these established, primarily Western monopolies, but by the changing landscape of technology itself.権力バランスの変動があらゆる面で起こっている。技術そのものの地殻変動が起こっている・西欧の独占体制は崩れている。
In such a changing landscape where the ground shifts so quickly – monolithic corporate-financier structures built on a foundation of monopoly are like towering stone castles built on mud. They will shift, lean, and inevitably topple, crushing all those inside.
China itself realizes its future is not that of the “world’s factory,” and is already adjusting itself not politically, but pragmatically to meet a future multipolar world – one in which nations stand more equal to one another and economic, political, military, and technical disparity is reduced. Those that adjust themselves along similar lines of pragmatism will prosper. Those who choose to invest in America’s admittedly failed enterprise of global hegemony, will lose with America.
中国が世界の工場ではない。政治的に実際的に将来の多極的世界を想定して、夫々の国がより平等で経済、政治、軍事的隔絶をなくする方向への調整が進められている。協調して同様なプログラマティズム（実用的な戦略）をする国々は栄えるだろう。アメリカのような世界の覇権国家的投資はアメリカと共に失速するだろう。
America’s Hopes Lie in Asian Leaders’ Egos アメリカの希望はアジアのリーダーたちの意思【知性】にある
The United States, not unlike empires before it, holds the allure of elitism, power, and prestige over the heads of potential client regimes. The promise of a “seat at the table” is tempting for those who place their ego before commonsense, particularly those who see the US as an avenue toward power in their respective nations.
Rather than realign itself with a changing world that will not need nor tolerate American primacy in the future, the United States has doubled down on attracting the lowest common denominator in targeted nations across the world to do their bidding.
For those nations turning down America’s losing proposition, invitations have shifted to coercion. However, a nation that depends on forging international relations through coercion, subversion, terrorism, and the threat of war is a nation that has nothing of true substance to offer. After all, the United States would not need to convince a nation that doing business with Washington and Wall Street were in their best interest if it were truly in their best interest.
In Asia, for business and political leaders who value a viable future, identifying vectors through which the US can impose its increasingly desperate policy of “primacy” over Asia, and eliminating these vectors should become a priority. Politicians and business leaders who value their egos over commonsense – or short-term promises over long-term certainty – should be involved in neither politics nor business.
For those who actually believe dealing with the US will in the long term benefit them, their personal interests, or their nation and region as a whole, they need simply to read the US’ own policy papers admitting their current “grand strategy” benefits none-of-the-above – and is not even benefiting the United States itself.アメリカの戦略はまったくなんらの利害を生み出さなかった。
Will Asian Leaders Choose Commonsense?
The dismantling of American hegemony over Asia has already begun. Nations are systematically divesting from the United States and investing in both closer ties throughout Asia, and specifically, closer ties with Beijing. Attempts to overthrow governments across Southeast Asia, strong-arm “allies” including Japan, Korea, and the Philippines to take a confrontational tack toward Beijing, and increasingly coercive attempts to impose highly unpopular trade agreements with Asia have created considerable instability throughout the region.アメリカのアジア覇権の後退【分解】は始まっている。北京との緊密な関係が始まっている。対中国の日本、韓国、フィリッピンの威圧的な軍事協定は、その地域に不安定をもたらす。
The entire premise of American “primacy” in Asia is that only America can bring peace and stability to the region. Not unlike a protection racket run by low-grade thugs, it appears much of the “instability” the US claims it is protecting the region from, is of its own creation in the first place. For Asia to grow and reach its true potential, to become leaders of their own region, and influential players on the world stage, they cannot afford to be burdened by the United States’ antiquated notions of global empire or their increasingly disruptive attempts to maintain these notions across Asia.アメリカ主導のヘゲモニーは逆に不安定をもたらしている。アジアが成長するために真にその可能性を達成するために、自らの地域のリーダーになるために（自決権）、世界の影響力のある役割を演じるためにアメリカの古い世界の覇者としての論理に、追随してはならない。アメリカは自らの覇権を維持するために破壊もいとわない。（意訳）
Tony Cartalucci, Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
