「１・２・３・５・４８」が織りなす複雑な民意 ２０１０年６月１８日 宮崎信行
“1, 2, 3, 5, 48” the mixed implications of voters
June 18, 2010
Nobuyuki Miyazaki
第２２回参議院選挙は７月１１日（日）投票・開票と決まった。正式なスタートは、６月２４日（木）に内閣が決定し、天皇陛下が公示してからだが、通常国会が６月１６日（水）に閉会したので、事実上、すでに選挙戦のさいちゅうだ。
The 22nd Upper House Election Day is set for Sunday July 11. The official election period starts when the new Kan Cabinet confirms on the election period on Thursday June 24th and the emperor makes the public announcement. However, since the Diet was dismissed on June 16, we are already in the midst of the election period in reality.
国政選挙とはいえ参院選の位置づけは限定的だ。首相指名、予算可決など衆議院の優越は憲法に定めがある。だから、首相が菅直人かどうかは別として、「民主党政権」という枠組みは、２０１３年８月３０日の衆院議員の任期満了まで、ないしは首相（民主党代表）が衆院を解散するまで動かない。しかし、「中間テスト」である参院選によって、首相が変わったり、民主党・国民新党の２党連立のスキームが変わる可能性もある。さらに９月には、民主党代表選挙もあり、国内外が待ち望んでいる「政治の安定」にはいくつものハードルが待ち受けている。
While this election is nationwide, the actual role of the Upper House in Congress is limited. The superiority of the Lower House is stated in the constitution where it is responsible for pivotal work as the nomination of the Prime Minister and budget approval. Thus whether the PM may be Naoto Kan or someone else does not really matter since the “DPJ Administration” will continue until the Lower House reaches its term of office on August 30, 2013. Or unless the PM (the President of the DPJ) chooses to dismiss the Lower House the DPJ rule of government will not change.
However the Upper House election is considered to be a “mid-term test” where it may lead to substantial change in government depending on the outcome; the Prime Minister could step down again or the current alliance between DPJ and Kokumin Shinto Party could be reconsidered. Moreover, the DPJ is scheduled to hold its internal Presidential race in September where this implies that there are still many obstacles that may go against the long awaited hope of the people inside and outside of Japan that wishes for political stability.
さて、参院選の結果を占う前に、今回はまず、複雑な参院選のしくみを解説したい。
参院選を数式で示すと次のようになる。
Before we start predicting the outcome, let us first look into the complicated mechanism of the Upper House election. When we show it in numbers, it looks like the below:
１×２９＝２９
２×１２＝２４
３× ５＝１５
５× １＝ ５
４８× １＝４８
となる。数式が苦手な方はここだけご辛抱頂きたい。日本の有権者に横たわる参議院の不可解さを、なんとか共有していただきたい。ハッキリ言って、日本人で、参議院選挙のしくみを正確に答えられる人などマレだ。選挙事務所の中にいる人でも半分以下だろう。
For those who are not that good at numbers, I hope that you could bare this for a little while so that the mysteries which the Japanese voters themselves see in this Upper House election could be shared. Speaking honestly, there are so little who could correctly explain the mechanism behind how election is carried out and even in the national election office, there must be less than half of those who understand.
参議院は４７都道府県がそのまま、４７の選挙区区画に分かれる。そしてその県の人口に合わせて、定数が決まる。
４７都道府県の内、およそ人口１００万人前後の県は１人区で、これが２９ある。
人口が２００万人を超える北海道や福岡県は２人区でこれが１２府県になる。
そして、大阪府、愛知県（名古屋含む）や、神奈川（横浜含む）・埼玉・千葉県などが３人区で５つある。それから、東京都が５人区で１つだ。
The Upper House electoral districts are based on the existing 47 Prefectures and the number of seats is decided on the population of each area. Within the 47, the population of 29 areas is about a million which makes one seat for all of them. The 12 areas like Hokkaido and Fukuoka Prefecture has a population of over 2 million which makes the number of seats two. For Osaka, Aichi (including Nagoya), Kanagawa (including Yokohama), Saitama and Chiba Prefecture, the number of seats are 3 and there are 5 districts like this. Lastly, Tokyo has 5 seats which is the most.
