The Pacific Century Gains Momentum 送られてきたISAのニュースです！
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Eight Years in the Making
This week, trade ministers from 12 Pacific Rim countries reached a long-awaited deal on the ambitious Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, one of the largest trade deals ever reached. After eight years of difficult negotiations, 12 countries (the United States, Japan, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, New Zealand and Brunei) are now on the verge of significantly increasing their trade, investment and business ties in a move that will have major repercussions in the Pacific region and beyond. Moreover, this trade deal will have a major impact on the balance of power in Asia, as it will further strengthen the United States' presence in that vital region. Of course, it is little secret that many of the 12 original members of the TPP view its creation as a direct response to the rising economic and military power of China in the Asia-Pacific region, so China's response to the TPP agreement will be closely watched.アジアの力のバランスに寄与する。USの地域への関与を高めるが中国の反応も覗っている。
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A Truly Massive Trade Deal
The Trans-Pacific Partnership's 12 original members account for 40% of global economic output, and on this scale, this makes the TPP the most important trade agreement in recent history. For example, almost all of the Pacific Rim's developed economies are part of the TPP and the two main developed economies in the region outside of the TPP (South Korea and Taiwan) have both expressed interest in joining at some future date. In addition, many of the region's most important emerging markets are also members of the TPP and others such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Colombia have expressed their interest in joining the TPP in the near future. Already, most of the world's fastest-growing developed economies are members of the TPP and many of its emerging market members are among those that offer the most significant trade and investment growth opportunities in the coming years. Meanwhile, the TPP is certain to strengthen the political ties among many of its members, as it consists mainly of countries that already established solid political and defense ties with one another.韓国、台湾も参加の可能性を残している。インドネシア、フイリピン、タイ、コロンビアもまた。経済的協定は政治軍事防衛の絆にもなっている。
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Hurdles to Overcome 克服すべき課題 反TPP勢力の存在
While this week's deal was broadly welcomed by the 12 member states of the TPP, there are a number of obstacles still to overcome in order for the TPP to become a reality. First and foremost, the United States Congress must approve the TPP and there is strong opposition to this deal from some elements of both of the major political parties in the US. Certainly, this ambitious trade agreement will become a major issue in the 2016 presidential election in the United States, with populist candidates such as Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders expressing strong opposition to this trade deal. Meanwhile, a number of special interest groups in TPP member states such as Japan Canada and Australia have vowed to work to prevent the deal's passage in their countries' legislatures and this could delay its implementation. Finally, the secrecy that surrounded the negotiations over the TPP has troubled many special-interest groups within the 12 countries of the TPP and this has led to high levels of popular opposition to this trade deal in some of these countries.交渉の秘匿性が多くの特別な利害を持つ組織の反発を招いている。
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All Eyes on China 中国へ向けられるまなざし
For many members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the rising economic and military power of China was a decisive factor in their desire to see this trade deal move forward. In East and Southeast Asia, there is a strong desire to gain more solid commitments from the United States for the region's political and economic security and the TPP is seen as a way of further enhancing US ties with the region. For the TPP's member states in the Americas and the Pacific, this trade deal is viewed as an opportunity for these economies to enhance their trade and investment ties with countries apart from China, as well as a means to help them to diversify their economies away from their dependence upon commodity exports at a time when commodity prices are depressed. Nevertheless, many expect China to one day join the TPP and it is no secret that the business community in most TPP member states is hopeful that China will one day join. Until then, the TPP is likely to be viewed with skepticism in China and could increase the view in Beijing that China is being surrounded by hostile states bent on preventing it from claiming what it believes is its rightful place as the dominant economic and military power in Asia.中国の動向が未来を決める？中国も参加するだろうか？
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