Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Chapter 4: War and Peace in The Middle East
4-2(30) Dictatorship shadows peaceful civic life
Citizens in Egypt and Israel felt relief when the Ramadan War was over. The Palestinians also shared the same feelings, who had been chased away from the land inherited for a long time ago, and escaped to Jordan, then moved to Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.
Shatila who was employed by a Japanese company that started oil development in the neutral zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia married to a distantly related Palestinian woman. He spent busy but peaceful days. Every weekend he drove a second-hand American car with his wife and visited parents living in Kuwait. The road was unpaved rough one for a while beyond the border. But from entering Burgan oil field area, comfortable paved road of double lanes continued straight to the city center of Kuwait. When Shatila arrived his father's home, he did never fail to visit the neighbors, Al-Yassin family. Two families are comrades who have moved together from Palestinian city Turkam to Jordan and even to Kuwait. The Al-Yassin got one girl named Rania in Kuwait. Shatila loved a cute and clever Rania.
In midtown of Kuwait, there were many prestigious hotels of Europe and the US origin. Inside the comfortably air-conditioned shopping center, many shops of famous brands in the world attracted shoppers. This happened because the war was over and oil boom took place. Kuwaiti people and foreigners enjoyed peace and abundance, and they hoped that such a life would last forever. The neighboring non-oil-producing countries also benefited from aid by oil-producing countries, or remittance from migrant relatives.
However, when such a peaceful life continued, it was strange that dissatisfaction had grown little by little in the heart of people. It was not lack of supply of goods. Low-income citizens were awaked to the economic disparity in their daily life and asked for change. It was dictators who took the opportunity in such atmosphere and came into the power keenly. The dictator was not a tyrant from the beginning. At first he often appeared as a person with nation-wide popularity. This phenomenon was not limited in the Middle East but found in many developing countries such as Eastern Europe, Asia, South America or Africa. But it was worthy to say that the dictatorship in the Middle East appeared intensively after the Ramadan War, and has kept power for a very long period of 30 to 40 years since then. It was surprising that some of them still keeps power.
Taking the incidents in historical order, the duration of dictatorship in the Middle East was as follows; Colonel Muammar Gaddafi in Libya (1969-2011), President Hafiz and Basher al-Assad in Syria (1971- present), President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen (1978-2012), President Saddam Hussein in Iraq (1979-2003), President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt (1981-2011), President Ben Ali in Tunisia (1987-2011) and President Omar al-Bashir in Sudan (1989-present). Shortest tenure was 24 years of Saddam Hussein in Iraq or Ben Ali in Tunisia. Assad family of Hafiz and Basher is still sitting in a dictator's chair even after nearly half century.
As you can understand from the history, it was in 1970s and 1980s that they first came to power, and the years of sliding down from power were concentrated in 2011 and 2012. This obviously implicates the result of the "Arab Spring" that began at the end of 2010.
The process of getting dictatorship was different from each other depending on the political and social situation of each countries and their ways of taking power. But some dictators had common character. Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, Hafiz al-Assad of Syria, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan were all soldiers. Military experience was the shortest course to dictator.
Take Libya's Muammar Gaddafi as an example. He overthrow the United Kingdom of Libya by the coup d'etat in 1969. He grabbed power and established Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. Jamahiriya means direct democracy. He did not allow people to call him president. Therefore people called him the supreme leader and he called himself as "colonel". Gaddafi esteemed Egyptian president Nasser who had a title of colonel during his military career. Gaddafi used carrot and stick distinctively to control tribes. At the same time, he survived in the turbulent international politics with exquisite maxim. But finally he was killed in the civil war following the aftermath of the "Arab Spring" in Tunisia and ended the dictatorship for 42 years in 2011.
(To be continued ----)
5/21 国際石油開発帝石 代表取締役の異動および役員の異動に関するお知らせ
https://www.inpex.co.jp/news/pdf/2018/20180521_d.pdf
5/21 国際石油開発帝石 組織改編等について ―アブダビ事業本部及び再生可能エネルギー・電力事業本部の新設―
https://www.inpex.co.jp/news/pdf/2018/20180521_b.pdf
5/23 Saudi Aramco Saudi Aramco Awards Contract of Haradh Increment Program
http://www.saudiaramco.com/en/home/news-media/news/haradh-increment-project-awarded.html
5/24 Total Russia: Total expands partnership with Novatek through Arctic LNG 2 project
https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/russia-total-expands-partnership-novatek-through-arctic-lng-2-project
5/25 石油連盟 石油連盟 役員体制について
www.paj.gr.jp/paj_info/press/2018/05/25-001815.html
5/25 石油連盟 月岡 石油連盟会長定例記者会見配布資料
http://www.paj.gr.jp/from_chairman/data/2018/index.html#id1814
5/25 OPEC JMMC reports record conformity level in April and pledges to address consumer anxiety over security of oil supplies
http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/4993.htm
Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Chapter 4: War and Peace in The Middle East
4-1(29) Brief tranquility: Peace between Israel and Egypt
The Yom Kippur (Ramadan) War ended on October 25, 1973. It was not as expected by Sadat who expected favorable cease-fire conditions on the Arab side with the victory in early stage. In any case a momentum of reconciliation was formed between Egypt and Israel.
