別件（肺炎患者の治療目的）で採取していたサンプルを確かめてみたら、1例ではあるものの、12月27日段階で肺炎で治療を受けていた人のサンプルから陽性反応が得られたという。
BBC Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December' 5 May 2020
流行地に行った覚えはない、という50歳代の男性のサンプル。ということは、既にこの段階で、人-人間の感染をしていた可能性がある。
「A patient diagnosed with pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said.
Dr Yves Cohen told French media a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19.
The patient, a man in his 50s who has since fully recovered, said he has no idea where he caught the virus as he had not been to any infected areas.」
これまで知られた例では1月24日のデータ、武漢帰りの2名とその家族が最も早期だった。流行の端緒という意味で影響度が高いのはどっちだどう・どの時点だろうというのは、数理的なモデル、あるいはそこにいれる数字の問題でもあろうし、まあ素人の手出しするところではないだろうけど―。
―12月末の段階で肺炎だった患者の原因ウィルスであったなら、つまり12月中旬には感染しているわけであり。
その段階から地味に無症状感染者が多数発生していたなら、まあ…本格的ロックダウンは約束された未来でしかなかったということになるかな。
「This news means the virus may have arrived in France almost a month earlier than previously thought.
Until now, the country's first three cases of coronavirus were confirmed on 24 January.
Of those, two had been to Wuhan in China - where the outbreak was first detected - and the third was a close family member.」
「"Out of 14 patients, one tested positive. We tested it two more times to make sure there was no mistake. And twice, it came back positive."
Dr Cohen said he had alerted the National Health Agency (ARS), and was urging other virologists to re-test swabs in their hospitals for Covid-19.」
追試してもやっぱりポジティブという。
米国では、規模感としてはフランスをはるかに上回る惨状で。ということは、こちらでも相当早期に入り込んではいたんだろうな。
BBC Coronavirus: Trump warns US death toll could hit 100,000 4 May 2020
「US President Donald Trump has warned that as many as 100,000 people could die of coronavirus in the US.
Speaking at a two-hour virtual "town hall", Mr Trump also denied that his administration had acted too slowly.
More than 67,000 people have already died with Covid-19 in the US.
But Mr Trump expressed optimism about the development of a vaccine, suggesting one could be ready by the end of this year - although experts believe it will take 12 to 18 months.」
現時点で「根絶」自体ほぼ不可能、だろう。とすると、次のシーズンにも同様の現象が発生しうる・割といい（人間の主観的・利害得失的には悪い）確率で繰り返されるものかとも思われ、いやあ、これ、深刻にマズいな。
BBC Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December' 5 May 2020
流行地に行った覚えはない、という50歳代の男性のサンプル。ということは、既にこの段階で、人-人間の感染をしていた可能性がある。
「A patient diagnosed with pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said.
Dr Yves Cohen told French media a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19.
The patient, a man in his 50s who has since fully recovered, said he has no idea where he caught the virus as he had not been to any infected areas.」
これまで知られた例では1月24日のデータ、武漢帰りの2名とその家族が最も早期だった。流行の端緒という意味で影響度が高いのはどっちだどう・どの時点だろうというのは、数理的なモデル、あるいはそこにいれる数字の問題でもあろうし、まあ素人の手出しするところではないだろうけど―。
―12月末の段階で肺炎だった患者の原因ウィルスであったなら、つまり12月中旬には感染しているわけであり。
その段階から地味に無症状感染者が多数発生していたなら、まあ…本格的ロックダウンは約束された未来でしかなかったということになるかな。
「This news means the virus may have arrived in France almost a month earlier than previously thought.
Until now, the country's first three cases of coronavirus were confirmed on 24 January.
Of those, two had been to Wuhan in China - where the outbreak was first detected - and the third was a close family member.」
「"Out of 14 patients, one tested positive. We tested it two more times to make sure there was no mistake. And twice, it came back positive."
Dr Cohen said he had alerted the National Health Agency (ARS), and was urging other virologists to re-test swabs in their hospitals for Covid-19.」
追試してもやっぱりポジティブという。
米国では、規模感としてはフランスをはるかに上回る惨状で。ということは、こちらでも相当早期に入り込んではいたんだろうな。
BBC Coronavirus: Trump warns US death toll could hit 100,000 4 May 2020
「US President Donald Trump has warned that as many as 100,000 people could die of coronavirus in the US.
Speaking at a two-hour virtual "town hall", Mr Trump also denied that his administration had acted too slowly.
More than 67,000 people have already died with Covid-19 in the US.
But Mr Trump expressed optimism about the development of a vaccine, suggesting one could be ready by the end of this year - although experts believe it will take 12 to 18 months.」
現時点で「根絶」自体ほぼ不可能、だろう。とすると、次のシーズンにも同様の現象が発生しうる・割といい（人間の主観的・利害得失的には悪い）確率で繰り返されるものかとも思われ、いやあ、これ、深刻にマズいな。
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