別の黒点。最近少し大きめの黒点も現われるようになってきましたね。
Televue 85, Scopetronix solar filter, Nagler V 16mm
スケッチをしている途中でまた地震が発生。震度4でした。
スケッチをしている途中でまた地震が発生。震度4でした。
地震以降、福島第一発電所のニュースを聞かない日はない。なかなか安心できるところまでは行っていない。そういう中で東電が何か重要なことを隠しているとか、あいつらは何をやっているのか、もうちょっと違うやり方があるのではないかという声も良く聞く。
もちろん、東電には起こったことに対する結果責任はあるとは思うけど、今彼らを非難しても何もいいことは起こらないことは間違いない。現場で働く人は放射能を被ばくしながら文字通り命をかけて働いているし、どのように問題を解決するかを昼夜を問わず真剣に考えている人たちだってたくさんいるに違いない。本当にありがたいことだと思う。高濃度の汚染水を阻止するために新聞紙を流したり、入浴剤を使ってトレースしたりしたと聞く。まさに死に物狂いの格闘が続いているのだと思う。そこにあるのは官僚主義の巨大企業ではもはやない。
東電に対する批判が目につくけど、僕は今、東電にエールを送りたい。頑張れ東電！
もちろん、東電には起こったことに対する結果責任はあるとは思うけど、今彼らを非難しても何もいいことは起こらないことは間違いない。現場で働く人は放射能を被ばくしながら文字通り命をかけて働いているし、どのように問題を解決するかを昼夜を問わず真剣に考えている人たちだってたくさんいるに違いない。本当にありがたいことだと思う。高濃度の汚染水を阻止するために新聞紙を流したり、入浴剤を使ってトレースしたりしたと聞く。まさに死に物狂いの格闘が続いているのだと思う。そこにあるのは官僚主義の巨大企業ではもはやない。
東電に対する批判が目につくけど、僕は今、東電にエールを送りたい。頑張れ東電！
故あって暗室を作ることになりそうです。ただ、あまり場所がないのでできるだけコンパクトに収めたいと思っています。まあ6つ切りの焼き付けができればと思っています。とすると液パッド３つにプリンターがおける広さが必要です。もちろん水洗も。結構場所が必要だなあ。
ランダムな現象は、ランダムであるがゆえに次に何が起こるかというのは分からない。でも、データをしばらく観察しているとその振る舞いは数学的には記述できるようになることもある。
良く知られているのが正規(ガウス)分布というやつで、平均値の周りにデータが釣鐘状の分布をするというものだ。普通のランダム過程はみんなあの分布に従うと私は思っていた。
この分布は、比較的平均値に近い値を取る確率が高く、平均値から離れるにしたがって急速に小さくなる。平均値から遠く離れた数値が実際に観察されることはまずないと考えてもよい。
ところがそういう分布をとらないランダム過程もあるのだという。それがフラクタル理論などで有名なマンデルブロにちなんでつけられたマンデルブロ過程だ。これは平均値から数値が離れてもその発生確率があまり下がらない。とんでもなく大きな値も、確率は低いとは言え発生する可能性を否定できない。
マンデルブロ過程は、得られるデータが過去のデータに依存しているような場合に起こるという。たとえばお金持ちは、お金持ちであるがゆえにさらにお金持ちになる場合とか、有名な作家の書いた本はさらに良く売れるとか、そういう場合があたるらしい。これに対してコイルを投げて表が続けて出る確率とか、人の身長の分布などというのはガウス分布に従う。確かに身長が５ｍもある人など起きる可能性はとてつもなく低く、まあ考えなくても問題にならない。
この二つのランダム過程における稀に起こる事柄の性質は全く違うにも関わらず、少ないデータを分析しただけは、その違いが分からないことがあるのだそうだ。実は対象にしているプロセスがマンデルブロ過程であるにも関わらず、ガウス過程として分析を行ってしまうことが良くあるらしい。たとえば、確率を低く見積もったものすごい被害が実現してしまったりする。株式市場で株価が暴落したりすることも、同じように考えられるらしい。多分、巨大地震の発生確率というのもマンデルブロ的なプロセスではないかと思う。だって、地震の発生確率は、その前に発生した地震の影響を受ける。
目の前で考えているプロセスの統計的な性質が分かったからと言って、未来を厳密に予測することはできない。でも、一見、起こりそうもない事柄であっても、それがマンデルプロ過程であれば、それが起こっても被害を受けないように準備をしておくことは可能だ。
逆に大当たりがでるプロセスがマンデルブロ過程であるなら、大当たりが出る可能性は必ずしも低くないことになる。そういうところでは小さな損をし続けていても、どこかでジャックポットを引く可能性が少なからずある。
過去のデータが現在のデータの発生確率に影響を与えるようなプロセスを設計することはできる。それは人の心に関係したプロセスにすればよいはずだ。以前の結果によって人の行動は大きく影響を受けるから。