Egypt and Israel had fought four times during the quarter century since the First Arab-Israeli War in 1948. Both countries were totally exhausted. War weariness mood had prevailed among the people. It was not only in the two parties that were tired with the wars in the Middle East. The United States, Israel's largest asylum, was besieged by President Nixon's international currency crisis in 1971 (Nixon shock). On the diplomatic front US could not escape from the muddy Vietnam War. US citizens were distressed deeply. The European countries that had to be taken a load of atonement for Jewish people after World War II bored the Israel’s arrogant behavior and had thought in the depth of their heart that it was enough. The mood of anti-Israel government began prevailing. Of course, it didn’t mean that Western people backed up Arabs or Muslims.
In Asia, most of countries had no deep concern and had pretended no relations with Middle East conflict. But when the Arab oil-producing countries forced the oil embargo in Ramadan War in 1973, Asian countries, especially Japan, were called up roughly from peaceful dream and affected heavily, They tried to get favor of Arab oil-producing countries.
The moment of avoidance of war was also the very thing that realist Sadat hoped. Some of other Arab leaders still kept crying out the reckless cheer calling "Beat down Israel to the Mediterranean!", But the Arab ordinary citizens felt it was a nonsense pipe dream. President Anwar Sadat shared the same feeling with ordinary citizens. An excellent army officer used to look at the reality calmly. Just a mere leader who was heated by his own speech would be defeated someday. It was acceptable that only leader himself would step down from the stage. But it would be the tragedy that thousands of soldiers had to die to make one hero. In this regard, Sadat was a wise man.
Sadat turned his stance towards the United States after the Ramadan War. His stance was contrasted with his predecessor Gamal Nasser who had been a close friend with the USSR. In the US, Henry Kissinger, Advisor for National Security and later Secretary of State, deployed Detente foreign policy with Nixon and the subsequent President Gerald Ford Jr. By Détente policy the reconciliation between the US and China was realized and the Vietnam war was over. Momentum for the peace was born all over the world. Sadat attempted to improve relationship with Israel. In 1977 he suddenly visited Israel. In 1978 the Democratic idealist James Carter took office as US President. Peace between Egypt and Israel has become real according to the change of US regime from the pro-Israel Republican Party to the liberal Democratic Party. President Carter invited two leaders of Egypt and Israel to Camp David in Washington in 1978. Both leaders agreed to sign a historical peace treaty. Accordingly, the Sinai Peninsula, which Israel occupied since the Six-Day War, was returned to Egypt.
In 1978, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menahem Beguin were honored to receive the Nobel Peace Prize as the culmination of these activities. Since the Nobel Peace Prize started in 1901, Sadat was the first Arab recipient.
Taking these facts into consideration, there might be no question that Sadat would be regarded as a peace maker of Egypt and the Arab world, even though he was not a hero in any meanings. But the reality was quite the opposite. Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel has been highly appreciated by countries other than the Arab world. Among the Arab countries, however, his policy was taken as betrayal against Palestinian fellows. Sadat was isolated both at home and abroad. Military politicians like Sadat could be hero only by winning war. However, if the war was over under the condition of uncertainty whether winning or losing, and cease-fire was brought by diplomatic skill, the ordinary citizens blamed Sadat as a "traitor".
There was another miscalculation thereafter. In 1979, the Islamic Revolution occurred in Iran. President Sadat accepted the exile of Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi of Iran on humanitarian consideration. However, the Shah trampled down Sadat's favor and skipped from Cairo to the United States. Egyptian people fiercely rebelled against this incident. They directed their condemnation to Sadat who had brought peace to the Middle East and got back the Sinai Peninsula. People were quite volatile.
In October 1981, when President Sadat has been on inspection tour of the military parade in commemoration of the Ramadan War, he was assassinated by squad of Egyptian army.
