GoogleにWhat is going on in Islam countries?などと打ち込むと英語のサイトで面白そうな記事が並んでいて読んでみたエッセイについて書いてみたいと思った。
Znetがアメリカのリベラルの声を強烈に展開していると思うのだが、昨今のZnetは支援者に献金を要求する広告が一面に来るので嫌気を感じている。断ったのに勝手に１０ドルが通帳から差し引かれている。１０＄くらいはいいかと思ってそのままにしているが、第一、地元の新聞を読むように熱心に読むわけではない。気になった時に覗いて読んでいる。その中に学生に読ませて面白そうなエッセイや論評があるかとチェックしたりするが、彼らの世界に丸ごとどっぷり浸っているわけでもない。あくまで世界の状況をどうチョムスキーなどが分析しているかに興味ある。アメリカは内部でアメリカ帝国の崩壊に導くよりベターなシステムの止揚を論で、文化運動で展開したらいいと思う。
そこで二つの論を急いで読んだ感想など。
一つはクリスチャンのBen Witherington (The World's leading evangelical scholars)のWhat in the World is Happning in the Middle East?は、キリスト教信者の視点であり分かりやすい。中東の独裁者dictatorsや君主/有力者potentatesや王族royal familiesがもはや信頼できない存在になっていること、その背景を７つの項目で分析して見せる。
１．社会メディアーー隠せない権力構造ーー外交官や軍人が権力システムから逸脱している
２．平均年齢の若さ リビヤは２４歳！ネットメディアが国や古い部族の境界を超えている！
３．基本的人権の希求ー若者や中間層は金持ちと貧乏人の格差に我慢がならない沸点にいる。自由の願望
４．何十年も抑圧的政権に忍蹂を余儀なくされた反動、民主主義を求めている
５．スンニー派とシーア派の宗教的対立。宗教界のリーダーたちの対立の深さ
６．教育の影響：英語によるコミュニケーションで世界と繋がる若者たち(男女）の知性と感性！
７．多くのトルコに見られる世俗的イスラム教徒の存在：トルコはイスラム教の信仰を持ちながら民主主義制度を施行！
８．アル・ジャジーラ 【Al Jazeera】の存在！アラビア語を話す多くの民衆が何が起こっているのか共通理解ができる。
最後に彼は自由を求め、公平さを求め、しかるべき生活をもとめる人々のためにお祈りをしようで締めくくる。そして神は偉 大なりとーー。
イスラム革命の要因は以上であるーーー。
次はーー、
Spero News --Global Intelligence のネット新聞を主催しているGeorge Fridemanのエッセイである。少し長めだが革命の歴史的推移の分析は分かりやすい。
What to Expect from Revolution in the Muslim World?
彼は１８４８年、１９６８年、１９８９年、の革命の分析、そして２０１１年の中東革命の現在と未来を予測している。あくまで過去の革命に照らして見える世界である。そして誰がそこから利潤を得るのか？氏の視点で面白かったのはデモの集団の中の若者たちの姿ではない。革命が成功するか否かは、軍隊の動向を見ろという点である。軍隊（軍人、兵士）がどこの側につくかが決め手だとーー。なるほどである。、エジプトは軍隊がデモ集団の側についた、そして？
つまりsoldiers(軍人）の動向を見ろというのは、１９８９年の革命により冷戦が終結したが、東ヨーロッパは軍隊が民衆の側についてソビエトは崩壊したとの分析に基づいている。中国の天安門広場の学生の革命も軍隊は体制側についたのでダメになったとの分析、なるほど！そしてリビアでは軍隊内部の分裂は始まっている。そうね。民衆が銃の前で倒れてもひるまず権力に立ち向かった時革命は成功する。そして強力な組織が必要。ロシアのボルシェビキのように？
この論稿の中では１８４８年の革命、１９６８年の革命、１９８９年の革命についてそれぞれの経緯と特徴について分析しているところは興味深い。成功したのは１９８９年の東ヨーロッパ革命だった。冷戦の崩壊を導いたのだ！詳細は割愛したい、興味のある方は直接英文を読まれてほしい。
中東の現在に関して彼は流動的だと結論。たしかなものがない。革命としては１８４８年と類似する。反対組織の力の弱さと固執(継続性）がないので、ここしばらくその情念は共鳴しあうだろうが、１９８９年のように体制を倒すまでに行かないだろう。新しい秩序をその地域（北アフリカ）にもたらすことができるか、どうか？その芽は育ったという考えのようだ。
イスラム圏の人々がイスラム文化・文明を基点にする独自の民主主義的国家を生み出すのは将来ありえる。この可能性を見守りたい。
以下はＳｐｅｒｏにメールを送ったら送られてきたエッセイである、リビアの状況の詳細が大手メディアよりは詳しいことが確かである。しかしお金を払って購入するニュースなので諦める。興味のある方はどうぞ！最近はネットもビジネスが盛んで情報・エッセイや論稿も買えというスタンスが多い。果たしてこのブログで金を生み出せるか疑問！でも生きるために金は必要！観念的行為も知的営みも金で支えられている！やれやれ、そこで逃げたくなる！（このエッセイはカラーの図もついていてリビアの資源と状況も見えるようになっている。利潤追求の方々にはたまらないソース源なのだろう！）
リビアの東と西の分裂が始まっているのだろうか？
This report is only a fraction of what our subscribers are getting. Preview a week of full access for only $5.