参考：ナシーム・ニコラス・タレブ、”ブラックスワン”ダイアモンド社
良く知られているのが正規(ガウス)分布というやつで、平均値の周りにデータが釣鐘状の分布をするというものだ。普通のランダム過程はみんなあの分布に従うと私は思っていた。
この分布は、比較的平均値に近い値を取る確率が高く、平均値から離れるにしたがって急速に小さくなる。平均値から遠く離れた数値が実際に観察されることはまずないと考えてもよい。
ところがそういう分布をとらないランダム過程もあるのだという。それがフラクタル理論などで有名なマンデルブロにちなんでつけられたマンデルブロ過程だ。これは平均値から数値が離れてもその発生確率があまり下がらない。とんでもなく大きな値も、確率は低いとは言え発生する可能性を否定できない。
マンデルブロ過程は、得られるデータが過去のデータに依存しているような場合に起こるという。たとえばお金持ちは、お金持ちであるがゆえにさらにお金持ちになる場合とか、有名な作家の書いた本はさらに良く売れるとか、そういう場合があたるらしい。これに対してコイルを投げて表が続けて出る確率とか、人の身長の分布などというのはガウス分布に従う。確かに身長が５ｍもある人など起きる可能性はとてつもなく低く、まあ考えなくても問題にならない。
この二つのランダム過程における稀に起こる事柄の性質は全く違うにも関わらず、少ないデータを分析しただけは、その違いが分からないことがあるのだそうだ。実は対象にしているプロセスがマンデルブロ過程であるにも関わらず、ガウス過程として分析を行ってしまうことが良くあるらしい。たとえば、確率を低く見積もったものすごい被害が実現してしまったりする。株式市場で株価が暴落したりすることも、同じように考えられるらしい。多分、巨大地震の発生確率というのもマンデルブロ的なプロセスではないかと思う。だって、地震の発生確率は、その前に発生した地震の影響を受ける。
目の前で考えているプロセスの統計的な性質が分かったからと言って、未来を厳密に予測することはできない。でも、一見、起こりそうもない事柄であっても、それがマンデルプロ過程であれば、それが起こっても被害を受けないように準備をしておくことは可能だ。
逆に大当たりがでるプロセスがマンデルブロ過程であるなら、大当たりが出る可能性は必ずしも低くないことになる。そういうところでは小さな損をし続けていても、どこかでジャックポットを引く可能性が少なからずある。
過去のデータが現在のデータの発生確率に影響を与えるようなプロセスを設計することはできる。それは人の心に関係したプロセスにすればよいはずだ。以前の結果によって人の行動は大きく影響を受けるから。
参考：ナシーム・ニコラス・タレブ、”ブラックスワン”ダイアモンド社
March, 30, 2011
I came back to Japan on Sunday after visiting Chongqing, China for a few days.
Narita international airport was not busy as many foreigners have already evacuated from Japan, I guess, and there were no extra procedures such as radiation check upon arrival at Beijing airport.
I heard news that Sakura, our national flower, is officially blooming in Tokyo, and our everyday life is getting very close to that of before, at least in Tokyo.
But this apparently does not mean that everything in this country is getting back normal.
Recovery of the suffered area and stabilization of the nuclear plant will take very long time for sure.
I thank everybody giving us warm words and expressing concern.
We sincerely appreciate TOMODACHI (friend ship) project of the U.S. and other help from many countries.
I would like to contribute to the recovery process and helping the victims by whatever I can do, and I hope my short reports helped you to understand the situation in Japan better.