(To be continued ----)
5/14 経済産業省 西銘経済産業副大臣がアラブ首長国連邦に出張しました
http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2018/05/20180514004/20180514004.html
5/15 出光興産 役員の異動について
http://www.idemitsu.co.jp/company/news/2018/180515_5.pdf
5/15 Saudi Aramco PETRONAS, Saudi Aramco Launch Corporate Identity of Their Refinery and Petrochemical Joint Ventures in Pengerang, Malaysia
http://www.saudiaramco.com/en/home/news-media/news/refinery-and-petrochemical-jv-in-pengerang.html
5/16 Total US withdrawal from the JCPOA: Total’s position related to the South Pars 11 project in Iran
https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/us-withdrawal-jcpoa-totals-position-related-south-pars-11-project-iran
(注)本レポートは「マイライブラリー」で一括してご覧いただけます。
http://mylibrary.maeda1.jp/0440OilMajor2018-1stQtr.pdf
２．２０１７年第１四半期以降の四半期別業績の推移(続き)
（６）原油・天然ガス生産量の推移
（６－１）原油生産量(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-68.pdf 参照)
過去１年間の四半期ごとの原油生産量の推移を見るとExxonMobilが他社を引き離して5期連続でトップを守っている。ExxonMobilの生産量は５社の中でただ１社２００万B/D台を維持している。但し、同社の生産量は年間を通じて低落傾向にある。ExxonMobilに次ぐ二番手グループはShellとChevronで、その生産量は１８０万B/D前後である。両社の差は1年前の１６万B/Dから今期は３万B/Dまで縮まっている。BPとTotalは１年前に１３０万B/D台でそれぞれ４番手及び最下位でであった。しかしその後Totalの生産量が増加、BPを追い抜いて４番手になり今期は１５０万B/D近くに達している。
２０１７年第１四半期の各社の生産量はExxonMobilが２３３万B/DでShell及びChevronはそれぞれ１８７万B/D及び１７１万B/Dであった。これに次ぐBPは１３９万B/D、Totalは５社の中で最も少ない１３０万B/Dであり、これはExxonMobilの２分の１強にとどまっている。
その後ExxonMobilは第２四半期に２２７万B/Dに下落、今年第１四半期は２２２万B/Dにとどまり１年前に比べて生産量は漸減傾向にある。Shellも年間を通じて生産量は下落しており、昨年第４四半期以降はそれまでの１８０万B/D台から１７０万B/D台に落ち込んでいる。これに対してChevronは年間を通じてコンスタントに１７０万B/D台を維持しており、その結果ShellとChevronの差はほとんどなくなりつつある。
BPは１年間を通じて生産量は横ばい状態である。これに対し１年前に最下位であったTotalはその後５社の中で生産量が最も高い伸びを示し、昨年第１四半期の１３０万B/Dが今期は１４８万B/Dと１年間で１４％増加し、BPを追い抜き４位に浮上している。
（６－２）天然ガス生産量(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-69.pdf 参照)
天然ガスの生産量はExxonMobilとShellの上位グループとBP、Total、Chevronの下位グループの２極に分かれており、上位２社がほぼ毎期日量１００億立方フィート以上を生産し続けているのに対して他の３社は６０億立方フィート台の生産量にとどまっている。
但しExxonMobilとShellの上位２社の天然ガス生産量はShellが増加傾向にあるのに対して、ExxonMobilは逆に減少気味であり、年々格差が広がりつつある。今期(２０１８年第１四半期)の生産量はShellの１１９億立方フィートに対しExxonMobilは１００億立方フィートにとどまっている。Total、 Chevron、BPの３社の生産量は年間を通じて横ばいでほぼ同量である。
（６－３）原油・天然ガス合計生産量(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-65.pdf 参照)
天然ガスを石油に換算した原油・天然ガスの合計生産量の推移を見るとExxonMobilは下降気味であるが、その他の４社はわずかながら増産傾向が見られる。２０１７年第１四半期の各社の合計生産量はExxonMobilが最も多い４１５万B/Dで５社の中では唯一４００万B/D台であった。これに続くのがShellの３７５万B/D、その他３社はChevron(２６８万B/D)、Total(２５７万B/D)及びBP(２３９万B/D)でありBPはExxonMobilのほぼ６割である。
今年第１四半期の各社の生産量は、ExxonMobilが４００万B/Dを切り３８９万B/Dである。他の４社はShell ３８４万B/D、Chevron ２８５万B/D、Total ２７０万B/D、BP ２６１万B/Dであり、全社が２００万B/D台に並んでいる。対前年同期の増減率はExxonMobil -６．３％、Shell +２．３％、Chevron +６．６％、Total +５．２％であり、ExxonMobilのみが前年同期を下回り、その他４社は増加しているのが特徴である。
以上
本稿に関するコメント、ご意見をお聞かせください。
前田 高行 〒183-0027東京都府中市本町2-31-13-601
Tel/Fax; 042-360-1284, 携帯; 090-9157-3642
E-mail; maeda1@jcom.home.ne.jp