February 23, 2011 | 2226 GMT
Reuters
Libyan energy infrastructure
Summary
The heads of several oil companies in eastern Libya’s Gulf of Sidra region announced Feb. 23 they had “pledged loyalty to the people” and were splitting from Moammar Gadhafi’s regime. The Gulf of Sidra is critical to Libya’s energy exports and its major ports handle approximately 77 percent of Libya’s oil exports. It is still very early in the conflict, but if eastern forces gain control over this region, it could provide crucial strategic depth in their fight against Tripoli.
Analysis
Related Special Topic Page
Libya Unrest: Full Coverage
The directors of several oil companies in the Gulf of Sidra region of eastern Libya announced they were splitting from embattled leader Moammar Gadhafi and had “pledged loyalty to the people,” Zawya Dow Jones reported Feb. 23.
The Gulf of Sidra is critical to Libya’s energy exports. The ports of As Sidra, Marsa el Brega, Ras Lanuf, Tobruk and Zuetina handle approximately 77 percent of Libya’s oil exports. Allegiances in the Gulf of Sidra and the economic value they represent, therefore, are key to the survival of Gadhafi’s regime.
According to the report, the defecting directors came from the Arabian Gulf Oil Company and the Sirte Oil Company, both regional subsidiaries of Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation. The Benghazi-based Arabian Gulf Oil Company operates the Nafoora, Messla and Sarir oilfields in Libya; Marsa el Brega-based Sirte Oil Company runs the Marsa el Brega refinery, which has a maximum capacity of about 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), but sanctions have limited its actual production to about 18,000 bpd. The three oilfields are now allegedly under the control of the Zawiya tribe, which has threatened to stop the flow of oil to western Libya if authorities do not halt their operations against Libyan protesters. Oil appears to be flowing from the fields for now as the Zawiya tribe appears to be cooperating with oil companies, but it appears that the refinery of Marsa el Brega and several of the oilfields that supply it and other ports have fallen out of the control of the government.
(click here to enlarge image)
On Feb. 22, a Filipino information technology worker living in Benghazi told Filipino news agency GMA that he had been transferred from Benghazi to Marsa el Brega because “the military has taken control” there. Given the large-scale military defections elsewhere in the country’s east, it is unclear if the worker was speaking of Gadhafi loyalists or breakaway factions.
In addition to the statements from the oil companies, anti-Gadhafi protesters claimed control over Ajdabiya, also along the Gulf of Sidra and adjacent to the strategic port of Zuetina. While there is little anecdotal evidence from Zuetina, the protesters’ proximity is a sign that the port and oil terminal are at serious risk of falling out of the government’s control. Farther to the east, the port of Tobruk has broken away from Gadhafi, bringing with it the terminal that services the Sarir oilfield.
This also means that around three-quarters of Libya’s oil export revenue, which was $30 billion in 2009, goes abroad via the Gulf of Sidra. Additionally, the Ras Lanuf oil refinery is Libya’s largest export refinery, with a throughput of 220,000 bpd. Western Libya does have the 110,000 bpd Elephant oilfield and the Greenstream natural gas pipeline, with a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters per year, which pipes essentially all of Libya’s produced natural gas to Italy. However, the revenue from natural gas is far smaller, at only around $3.8 billion in 2009.
Currently, the fluid situation in eastern Libya makes it difficult to draw boundaries between cities controlled by pro- and anti-Gadhafi forces. While there appears to be an east-to-west domino effect, protests are still contained in individual cities, and their success in recruiting the support of local tribes, military forces or business leaders is different from city to city. Geographic limitations will further constrain the ability of protesters in these cities to coalesce for a push westward.
