【ＮＱＮニューヨーク＝荒木朋】17日の米株式相場は続落。ダウ工業株30種平均は前週末比223ドル73セント安の8273ドル58セントで終えた。ハイテク株の比率が高いナスダック総合株価指数は34.80ポイント安の1482.05と、2003年5月1日以来、約5年半ぶりの安値で終えた。景気や企業業績に対する懸念が引き続き強く、売りが優勢となった。
米銀大手シティグループが全従業員の約15％に相当する5万人超を削減する計画を発表。ＪＰモルガン・チェースも数千人規模の人員削減を計画していると英紙が報じた。雇用情勢の悪化で個人消費が一段と落ち込むとの懸念を誘った。(08:27)
NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of the two remaining investment banks slipped Monday, despite news that Goldman Sachs' top executives are foregoing their bonuses this year.
The decline came as analysts cut their estimates for the companies, with a Bernstein Research analyst noting this past quarter "represented the most difficult capital market environments in the last decade."
The beaten down stock of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell $4.24, or 6.4 percent, to close at $62.49. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley dropped 81 cents, or 6.7 percent, to $11.22.
Analysts from Citi Investment Research and Bernstein Research both lowered their forecasts for the current quarter and next two years.
Citi analyst Prashant A. Bhatia predicted a loss of $1.60 per share for Goldman's fiscal fourth quarter, citing "substantial equity market declines and elevated volatility levels, as well as continued credit market turmoil." Previously, Bhatia forecast a profit of $3.70 per share.
Meanwhile, Bernstein Research analyst Brad Hintz forecast a loss of 54 cents per share for Goldman, down from a prior forecast for profit of $2.12 per share.
For Morgan Stanley, Bhatia now expects a fourth-quarter loss of 5 cents per share, compared with a prior forecast for profit of 75 cents per share. Hintz predicts a profit of 30 cents per share for the quarter, down from his prior forecast for $1.12 per share.
In an interview, Hintz said the investment banks are experiencing difficulty across all of their business lines as the economy struggles, with seemingly every strategy for turning a profit running into problems. Illiquid markets for fixed income products like corporate bonds and preferred stock, difficulty hedging and high volatility are all driving down the ability to make money, he said.
"Government trading is the only thing that is doing well," he said, referring to the sale of government bonds. "Government trading only does well when the economy is in a free fall."
"Unfortunately it's not a pretty picture for these guys," Hintz added.
There is also the factor of remaining bad bets that still need to be cleared off both companies' books. "We expect both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to take substantial writedowns on residential mortgage, commercial real estate, legacy leveraged loans, and private equity investments" in the fourth quarter, Bhatia wrote in a note to clients.
He estimated Goldman will write down $4.4 billion, reflecting private equity investments and its weakened stake in the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. He predicted $3.5 billion in writedowns from Morgan Stanley.
The lack of merger and acquisition activity, the disappearing initial public offering market and declining debt issuance also hurt business, Bhatia said.
As the markets recover, the companies will regain their footing, Hintz said. "We know that these firms will emerge on the other side alive," he said, but added, "What they have to go through for the next year could be very, very painful."
Bhatia cut his price target on Goldman to $125 from $150, but kept his price target of $30 for Morgan Stanley stock. Bernstein targets Goldman stock at $165 and Morgan Stanley at $50.
Goldman Sachs stock is down nearly 70 percent for the year to date, and Morgan Stanley shares are down more than 77 percent.
By Mark Basch, The Times-Union
Banking companies have received more attention recently, but life insurance stocks have also been in a free fall the last couple of months, particularly Prudential Financial Inc.
Prudential, which traded at nearly $90 as recently as September, dropped to a record low of $20.14 last week amid continuing concerns that insurance companies will have to raise additional capital. Prudential went public in December 2001 at $27.50 a share.
It's not just Prudential that's suffering. The entire industry has been hurt by investment losses and by potential losses from annuity products that offer minimum guaranteed returns, according to a research report last week by Goldman Sachs analyst Chris Neczypor.
"We believe the next 12-18 months will bring continued asset deterioration (most notably in the large commercial real estate mortgage portfolios) as well as increased losses from embedded guarantees in the variable annuity products. Weak equity markets will decrease annuity fee income, dislocated credit markets will negatively impact spread business, and heightened scrutiny by rating agencies and regulators will likely result in increased capital requirements," he wrote.
Neczypor put a "cautious" rating on the life insurance industry and downgraded Prudential from "neutral" to "sell." He has a "sell" rating on four of the five stocks he's covering, with only MetLife Inc. rated "neutral."
Neczypor said he does like Prudential long-term, but he doesn't see a reason to own life insurance stocks now.
"For an industry that relies heavily on ratings and perceived confidence, we believe the potential amalgamation of problematic trends could crest in a wave of rating downgrades and further diminish equity valuations," he wrote.
Prudential last week announced it was cutting its annual dividend payment from $1.15 a share last year to 58 cents this year. That move will save about $250 million in capital, according to Wachovia Securities analyst John Hall.
"Although $250 million is a fairly small amount of capital in the context of Prudential's overall long-term capital structure, which reaches to $35 billion, we think the company's action makes sense in the highly-charged market environment that exists today," he said in a research note.
Hall rates Prudential as "market perform."