I came back to Japan on Sunday after visiting Chongqing, China for a few days.
Narita international airport was not busy as many foreigners have already evacuated from Japan, I guess, and there were no extra procedures such as radiation check upon arrival at Beijing airport.
I heard news that Sakura, our national flower, is officially blooming in Tokyo, and our everyday life is getting very close to that of before, at least in Tokyo.
But this apparently does not mean that everything in this country is getting back normal.
Recovery of the suffered area and stabilization of the nuclear plant will take very long time for sure.
I thank everybody giving us warm words and expressing concern.
We sincerely appreciate TOMODACHI (friend ship) project of the U.S. and other help from many countries.
I would like to contribute to the recovery process and helping the victims by whatever I can do, and I hope my short reports helped you to understand the situation in Japan better.
March 22, 2011
Stopped Escalators
Another week has started. Train operations are almost normal, but there is something not normal; dim lightings and stopped escalators. They are apparently to save electricity. In buildings, some elevators are not used for the same reason. Some ceiling lamps are also turned off in shopping stores. “Electricity meter” is appeared on Yahoo Japan web site; this meter indicates how much electricity is consumed in TEPCO service area.
Evacuation
I had to talk with a woman who is working for a trading company this morning, but she was not in her office. In returning to my email, she wrote me that she has evacuated to Osaka with her husband. Her husband is a French person, and he was told from his company to evacuate from Tokyo.
Graduation Ceremony
March is the season for graduation ceremony in Japan. Some schools with little damage held the commencement even in the suffered area. Chairs were prepared for all the graduates in the ceremony, but there are many empty chairs. Parents, teachers, and students were all crying. I could not see the news without tears.
Stopped Escalators
Another week has started. Train operations are almost normal, but there is something not normal; dim lightings and stopped escalators. They are apparently to save electricity. In buildings, some elevators are not used for the same reason. Some ceiling lamps are also turned off in shopping stores. “Electricity meter” is appeared on Yahoo Japan web site; this meter indicates how much electricity is consumed in TEPCO service area.
Evacuation
I had to talk with a woman who is working for a trading company this morning, but she was not in her office. In returning to my email, she wrote me that she has evacuated to Osaka with her husband. Her husband is a French person, and he was told from his company to evacuate from Tokyo.
Graduation Ceremony
March is the season for graduation ceremony in Japan. Some schools with little damage held the commencement even in the suffered area. Chairs were prepared for all the graduates in the ceremony, but there are many empty chairs. Parents, teachers, and students were all crying. I could not see the news without tears.
4.March 21, 2011
Information Rate decreases
Today was a national holyday, but it has been rain all day long in Tokyo. I was staying in my apartment. Media continuously broadcast the devastation in Tohoku area and the situation in the Fukushima No.1 nuclear plant. I see that information rate (new information per unit time) is gradually decreasing, and I watched news programs every one or two hours while I never turned off the TV before.
Rolling Blackout
There was no rolling blackouts imposed in Tokyo today since many business operations were stopped for the holiday, but TEPCO announced there will be tomorrow. I think the blackouts have to be imposed for long time as the situation will get much worse in summer. TEPCO can produce 34millionkW of electricity currently, but the power consumption will become 60millionkW in summer according to a news paper article.
Radiation Issue
There were no radiation standards for foods in Japan, and a tentative standard is announced a few days ago by the national government. Contamination in vegetables, milk and water based on the standard was found in the vicinity of the nuclear plant, and distribution of the foods was stopped. Professors and specialists in TV programs are telling people that the amount of radiation is not serious to people right way. The difference between amperes and volts is very easy, and the difference between 1mA and 1A is also easily understood at least for me. But the difference between “Sievert” and “Becquerel,” both units for radiation, is not clear for almost everyone including myself. In addition, since we cannot sense radiation, I think the contamination by radiation is rather psychological issue as we don’t understand the numbers anyway. Up until now, there is no panic here, but it will be very sensitive issue for sure.
Information Rate decreases
Today was a national holyday, but it has been rain all day long in Tokyo. I was staying in my apartment. Media continuously broadcast the devastation in Tohoku area and the situation in the Fukushima No.1 nuclear plant. I see that information rate (new information per unit time) is gradually decreasing, and I watched news programs every one or two hours while I never turned off the TV before.
