March 2020
Afterword
Saudi Arabia recognizes Al-Saud family as the legitimacy of governance and tyrannical monarchy. Prince Muhammad bin Salman is gambling on absolute rulership. He relentlessly detains the royal family members who are against him. His overseas reputation has fallen drastically due to involvement in civil war in Yemen and the murder case of journalist Mr. Khashoggi. The reason for suppressing princes is to hinder the spread of bad publicity inside the country and to establish his strong image as political leader. It is nothing but arrogance. The bet of Crown Prince is even so far.
On the other hand, the bet of Petroleum Minister Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, who is gambling on a massive increase in crude oil production and discount sales, is in a very disadvantageous situation due to the imminent global recession triggered by the new coronavirus infection. New oil policies might backfire on the Kingdom itself. It is true that Saudi Arabia's oil policy is determined by Crown Prince Muhammad, and Abdul Aziz is nothing more than a puppet. If the oil policy fails, the return will be back to MbS. But the person who bear the primary responsibility is Prince Abdul Aziz.
If the result is terrible, Prince Abdul Aziz has to shoulder the responsibility. In the past, it was hard to imagine that prince of Saud family had taken responsibility for the results. That was the reason why technocrats like Ahmad Zaki Yamani and Ali Al-Naimi were assigned to the oil minister. Technocrats took full responsibility when the Kingdom’s oil policy came to a deadlock. No royal family members were asked their responsibility.
But the ruthless manner of Crown Prince Muhammad is no exception even to his half-brother. When Prince Alwaleed was detained on charges of corruption, blood relation with MbS were not so close. And when Prince Ahmad and two other princes were detained on charge of treason, their blood relation with MbS were much closer because both of them were members of Sudairi Seven.
Muhammad bin Salman might not hesitate to fire his half-brother. MbS would hesitate only for his father, King Salman. MbS will not be rude while King Salman is alive. But when his father passed away and MbS became king, it is not sure whether his half-brother Abdul Aziz is safe or not. (Of course, it is another matter that whether MbS can reach the thrown). The fact that they are half-brothers might result in tragedy.
Nowadays MbS seems to be lonely and skeptical. The detention after detention of princes tells it. When he will reign as king, a storm of purges strikes in Saudi Arabia, and Prince Abdul Aziz may be the victim same as Kim Jong-nam of North Korea. (He is a half-brother of Kim Jong-un.)
Will MbS continue to play wolf in sheep skin in international arena, especially in front of US President Donald Trump? Will MbS makes effort to monopolize political power and strengthen fear politics in domestic arena? However, as long as MbS flatters on US President, he has to suffer from the contradiction against his low-price and large-scale production oil policy which aimed to erase shale oil and gas industry in the US. And if he strengthens fear politics in the Kingdom, economic stagnation may be inevitable. Not only moderate royal family but also the ordinary citizens will turn into his enemies. Ultimately Islamic extremists may take over and jeopardize the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Saud dynasty in Arabia.
(Reference report) ‘The day when Saudi Arabia changes its name’ (May 2019)
End
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com