また全国比例区が４８人になる。これは全国が１つだから４８×１＝４８と表現した。これは政党名でも個人名でも投票でき、各政党の議席確定後に、その仲間内で個人名投票が多い順に当選する。なので、最後の当選者が決まるのは、深夜からおそらく早朝になるだろう。
Moreover for the proportional representation seats, there are 48 in total for the entire nation. Since the numbers of seats represent the entire one country, the equation above is written as 48 x 1= 48. To vote for proportional representation seats, the voter could either write the Party or the individual candidate’s name on the ballot. After it’s known how many seats each Party won, the Party will work internally to provide the seats to the candidates who got the most votes to those with least. Thus the final winner of the Upper House election may not be known till midnight or the next day of Election Day.
複雑さはこれだけで終わらない。こうして選ばれる任期６年の参院議員は１２１人だ。参議院の定数は２４２人だから、半数の仲間は参院に残り３年後の選挙を待ちながら仲間を応援するだけで選挙戦を終える。
The complexity does not end here. The 121 elected members will remain in Upper House for 6 years. However the total number of the Upper House members is 242 which mean that half of the members will just help out their colleagues win this time around while they prepare for their own election three years from now.
この参議院の不可解さこそが、鳩山由紀夫首相と抱き合い心中で失脚した民主党の前の幹事長、小沢一郎氏のような妖怪のようなベテラン政治家の権力源である。なぜなら、「政党」は衆参両院議員で組織されるから、選挙事情や支持組織などその参院議員が抱える「事情」を知っている人間が、党首選を優位に闘える。結果として、党本部の中でのキャリアを経たベテランが参議院を権力源として、政党を操るようになる。
This complexity is the reason why political veterans and monsters like Ichiro Ozawa, who stepped down as the General Secretary of DPJ together with PM Yukio Hatoyama the other day, maintain their power. Political Parties are normally constituted by Diet Members from both the Lower and Upper House where those who want power in their own Party need to both know and understand the unique mechanism of the Upper House and the support groups in each area. Thus this results in the birth of a veteran political leader who made his career in the Party HQ and relies on the uniqueness of the Upper House as his source of power to control the whole Party. .
ぜひ、この選挙後には、参院制度の簡素化を臨みたい。半数改選は憲法４６条で決まっており、すぐに変えるのは現実的でないが、例えば、すべて全国比例区にまとめてしまうなどの改革が必要だ。
I strongly hope that the Upper House system is made simple after this election. The reelection of half the membership is written in Article 46 of the constitution thus something that could not be changed right away. Yet for example, instead of deciding on the number of seats based on the size of population in each area, amendment such as to standardize the Upper House election to the proportional representation seats system should be necessary.
さて、参院選の焦点に「消費税率の引き上げ」が急浮上している。鳩山政権は、リーマン・ショックによる法人税・所得税の減少で、前年度比９兆円の税収減という「津波」に襲われた。鳩山がわずか８ヶ月で、「マニフェスト詐欺」と呼ばれながらの退場することのボディーブローになった。
Now, the “raise in consumer tax” is all of a sudden becoming a major debate issue for the Upper House election. The former Hatoyama Administration was swept away by a Tsunami, after experiencing the Lehman Shock, finding themselves 9 trillion yen short in tax revenue compared to a year before. This eventually led them to fail in meeting the many promises written in their Manifest which generated criticism of Hatoyama being a “Manifest fraud” and had to resign in only 8 months.
仮に消費税を現行の５％から１０％に引き上げた場合、１年間の増収は国・自治体合わせて、１２兆円ほどになるから、リーマン・ショックのために発行した１年分の赤字国債を回収できる算段になる。日本ではかつて、「消費税引き上げ」を公約にして選挙を勝った首相はいない。参院選の選挙結果について、民主党に勝算があるかのような報道があるが、鵜呑みにしない方がいい。結果など誰も分からない。なぜなら、有権者のほとんどが選挙のしくみの全体像を理解していない、それが参院選なのだから。
If the consumption tax were to be raised from the current 5 % to 10 %, the annual tax surplus for the central and prefecture government will amount to 12 trillion yen. This will be enough to retrieve the national bond that Japan issued to supplement the Lehman Shock. In the past, no PM has won an election by pledging to raise the consumption tax. For this reason, while some media optimistically report that the DPJ does have a plan to win it is probably wise not to believe this 100%. No one really knows what will happen and this is even truer when the majority of the voters do not even know how the mechanism of Upper House election works.
Tokyo Inside Politics