As of now, there are no reports of protesters taking control or business or military leaders defecting in Ras Lanuf or As Sidra. Without evidence to the contrary, STRATFOR must assume that those cities not claimed as being controlled by anti-Gadhafi forces are still under Gadhafi’s control. That being the case, it appears that the allegiance in the Gulf of Sidra is geographically split between Marsa el Brega to the east and Ras Lanuf to the west, with Ras Lanuf being more important overall to Libya’s economy.
Finally, in addition to defections in the energy industry hurting the Gadhafi regime in the immediate future, their allegiance “to the people” may provide an economic and strategic underpinning to a secessionist movement in eastern Libya. It is still very early in the conflict, and there is no indication that anti-Gadhafi forces are consolidating in eastern Libya, but control of the Gulf of Sidra could provide crucial strategic depth to a region of Libya that is breaking away from Tripoli’s control.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This analysis was just a fraction of what our subscribers enjoy, preview a week of full access for only 5 Dollars!
"I have been a member for about three weeks and find your updates and analyses outstanding. I have referred a number of friends to the site and recommended they become a member. Very nice work."
—David Kretschmer
Healthcare Executive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Without peer in open source intelligence."
—Gen. Thomas Wilkerson USMC (retired)
CEO United States Naval Institute
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"I think you do a great job with what you produce. Keep up the great writing and analysis, it's as good or better than a great deal of the classified intel briefings I used to get."
—Herb Riessen
Brigadier General (retired)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"As a subscriber paid up for the next few years, I find your thinking very refreshing and very rewarding for me personally. I have always thought the mainstream news media were a day late and a dollar short on most subtle issues. And of course elected political leaders were only interested in discussing issues in a way that would help their re-election chances."
—Ed Paules
SVP Capital Markets
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Kudos to you guys for another excellent piece. Your premium subscription is my most important out of pocket professional expense. Your insight and analysis — and willingness to admit your infrequent missed forecast — makes STRATFOR the best daily resource I have."
—Jay A. Carroll
Lt. Col. & Certified Protection Professional
＜写真はミュンヘンのダッハウ強制収容所内の展示室で撮った写真：２０１０年８月＞
Znetがアメリカのリベラルの声を強烈に展開していると思うのだが、昨今のZnetは支援者に献金を要求する広告が一面に来るので嫌気を感じている。断ったのに勝手に１０ドルが通帳から差し引かれている。１０＄くらいはいいかと思ってそのままにしているが、第一、地元の新聞を読むように熱心に読むわけではない。気になった時に覗いて読んでいる。その中に学生に読ませて面白そうなエッセイや論評があるかとチェックしたりするが、彼らの世界に丸ごとどっぷり浸っているわけでもない。あくまで世界の状況をどうチョムスキーなどが分析しているかに興味ある。アメリカは内部でアメリカ帝国の崩壊に導くよりベターなシステムの止揚を論で、文化運動で展開したらいいと思う。
そこで二つの論を急いで読んだ感想など。
一つはクリスチャンのBen Witherington (The World's leading evangelical scholars)のWhat in the World is Happning in the Middle East?は、キリスト教信者の視点であり分かりやすい。中東の独裁者dictatorsや君主/有力者potentatesや王族royal familiesがもはや信頼できない存在になっていること、その背景を７つの項目で分析して見せる。
１．社会メディアーー隠せない権力構造ーー外交官や軍人が権力システムから逸脱している
２．平均年齢の若さ リビヤは２４歳！ネットメディアが国や古い部族の境界を超えている！
３．基本的人権の希求ー若者や中間層は金持ちと貧乏人の格差に我慢がならない沸点にいる。自由の願望
４．何十年も抑圧的政権に忍蹂を余儀なくされた反動、民主主義を求めている
５．スンニー派とシーア派の宗教的対立。宗教界のリーダーたちの対立の深さ
６．教育の影響：英語によるコミュニケーションで世界と繋がる若者たち(男女）の知性と感性！
７．多くのトルコに見られる世俗的イスラム教徒の存在：トルコはイスラム教の信仰を持ちながら民主主義制度を施行！
８．アル・ジャジーラ 【Al Jazeera】の存在！アラビア語を話す多くの民衆が何が起こっているのか共通理解ができる。
最後に彼は自由を求め、公平さを求め、しかるべき生活をもとめる人々のためにお祈りをしようで締めくくる。そして神は偉 大なりとーー。
イスラム革命の要因は以上であるーーー。
次はーー、
Spero News --Global Intelligence のネット新聞を主催しているGeorge Fridemanのエッセイである。少し長めだが革命の歴史的推移の分析は分かりやすい。
What to Expect from Revolution in the Muslim World?
