Could Turkey Disintegrate?←トルコは崩壊（分解）するのだろうか？

≪そこで弁当を広げて食べたい思いつつまだ実現していない！≫　　 ＩＳＡが購買の催促をしながら送ってきたのをＵＰしておきます。 世俗的イスラム国家のひとつとしてインドネシア同様、安定していると思われたトルコ、ＥＵ加盟も目指していてＥＵのキリスト教圏に阻まれた感じでしたが、今中東の複雑な戦争状況の中で安定していた国内分裂の際どい状態だと書いていますね。シリアの内戦、ＩＳＩＳ，クルド民族の独立運動、宗教的対立も兼ねて、たいへんは状況ですね。内部での抑圧、独裁的政権への移行もありえそうです。   Could Turkey Disintegrate? Tensions Keep Rising  The recent series of bomb attacks in Turkey that culminated in the devastating twin bombings in Ankara that claimed nearly 100 lives at a peace rally there have shaken the notion that Turkey was an island of relative stability amid a sea of unrest and conflict. This trend towards more internal unrest in Turkey holds the potential to dramatically increase the level of political risk within this strategically located country that is pivotal to the volatile eastern Mediterranean region. Moreover, this unrest has the potential to lead to increasing levels of authoritarianism and repression inside Turkey as the threat of unrest gives the government the opportunity to crack down on its perceived opponents. Given the fact that the regions surrounding Turkey are already the scene of some of the world's worst conflicts in recent years, a descent into instability in Turkey could well have devastating consequences for Europe and the Middle East.不安定さがＥＵや中東全域にあたえる影響が大きくなりそうです。 External Threats The leading threats to Turkey's political stability continue to be found all around Turkey's borders. To the north of Turkey, Russia's intervention in Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea have resulted in Russia gaining a much stronger foothold in the Black Sea region, potentially threatening Turkey's interests there. To the east, the Caucasus remains one of the world's most unstable regions, with Islamist extremists gaining support in the north Caucasus and with the threat of a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan potentially drawing Turkey into a conflict in the southern Caucasus. To the west, Greece's economic meltdown and Europe's migration crisis also hold the potential to destabilize Turkey, particularly as hundreds of thousands of Syrian, Iraqi and other refugees travel through Turkey on their way to Europe. トルコの国境地域の状況がすさまじいですね。ロシアのクリミアの併合、黒海の利害の懸念、コウカサスCaucasusの世界で最も不安定要因ＩＳＩＳが北コウカサスの指示を得ているしアルメニアとアゼルバイジャンの戦争の危機も南 コウカサスの混乱にトルコを引き込み兼ねない状況。西はギリシャの経済のメルトダウン ＥＵへの移民問題など、何十万人ものイラクやシリア難民はトルコを通過していく。 民族大移動が起こっている。キリスト教圏とイスラム教圏の融合になるだろうか？（Ｍｙ　ｖｉｅｗ） Internal Divisions While each of these threats would be enough to destabilize any country, it is the unrest to the south of Turkey that poses the most serious threat to Turkish stability. With Ankara committed to the ousting of the Assad regime in Syria and with the radical Islamic State militant group controlling much of that country and neighboring Iraq, a multiple-front war is underway all along Syria's southern border, with Turkey struggling to come to grips with the rapidly evolving conflict that has already drawn in the United States, Russia and a host of other countries.   Moreover, while Turkey is keen to see Assad ousted and fears the implications of the Islamic State presence to its south, the AKP-led government has focused its efforts in the south on Kurdish rebels based in northern Syria and Iraq. This has led to accusations that Ankara is supporting the Islamic State by hammering away at the one ground force that has had success against the IS, the Kurdish militias. Even as Turkey is now allowing the United States to use its Incirlik air base in southern Turkey against Islamic State targets, these accusations continue to be heard in many capitals in the region.複雑ですね。ＩＳＩＳを指示しているようなスタンスにも見えます。クルドの人々を迫害したりもしているのですね。アメリカに空港使用を許可したりもしています。トルコはアサドを指示していない。ロシアとも対立することになります。 The AKP's Power Grab While these external threats to Turkey's stability have been in place for some time now, it is the deterioration of the political situation inside Turkey that is raising fears over the future direction of the country. While the deep divisions between Turks and Kurds have been a feature of Turkish political life for decades, a number of other significant divisions within Turkey hold the threat to raise risk levels in the coming months. For example, the long-standing divisions between secular and religious groups in Turkey have widened in recent years as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has championed many religion-driven policies in recent years. Moreover, the AKP has moved in a more nationalist direction in recent months after it failed to achieve a clear victory in this past summer's parliamentary elections, leading to a failure to form a new government and new elections being scheduled for next month. As these divisions over religion, ethnicity and nationalism grow more entrenched; the potential for higher levels of internal unrest in Turkey will continue to grow.トルコの政治の衰退がありえそうです。トルコ人とクルド人の深い亀裂の政治的状況が長年続いてきているのですね。世俗派の近代的思考の人々と宗教的、民族的原理主義の人々がいて、それが宗教に重きを置くと、厳しくなるのですね。民族主義とナショナリズムの台頭による葛藤が深まると分裂、対立、紛争になりますね。

A Violent Election Season Next month's parliamentary elections in Turkey are a potential flashpoint that could dramatically increase the country's political risk levels. With the AKP blaming the pro-Kurdish HDP party for its failure to win a decisive victory in June 2015's elections, the AKP has moved to take a hard line towards Kurdish rebels in a bid to gain more of the nationalist vote next month. This has led to a major increase in violence between the supporters of these two parties. Meanwhile, the situation outside of Turkey's borders appears likely to worsen, particularly in Syria, where Russia's robust intervention in support of the Assad regime could lead to major changes on the ground in northern Syria to the detriment of Turkey's position there. Should Syria collapse entirely, or should either the Assad regime of the Islamic State emerge completely victorious in Syria, then Turkey's stability will be severely threatened. As such, Turkey is facing its most significant crisis since the foundation of modern Turkey 92 years ago and this is a crisis that could lead to a major destabilization of Turkey itself.来月の国政選挙が次を占うのですね。Ｋｕｒｄｉｓｈ支持の　ＨＤＰ政党とＡＫＰ政党の対立ですか？独立して92年以来最も厳しい政治的な選択と国家の安寧が問われている。   （つぶやき）   しかしキャンパス上空の米軍戦闘機が今日は朝からうるさい。   キャロライン・ケネディーさんに大学学長の組織は訴えたのだろか？著名なケネディー家の娘のスピーチとご本人の実在そのもののインパクトはアメリカの貴族階層のイメージですからいいのかもしれなかったのですが、もたらした彼女のスピーチは沖縄の歴史的現在に全く関与できない普通の思想の持ち主ですね。あまり期待できない方です。ああ、こんどはヘリがうるさい!   無利子の奨学金も手土産としては雀の涙だね。スピーチの中味が日米軍事連携（協調）の強調ですか。アジア太平洋の安定に寄与する米軍と米軍基地の旗振り役でしかないキャロラインさんは擬似チョムスキーにはなれないですね。アメリカの利潤保持の体現者ー大使ですからー。それを、役割を超えさせる何かを期待したかったので、彼女を招聘したのだろか？んんん？