Rolling Blackout
There was no rolling blackouts imposed in Tokyo today since many business operations were stopped for the holiday, but TEPCO announced there will be tomorrow. I think the blackouts have to be imposed for long time as the situation will get much worse in summer. TEPCO can produce 34millionkW of electricity currently, but the power consumption will become 60millionkW in summer according to a news paper article.
Radiation Issue
There were no radiation standards for foods in Japan, and a tentative standard is announced a few days ago by the national government. Contamination in vegetables, milk and water based on the standard was found in the vicinity of the nuclear plant, and distribution of the foods was stopped. Professors and specialists in TV programs are telling people that the amount of radiation is not serious to people right way. The difference between amperes and volts is very easy, and the difference between 1mA and 1A is also easily understood at least for me. But the difference between “Sievert” and “Becquerel,” both units for radiation, is not clear for almost everyone including myself. In addition, since we cannot sense radiation, I think the contamination by radiation is rather psychological issue as we don’t understand the numbers anyway. Up until now, there is no panic here, but it will be very sensitive issue for sure.
3.March 20, 2011
I received an encouraging message from Dr. Schlesinger of CMU for my report. The message makes me going further. I thank him for the encouragement. I also start to distribute these memos to CMU Japan chapter’s mailing list.
No Blackout in Weekend
Since electric consumption in industrial sectors is less in weekends, no rolling blackout is imposed. As a matter of fact, my apartment never experiences the blackout until now.
I didn’t understand why for a while.
But I guess now that this may be because a large hospital and an airbase of the self defense force nearby my apartment are exempt from the blackout, and this resulted in no blackouts in the vicinity of the facilities.
We used to complaint loud noise from the base before, but now the existence of the base may be benefiting us somehow.
I see that values of many things are reversed after the tragic rare accident, and this is just an example.
Coping with Stress
I know for sure that our stress cannot be compared with those of people in the severely suffered area.
But continuous “low level” stress from fear for radiation, aftershocks and uncertainty for our future certainly makes us uncomfortable.
In order to cope with this stress, we need something enjoyable.
For me, it is to observe the sun using a telescope.
I have a small American telescope having a Fabry–Pérot filter, so that detailed image on the sun can be observed from my apartment.
Making pencil sketches is the remedy to relieve my stress.
The Nuclear Plant
Injection of sea water to the troubled reactors by the fire department and self defense force was successful to some extent according to TV news, but, on the other hand, radiation in excess of allowed limits was detected in some milk, water, spinach near the evacuation area.
Good and bad are still mixed, and we still have a long way to go.
I deeply respect those who risked their lives in pursuing the injecting mission.
I received an encouraging message from Dr. Schlesinger of CMU for my report. The message makes me going further. I thank him for the encouragement. I also start to distribute these memos to CMU Japan chapter’s mailing list.
No Blackout in Weekend
Since electric consumption in industrial sectors is less in weekends, no rolling blackout is imposed. As a matter of fact, my apartment never experiences the blackout until now.
I didn’t understand why for a while.
But I guess now that this may be because a large hospital and an airbase of the self defense force nearby my apartment are exempt from the blackout, and this resulted in no blackouts in the vicinity of the facilities.
We used to complaint loud noise from the base before, but now the existence of the base may be benefiting us somehow.
I see that values of many things are reversed after the tragic rare accident, and this is just an example.
Coping with Stress
I know for sure that our stress cannot be compared with those of people in the severely suffered area.
But continuous “low level” stress from fear for radiation, aftershocks and uncertainty for our future certainly makes us uncomfortable.
In order to cope with this stress, we need something enjoyable.
For me, it is to observe the sun using a telescope.
I have a small American telescope having a Fabry–Pérot filter, so that detailed image on the sun can be observed from my apartment.
Making pencil sketches is the remedy to relieve my stress.
The Nuclear Plant
Injection of sea water to the troubled reactors by the fire department and self defense force was successful to some extent according to TV news, but, on the other hand, radiation in excess of allowed limits was detected in some milk, water, spinach near the evacuation area.
Good and bad are still mixed, and we still have a long way to go.
I deeply respect those who risked their lives in pursuing the injecting mission.