彼は１８４８年、１９６８年、１９８９年、の革命の分析、そして２０１１年の中東革命の現在と未来を予測している。あくまで過去の革命に照らして見える世界である。そして誰がそこから利潤を得るのか？氏の視点で面白かったのはデモの集団の中の若者たちの姿ではない。革命が成功するか否かは、軍隊の動向を見ろという点である。軍隊（軍人、兵士）がどこの側につくかが決め手だとーー。なるほどである。、エジプトは軍隊がデモ集団の側についた、そして？
つまりsoldiers(軍人）の動向を見ろというのは、１９８９年の革命により冷戦が終結したが、東ヨーロッパは軍隊が民衆の側についてソビエトは崩壊したとの分析に基づいている。中国の天安門広場の学生の革命も軍隊は体制側についたのでダメになったとの分析、なるほど！そしてリビアでは軍隊内部の分裂は始まっている。そうね。民衆が銃の前で倒れてもひるまず権力に立ち向かった時革命は成功する。そして強力な組織が必要。ロシアのボルシェビキのように？
この論稿の中では１８４８年の革命、１９６８年の革命、１９８９年の革命についてそれぞれの経緯と特徴について分析しているところは興味深い。成功したのは１９８９年の東ヨーロッパ革命だった。冷戦の崩壊を導いたのだ！詳細は割愛したい、興味のある方は直接英文を読まれてほしい。
中東の現在に関して彼は流動的だと結論。たしかなものがない。革命としては１８４８年と類似する。反対組織の力の弱さと固執(継続性）がないので、ここしばらくその情念は共鳴しあうだろうが、１９８９年のように体制を倒すまでに行かないだろう。新しい秩序をその地域（北アフリカ）にもたらすことができるか、どうか？その芽は育ったという考えのようだ。
イスラム圏の人々がイスラム文化・文明を基点にする独自の民主主義的国家を生み出すのは将来ありえる。この可能性を見守りたい。
以下はＳｐｅｒｏにメールを送ったら送られてきたエッセイである、リビアの状況の詳細が大手メディアよりは詳しいことが確かである。しかしお金を払って購入するニュースなので諦める。興味のある方はどうぞ！最近はネットもビジネスが盛んで情報・エッセイや論稿も買えというスタンスが多い。果たしてこのブログで金を生み出せるか疑問！でも生きるために金は必要！観念的行為も知的営みも金で支えられている！やれやれ、そこで逃げたくなる！（このエッセイはカラーの図もついていてリビアの資源と状況も見えるようになっている。利潤追求の方々にはたまらないソース源なのだろう！）
リビアの東と西の分裂が始まっているのだろうか？
This report is only a fraction of what our subscribers are getting. Preview a week of full access for only $5.
February 23, 2011 | 2226 GMT
Reuters
Libyan energy infrastructure
Summary
The heads of several oil companies in eastern Libya’s Gulf of Sidra region announced Feb. 23 they had “pledged loyalty to the people” and were splitting from Moammar Gadhafi’s regime. The Gulf of Sidra is critical to Libya’s energy exports and its major ports handle approximately 77 percent of Libya’s oil exports. It is still very early in the conflict, but if eastern forces gain control over this region, it could provide crucial strategic depth in their fight against Tripoli.
Analysis
Related Special Topic Page
Libya Unrest: Full Coverage
The directors of several oil companies in the Gulf of Sidra region of eastern Libya announced they were splitting from embattled leader Moammar Gadhafi and had “pledged loyalty to the people,” Zawya Dow Jones reported Feb. 23.
The Gulf of Sidra is critical to Libya’s energy exports. The ports of As Sidra, Marsa el Brega, Ras Lanuf, Tobruk and Zuetina handle approximately 77 percent of Libya’s oil exports. Allegiances in the Gulf of Sidra and the economic value they represent, therefore, are key to the survival of Gadhafi’s regime.
According to the report, the defecting directors came from the Arabian Gulf Oil Company and the Sirte Oil Company, both regional subsidiaries of Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation. The Benghazi-based Arabian Gulf Oil Company operates the Nafoora, Messla and Sarir oilfields in Libya; Marsa el Brega-based Sirte Oil Company runs the Marsa el Brega refinery, which has a maximum capacity of about 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), but sanctions have limited its actual production to about 18,000 bpd. The three oilfields are now allegedly under the control of the Zawiya tribe, which has threatened to stop the flow of oil to western Libya if authorities do not halt their operations against Libyan protesters. Oil appears to be flowing from the fields for now as the Zawiya tribe appears to be cooperating with oil companies, but it appears that the refinery of Marsa el Brega and several of the oilfields that supply it and other ports have fallen out of the control of the government.
(click here to enlarge image)
On Feb. 22, a Filipino information technology worker living in Benghazi told Filipino news agency GMA that he had been transferred from Benghazi to Marsa el Brega because “the military has taken control” there. Given the large-scale military defections elsewhere in the country’s east, it is unclear if the worker was speaking of Gadhafi loyalists or breakaway factions.
In addition to the statements from the oil companies, anti-Gadhafi protesters claimed control over Ajdabiya, also along the Gulf of Sidra and adjacent to the strategic port of Zuetina. While there is little anecdotal evidence from Zuetina, the protesters’ proximity is a sign that the port and oil terminal are at serious risk of falling out of the government’s control. Farther to the east, the port of Tobruk has broken away from Gadhafi, bringing with it the terminal that services the Sarir oilfield.
This also means that around three-quarters of Libya’s oil export revenue, which was $30 billion in 2009, goes abroad via the Gulf of Sidra. Additionally, the Ras Lanuf oil refinery is Libya’s largest export refinery, with a throughput of 220,000 bpd. Western Libya does have the 110,000 bpd Elephant oilfield and the Greenstream natural gas pipeline, with a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters per year, which pipes essentially all of Libya’s produced natural gas to Italy. However, the revenue from natural gas is far smaller, at only around $3.8 billion in 2009.
Currently, the fluid situation in eastern Libya makes it difficult to draw boundaries between cities controlled by pro- and anti-Gadhafi forces. While there appears to be an east-to-west domino effect, protests are still contained in individual cities, and their success in recruiting the support of local tribes, military forces or business leaders is different from city to city. Geographic limitations will further constrain the ability of protesters in these cities to coalesce for a push westward.
As of now, there are no reports of protesters taking control or business or military leaders defecting in Ras Lanuf or As Sidra. Without evidence to the contrary, STRATFOR must assume that those cities not claimed as being controlled by anti-Gadhafi forces are still under Gadhafi’s control. That being the case, it appears that the allegiance in the Gulf of Sidra is geographically split between Marsa el Brega to the east and Ras Lanuf to the west, with Ras Lanuf being more important overall to Libya’s economy.
Finally, in addition to defections in the energy industry hurting the Gadhafi regime in the immediate future, their allegiance “to the people” may provide an economic and strategic underpinning to a secessionist movement in eastern Libya. It is still very early in the conflict, and there is no indication that anti-Gadhafi forces are consolidating in eastern Libya, but control of the Gulf of Sidra could provide crucial strategic depth to a region of Libya that is breaking away from Tripoli’s control.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This analysis was just a fraction of what our subscribers enjoy, preview a week of full access for only 5 Dollars!
"I have been a member for about three weeks and find your updates and analyses outstanding. I have referred a number of friends to the site and recommended they become a member. Very nice work."
—David Kretschmer
Healthcare Executive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Without peer in open source intelligence."
—Gen. Thomas Wilkerson USMC (retired)
CEO United States Naval Institute
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"I think you do a great job with what you produce. Keep up the great writing and analysis, it's as good or better than a great deal of the classified intel briefings I used to get."
—Herb Riessen
Brigadier General (retired)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"As a subscriber paid up for the next few years, I find your thinking very refreshing and very rewarding for me personally. I have always thought the mainstream news media were a day late and a dollar short on most subtle issues. And of course elected political leaders were only interested in discussing issues in a way that would help their re-election chances."
—Ed Paules
SVP Capital Markets
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Kudos to you guys for another excellent piece. Your premium subscription is my most important out of pocket professional expense. Your insight and analysis — and willingness to admit your infrequent missed forecast — makes STRATFOR the best daily resource I have."
—Jay A. Carroll
Lt. Col. & Certified Protection Professional
＜写真はミュンヘンのダッハウ強制収容所内の展示室で撮った写真：２０１０年８月＞
